اشترك بالحزمة الذهبية واحصل على وصول غير محدود شمرا أكاديميا
تسجيل مستخدم جديدModelling Spatial Compositional Data: Reconstructions of past land cover and uncertainties
55
0
0.0
(
0
)
تأليف
Behnaz Pirzamanbein
اسأل ChatGPT حول البحث
ﻻ يوجد ملخص باللغة العربية
In this paper, we construct a hierarchical model for spatial compositional data, which is used to reconstruct past land-cover compositions (in terms of coniferous forest, broadleaved forest, and unforested/open land) for five time periods during the past $6,000$ years over Europe. The model consists of a Gaussian Markov Random Field (GMRF) with Dirichlet observations. A block updated Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC), including an adaptive Metropolis adjusted Langevin step, is used to estimate model parameters. The sparse precision matrix in the GMRF provides computational advantages leading to a fast MCMC algorithm. Reconstructions are obtained by combining pollen-based estimates of vegetation cover at a limited number of locations with scenarios of past deforestation and output from a dynamic vegetation model. To evaluate uncertainties in the predictions a novel way of constructing joint confidence regions for the entire composition at each prediction location is proposed. The hierarchical models ability to reconstruct past land cover is evaluated through cross validation for all time periods, and by comparing reconstructions for the recent past to a present day European forest map. The evaluation results are promising and the model is able to capture known structures in past land-cover compositions.
قيم البحث
اقرأ أيضاً
We propose a versatile joint regression framework for count responses. The method is implemented in the R add-on package GJRM and allows for modelling linear and non-linear dependence through the use of several copulae. Moreover, the parameters of th
e marginal distributions of the count responses and of the copula can be specified as flexible functions of covariates. Motivated by a football application, we also discuss an extension which forces the regression coefficients of the marginal (linear) predictors to be equal via a suitable penalisation. Model fitting is based on a trust region algorithm which estimates simultaneously all the parameters of the joint models. We investigate the proposals empirical performance in two simulation studies, the first one designed for arbitrary count data, the other one reflecting football-specific settings. Finally, the method is applied to FIFA World Cup data, showing its competitiveness to the standard approach with regard to predictive performance.
We develop a new methodology for spatial regression of aggregated outputs on multi-resolution covariates. Such problems often occur with spatial data, for example in crop yield prediction, where the output is spatially-aggregated over an area and the
covariates may be observed at multiple resolutions. Building upon previous work on aggregated output regression, we propose a regression framework to synthesise the effects of the covariates at different resolutions on the output and provide uncertainty estimation. We show that, for a crop yield prediction problem, our approach is more scalable, via variational inference, than existing multi-resolution regression models. We also show that our framework yields good predictive performance, compared to existing multi-resolution crop yield models, whilst being able to provide estimation of the underlying spatial effects.
Modelling disease progression of iron deficiency anaemia (IDA) following oral iron supplement prescriptions is a prerequisite for evaluating the cost-effectiveness of oral iron supplements. Electronic health records (EHRs) from the Clinical Practice
Research Datalink (CPRD) provide rich longitudinal data on IDA disease progression in patients registered with 663 General Practitioner (GP) practices in the UK, but they also create challenges in statistical analyses. First, the CPRD data are clustered at multi-levels (i.e., GP practices and patients), but their large volume makes it computationally difficult to implement estimation of standard random effects models for multi-level data. Second, observation times in the CPRD data are irregular and could be informative about the disease progression. For example, shorter/longer gap times between GP visits could be associated with deteriorating/improving IDA. Existing methods to address informative observation times are mostly based on complex joint models, which adds more computational burden. To tackle these challenges, we develop a computationally efficient approach to modelling disease progression with EHRs data while accounting for variability at multi-level clusters and informative observation times. We apply the proposed method to the CPRD data to investigate IDA improvement and treatment intolerance following oral iron prescriptions in primary care of the UK.
Built environment features (BEFs) refer to aspects of the human constructed environment, which may in turn support or restrict health related behaviors and thus impact health. In this paper we are interested in understanding whether the spatial distr
ibution and quantity of fast food restaurants (FFRs) influence the risk of obesity in schoolchildren. To achieve this goal, we propose a two-stage Bayesian hierarchical modeling framework. In the first stage, examining the position of FFRs relative to that of some reference locations - in our case, schools - we model the distances of FFRs from these reference locations as realizations of Inhomogenous Poisson processes (IPP). With the goal of identifying representative spatial patterns of exposure to FFRs, we model the intensity functions of the IPPs using a Bayesian non-parametric viewpoint and specifying a Nested Dirichlet Process prior. The second stage model relates exposure patterns to obesity, offering two different approaches to accommodate uncertainty in the exposure patterns estimated in the first stage: in the first approach the odds of obesity at the school level is regressed on cluster indicators, each representing a major pattern of exposure to FFRs. In the second, we employ Bayesian Kernel Machine regression to relate the odds of obesity to the multivariate vector reporting the degree of similarity of a given school to all other schools. Our analysis on the influence of patterns of FFR occurrence on obesity among Californian schoolchildren has indicated that, in 2010, among schools that are consistently assigned to a cluster, there is a lower odds of obesity amongst 9th graders who attend schools with most distant FFR occurrences in a 1-mile radius as compared to others.
This paper aims to enhance our understanding of substantive questions regarding self-reported happiness and well-being through the specification and use of multi-level models. To date, there have been numerous quantitative research studies of the hap
piness of individuals, based on single-level regression models, where typically a happiness index is related to a set of explanatory variables. There are also several single-level studies comparing aggregate happiness levels between countries. Nevertheless, there have been very few studies that attempt to simultaneously take into account variations in happiness and well-being at several different levels, such as individual, household, and area. Here, multilevel models are used with data from the British Household Panel Survey to assess the nature and extent of variations in happiness and well-being to determine the relative importance of the area (district, region), household and individual characteristics on these outcomes. Moreover, having taken into account the characteristics at these different levels in the multilevel models, the paper shows how it is possible to identify any areas that are associated with especially positive or negative feelings of happiness and well-being.
سجل دخول لتتمكن من نشر تعليقات
التعليقات
جاري جلب التعليقات
سجل دخول لتتمكن من متابعة معايير البحث التي قمت باختيارها
