اشترك بالحزمة الذهبية واحصل على وصول غير محدود شمرا أكاديميا
تسجيل مستخدم جديدStealed-bid Auctions: Detecting Bid Leakage via Semi-Supervised Learning
347
0
0.0
(
0
)
اسأل ChatGPT حول البحث
ﻻ يوجد ملخص باللغة العربية
Bid leakage is a corrupt scheme in a first-price sealed-bid auction in which the procurer leaks the opponents bids to a favoured participant. The rational behaviour of such participant is to bid close to the deadline in order to receive all bids, which allows him to ensure his win at the best price possible. While such behaviour does leave detectable traces in the data, the absence of bid leakage labels makes supervised classification impossible. Instead, we reduce the problem of the bid leakage detection to a positive-unlabeled classification. The key idea is to regard the losing participants as fair and the winners as possibly corrupted. This allows us to estimate the prior probability of bid leakage in the sample, as well as the posterior probability of bid leakage for each specific auction. We extract and analyze the data on 600,000 Russian procurement auctions between 2014 and 2018. We find that around 9% of the auctions are exposed to bid leakage, which results in an overall 1.5% price increase. The predicted probability of bid leakage is higher for auctions with a higher reserve price, with too low or too high number of participants, and if the winner has met the auctioneer in earlier auctions.
قيم البحث
اقرأ أيضاً
In this paper, we investigate the problem about how to bid in repeated contextual first price auctions. We consider a single bidder (learner) who repeatedly bids in the first price auctions: at each time $t$, the learner observes a context $x_tin mat
hbb{R}^d$ and decides the bid based on historical information and $x_t$. We assume a structured linear model of the maximum bid of all the others $m_t = alpha_0cdot x_t + z_t$, where $alpha_0in mathbb{R}^d$ is unknown to the learner and $z_t$ is randomly sampled from a noise distribution $mathcal{F}$ with log-concave density function $f$. We consider both emph{binary feedback} (the learner can only observe whether she wins or not) and emph{full information feedback} (the learner can observe $m_t$) at the end of each time $t$. For binary feedback, when the noise distribution $mathcal{F}$ is known, we propose a bidding algorithm, by using maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) method to achieve at most $widetilde{O}(sqrt{log(d) T})$ regret. Moreover, we generalize this algorithm to the setting with binary feedback and the noise distribution is unknown but belongs to a parametrized family of distributions. For the full information feedback with emph{unknown} noise distribution, we provide an algorithm that achieves regret at most $widetilde{O}(sqrt{dT})$. Our approach combines an estimator for log-concave density functions and then MLE method to learn the noise distribution $mathcal{F}$ and linear weight $alpha_0$ simultaneously. We also provide a lower bound result such that any bidding policy in a broad class must achieve regret at least $Omega(sqrt{T})$, even when the learner receives the full information feedback and $mathcal{F}$ is known.
Since 2019, most ad exchanges and sell-side platforms (SSPs), in the online advertising industry, shifted from second to first price auctions. Due to the fundamental difference between these auctions, demand-side platforms (DSPs) have had to update t
heir bidding strategies to avoid bidding unnecessarily high and hence overpaying. Bid shading was proposed to adjust the bid price intended for second-price auctions, in order to balance cost and winning probability in a first-price auction setup. In this study, we introduce a novel deep distribution network for optimal bidding in both open (non-censored) and closed (censored) online first-price auctions. Offline and online A/B testing results show that our algorithm outperforms previous state-of-art algorithms in terms of both surplus and effective cost per action (eCPX) metrics. Furthermore, the algorithm is optimized in run-time and has been deployed into VerizonMedia DSP as production algorithm, serving hundreds of billions of bid requests per day. Online A/B test shows that advertisers ROI are improved by +2.4%, +2.4%, and +8.6% for impression based (CPM), click based (CPC), and conversion based (CPA) campaigns respectively.
The paper studies the problem of auction design in a setting where the auctioneer accesses the knowledge of the valuation distribution only through statistical samples. A new framework is established that combines the statistical decision theory with
mechanism design. Two optimality criteria, maxmin, and equivariance, are studied along with their implications on the form of auctions. The simplest form of the equivariant auction is the average bid auction, which set individual reservation prices proportional to the average of other bids and historical samples. This form of auction can be motivated by the Gamma distribution, and it sheds new light on the estimation of the optimal price, an irregular parameter. Theoretical results show that it is often possible to use the regular parameter population mean to approximate the optimal price. An adaptive average bid estimator is developed under this idea, and it has the same asymptotic properties as the empirical Myerson estimator. The new proposed estimator has a significantly better performance in terms of value at risk and expected shortfall when the sample size is small.
We present a hierarchical architecture based on Recurrent Neural Networks (RNNs) for predicting disaggregated inflation components of the Consumer Price Index (CPI). While the majority of existing research is focused mainly on predicting the inflatio
n headline, many economic and financial entities are more interested in its partial disaggregated components. To this end, we developed the novel Hierarchical Recurrent Neural Network (HRNN) model that utilizes information from higher levels in the CPI hierarchy to improve predictions at the more volatile lower levels. Our evaluations, based on a large data-set from the US CPI-U index, indicate that the HRNN model significantly outperforms a vast array of well-known inflation prediction baselines.
Widely discredited ideas nevertheless persist. Why do people fail to ``unlearn? We study one explanation: beliefs are resistant to retractions (the revoking of earlier information). Our experimental design identifies unlearning -- i.e., updating from
retractions -- and enables its comparison with learning from equivalent new information. Across different kinds of retractions -- for instance, those consistent or contradictory with the prior, or those occurring when prior beliefs are either extreme or moderate -- subjects do not fully unlearn from retractions and update less from them than from equivalent new information. This phenomenon is not explained by most of the well-studied violations of Bayesian updating, which yield differing predictions in our design. However, it is consistent with difficulties in conditional reasoning, which have been documented in other domains and circumstances.
سجل دخول لتتمكن من نشر تعليقات
التعليقات
جاري جلب التعليقات
سجل دخول لتتمكن من متابعة معايير البحث التي قمت باختيارها
