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We study the behavior of U.S. markets both before and after U.S. Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings, and show that the announcement of a U.S. Federal Reserve rate change causes a financial shock, where the dynamics after the announcement is described by an analogue of the Omori earthquake law. We quantify the rate n(t) of aftershocks following an interest rate change at time T, and find power-law decay which scales as n(t-T) (t-T)^-$Omega$, with $Omega$ positive. Surprisingly, we find that the same law describes the rate n(|t-T|) of pre-shocks before the interest rate change at time T. This is the first study to quantitatively relate the size of the market response to the news which caused the shock and to uncover the presence of quantifiable preshocks. We demonstrate that the news associated with interest rate change is responsible for causing both the anticipation before the announcement and the surprise after the announcement. We estimate the magnitude of financial news using the relative difference between the U. S. Treasury Bill and the Federal Funds Effective rate. Our results are consistent with the sign effect, in which bad news has a larger impact than good news. Furthermore, we observe significant volatility aftershocks, confirming a market underreaction that lasts at least 1 trading day.
The model describing market dynamics after a large financial crash is considered in terms of the stochastic differential equation of Ito. Physically, the model presents an overdamped Brownian particle moving in the nonstationary one-dimensional poten
Using a recently introduced method to quantify the time varying lead-lag dependencies between pairs of economic time series (the thermal optimal path method), we test two fundamental tenets of the theory of fixed income: (i) the stock market variatio
We investigate financial market correlations using random matrix theory and principal component analysis. We use random matrix theory to demonstrate that correlation matrices of asset price changes contain structure that is incompatible with uncorrel
We fill a void in merging empirical and phenomenological characterisation of the dynamical phase transitions in complex systems by identifying three of them on real-life financial markets. We extract and interpret the empirical, numerical, and semi-a
In informationally efficient financial markets, option prices and this implied volatility should immediately be adjusted to new information that arrives along with a jump in underlyings return, whereas gradual changes in implied volatility would indi