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Assessing the consistency between short-term global temperature trends in observations and climate model projections is a challenging problem. While climate models capture many processes governing short-term climate fluctuations, they are not expected to simulate the specific timing of these somewhat random phenomena - the occurrence of which may impact the realized trend. Therefore, to assess model performance, we develop distributions of projected temperature trends from a collection of climate models running the IPCC A1B emissions scenario. We evaluate where observed trends of length 5 to 15 years fall within the distribution of model trends of the same length. We find that current trends lie near the lower limits of the model distributions, with cumulative probability-of-occurrence values typically between 5 percent and 20 percent, and probabilities below 5 percent not uncommon. Our results indicate cause for concern regarding the consistency between climate model projections and observed climate behavior under conditions of increasing anthropogenic greenhouse-gas emissions.
Assessments of impacts of climate change and future projections over the Indian region, have so far relied on a single regional climate model (RCM) - eg., the PRECIS RCM of the Hadley Centre, UK. While these assessments have provided inputs to variou
When the climate system is forced, e.g. by emission of greenhouse gases, it responds on multiple time scales. As temperatures rise, feedback processes might intensify or weaken. Current methods to analyze feedback strength, however, do not take such
In order to investigate the scope of uncertainty in projections of GCMs for Tehran province, a multi-model projection composed of 15 models is employed. The projected changes in minimum temperature, maximum temperature, precipitation, and solar radia
Based on theoretical and experimental consideration of the first (the Twomey effect) and second indirect aerosol effects the quasianalytic description of physical connection between the galactic cosmic rays intensity and the Earths cloud cover is obt
We perform a comparison of WMAP 9-year (WMAP9) and Planck 2015 cosmic microwave background (CMB) temperature power spectra across multipoles $30leqellleq1200$. We generate simulations to estimate the correlation between the two datasets due to cosmic