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We apply a semi-analytic galaxy formation model to two high resolution cosmological N-body simulations to investigate analogues of the Milky Way system. We select these according to observed properties of the Milky Way rather than by halo mass as in most previous work. For disk-dominated central galaxies with stellar mass (5--7) x 10d10Msun, the median host halo mass is 1.4 x 10d12Msun, with 1 sigma dispersion in the range [0.86, 3.1] x 10d12Msun, consistent with dynamical measurements of the Milky Way halo mass. For any given halo mass, the probability of hosting a Milky Way system is low, with a maximum of ~20% in haloes of mass ~10d12Msun. The model reproduces the V-band luminosity function and radial profile of the bright (MV < -9) Milky Way satellites. Galaxy formation in low mass haloes is found to be highly stochastic, resulting in an extremely large scatter in the relation between MV (or stellar mass) for satellites and the depth of the subhalo potential well in which they live, as measured by the maximum of the rotation curve, Vmax. We conclude that the too big to fail problem is an artifact of selecting satellites in N-body simulations according to subhalo properties: in 10% of cases we find that three or fewer of the brightest (or most massive) satellites have Vmax > 30 km/s. Our model predicts that around half of the dark matter subhaloes with Vmax > 20 km/s host satellites fainter than MV = -9 and so may be missing from existing surveys.
We present the analysis of a suite of simulations run with different particle-and grid-based cosmological hydrodynamical codes and compare them with observational data of the Milky Way. This is the first study to make comparisons of properties of gal
We present a suite of high-resolution cosmological zoom-in simulations to $z=4$ of a $10^{12},{rm M}_{odot}$ halo at $z=0$, obtained using seven contemporary astrophysical simulation codes widely used in the numerical galaxy formation community. Phys
We analyse the orbital kinematics of the Milky Way (MW) satellite system utilizing the latest systemic proper motions for 38 satellites based on data from Gaia Data Release 2. Combining these data with distance and line-of-sight velocity measurements
We study the gas distribution in the Milky Way and Andromeda using a constrained cosmological simulation of the Local Group (LG) within the context of the CLUES (Constrained Local UniversE Simulations) project. We analyse the properties of gas in the
With Gaia Data Release 2, the astronomical community is entering a new era of multidimensional surveys of the Milky Way. This new phase-space view of our Galaxy demands new tools for comparing observations to simulations of Milky-Way-mass galaxies in