ترغب بنشر مسار تعليمي؟ اضغط هنا

Testing the proposed link between cosmic rays and cloud cover

82   0   0.0 ( 0 )
 نشر من قبل Terry Sloan
 تاريخ النشر 2008
  مجال البحث فيزياء
والبحث باللغة English




اسأل ChatGPT حول البحث

A decrease in the globally averaged low level cloud cover, deduced from the ISCCP infra red data, as the cosmic ray intensity decreased during the solar cycle 22 was observed by two groups. The groups went on to hypothesise that the decrease in ionization due to cosmic rays causes the decrease in cloud cover, thereby explaining a large part of the presently observed global warming. We have examined this hypothesis to look for evidence to corroborate it. None has been found and so our conclusions are to doubt it. From the absence of corroborative evidence, we estimate that less than 23%, at the 95% confidence level, of the 11-year cycle change in the globally averaged cloud cover observed in solar cycle 22 is due to the change in the rate of ionization from the solar modulation of cosmic rays.



قيم البحث

اقرأ أيضاً

Various aspects of the connection between cloud cover (CC) and cosmic rays (CR) are analysed. Many features of this connection indicate that there is no direct causal connection between low cloud cover (LCC) and CR in spite of the evident long-term c orrelation between them. However, most of these features are indirect. If only some part of the LCC is connected and varies with CR, then its value, obtained from the joint analysis of their 11-year variations, and averaged over the globe, should be most likely less than 20%. The most significant argument against a causal connection of CR and LCC is the anticorrelation between LCC and the medium cloud cover (MCC). The scenario of the parallel influence of the solar activity on the global temperature and CC on one side and CR on the other, which can lead to the observed correlations, is discussed and advocated.
Skilful prediction of the seasonal Indian summer monsoon (ISM) rainfall (ISMR) at least one season in advance has great socio-economic value. It represents a lifeline for about a sixth of the worlds population. The ISMR prediction remained a challeng ing problem with the sub-critical skills of the dynamical models attributable to limited understanding of the interaction among clouds, convection, and circulation. The variability of cloud hydrometeors (cloud ice and cloud water) in different time scales (3-7 days, 10-20 days and 30-60 days bands) are examined from re-analysis data during Indian summer monsoon (ISM). Here, we also show that the internal variability of cloud hydrometeors (particularly cloud ice) associated with the ISM sub-seasonal (synoptic + intra-seasonal) fluctuations is partly predictable as they are found to be tied with slowly varying forcing (e.g., El Ni~no and Southern Oscillation). The representation of deep convective clouds, which involve ice phase processes in a coupled climate model, strongly modulates ISMR variability in association with global predictors. The results from the two sensitivity simulations using coupled global climate model (CGCM) are provided to demonstrate the importance of the cloud hydrometeors on ISM rainfall predictability. Therefore, this study provides a scientific basis for improving the simulation of the seasonal ISMR by improving the physical processes of the cloud on a sub-seasonal time scale and motivating further research in this direction.
We re-examine past suggestions of a close link between terrestrial climate change and the Suns transit of spiral arms in its path through the Milky Way galaxy. These links produced concrete fits, deriving the unknown spiral pattern speed from terrest rial climate correlations. We test these fits against new data on spiral structure based on CO data that does not make simplifying assumptions about symmetry and circular rotation. If we compare the times of these transits to changes in the climate of Earth, not only do the claimed correlations disappear, but also we find that they cannot be resurrected for any reasonable pattern speed.
The ISM of active galaxy centers is exposed to a combination of cosmic ray, FUV and X-ray radiation. We apply PDR models to this ISM with both `normal and highly elevated (5times 10^{-15}s^-1) cosmic-ray rates and compare the results to those obtaine d for XDRs. Our existing PDR-XDR code is used to construct models over a 10^3-10^5 cm^-3 density range and for 0.16-160 erg s^-1 cm^-2 impingent fluxes. We obtain larger high J (J>10) CO ratios in PDRs when we use the highly elevated cosmic ray rate, but these are always exceeded by the corresponding XDR ratios. The [CI] 609 mum/13CO(2-1) line ratio is boosted by a factor of a few in PDRs with n~10^3 cm^-3 exposed to a high cosmic ray rate. At higher densities ratios become identical irrespective of cosmic ray flux, while XDRs always show elevated [CI] emission per CO column. The HCN/CO and HCN/HCO+ line ratios, combined with high J CO emission lines, are good diagnostics to distinguish between PDRs under either low or high cosmic ray irradiation conditions, and XDRs. Hence, the HIFI instrument on Herschel, which can detect these CO lines, will be crucial in the study of active galaxies.
Based on theoretical and experimental consideration of the first (the Twomey effect) and second indirect aerosol effects the quasianalytic description of physical connection between the galactic cosmic rays intensity and the Earths cloud cover is obt ained. It is shown that the basic equation of the Earths climate energy-balance model is described by the bifurcation equation (with respect to the temperature of the Earths surface) in the form of assembly-type catastrophe with the two governing parameters defining the variations of insolation and Earths magnetic field (or the galactic cosmic rays intensity in the atmosphere), respectively. The principle of hierarchical climatic models construction, which consists in the structural invariance of balance equations of these models evolving on different time scales, is described.
التعليقات
جاري جلب التعليقات جاري جلب التعليقات
سجل دخول لتتمكن من متابعة معايير البحث التي قمت باختيارها
mircosoft-partner

هل ترغب بارسال اشعارات عن اخر التحديثات في شمرا-اكاديميا