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Full likelihood inference under Kingmans coalescent is a computationally challenging problem to which importance sampling (IS) and the product of approximate conditionals (PAC) method have been applied successfully. Both methods can be expressed in terms of families of intractable conditional sampling distributions (CSDs), and rely on principled approximations for accurate inference. Recently, more general $Lambda$- and $Xi$-coalescents have been observed to provide better modelling fits to some genetic data sets. We derive families of approximate CSDs for finite sites $Lambda$- and $Xi$-coalescents, and use them to obtain approximately optimal IS and PAC algorithms for $Lambda$-coalescents, yielding substantial gains in efficiency over existing methods.
Let $mathbb{T}^d_N$, $dge 2$, be the discrete $d$-dimensional torus with $N^d$ points. Place a particle at each site of $mathbb{T}^d_N$ and let them evolve as independent, nearest-neighbor, symmetric, continuous-time random walks. Each time two parti
We review recent progress in the understanding of the role of multiple- and simultaneous multiple merger coalescents as models for the genealogy in idealised and real populations with exceptional reproductive behaviour. In particular, we discuss mode
Consider a population of fixed size that evolves over time. At each time, the genealogical structure of the population can be described by a coalescent tree whose branches are traced back to the most recent common ancestor of the population. As time
Scientists and engineers employ stochastic numerical simulators to model empirically observed phenomena. In contrast to purely statistical models, simulators express scientific principles that provide powerful inductive biases, improve generalization
We consider inference about the history of a sample of DNA sequences, conditional upon the haplotype counts and the number of segregating sites observed at the present time. After deriving some theoretical results in the coalescent setting, we implem