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We empirically investigated the relationships between the degree of efficiency and the predictability in financial time-series data. The Hurst exponent was used as the measurement of the degree of efficiency, and the hit rate calculated from the nearest-neighbor prediction method was used for the prediction of the directions of future price changes. We used 60 market indexes of various countries. We empirically discovered that the relationship between the degree of efficiency (the Hurst exponent) and the predictability (the hit rate) is strongly positive. That is, a market index with a higher Hurst exponent tends to have a higher hit rate. These results suggested that the Hurst exponent is useful for predicting future price changes. Furthermore, we also discovered that the Hurst exponent and the hit rate are useful as standards that can distinguish emerging capital markets from mature capital markets.
Although the threshold network is one of the most used tools to characterize the underlying structure of a stock market, the identification of the optimal threshold to construct a reliable stock network remains challenging. In this paper, the concept
One of the major issues studied in finance that has always intrigued, both scholars and practitioners, and to which no unified theory has yet been discovered, is the reason why prices move over time. Since there are several well-known traditional tec
The distribution of the return intervals $tau$ between volatilities above a threshold $q$ for financial records has been approximated by a scaling behavior. To explore how accurate is the scaling and therefore understand the underlined non-linear mec
Bid-ask spread is taken as an important measure of the financial market liquidity. In this article, we study the dynamics of the spread return and the spread volatility of four liquid stocks in the Chinese stock market, including the memory effect an
We investigate the probability distribution of the volatility return intervals $tau$ for the Chinese stock market. We rescale both the probability distribution $P_{q}(tau)$ and the volatility return intervals $tau$ as $P_{q}(tau)=1/bar{tau} f(tau/bar