Handling uncertainty using features from pathology: opportunities in primary care data for developing high risk cancer survival methods

More than 144 000 Australians were diagnosed with cancer in 2019. The majority will first present to their GP symptomatically, even for cancer for which screening programs exist. Diagnosing cancer in primary care is challenging due to the non-specific nature of cancer symptoms and its low prevalence. Understanding the epidemiology of cancer symptoms and patterns of presentation in patients medical history from primary care data could be important to improve earlier detection and cancer outcomes. As past medical data about a patient can be incomplete, irregular or missing, this creates additional challenges when attempting to use the patients history for any new diagnosis. Our research aims to investigate the opportunities in a patients pathology history available to a GP, initially focused on the results within the frequently ordered full blood count to determine relevance to a future high-risk cancer prognosis, and treatment outcome. We investigated how past pathology test results can lead to deriving features that can be used to predict cancer outcomes, with emphasis on patients at risk of not surviving the cancer within 2-year period. This initial work focuses on patients with lung cancer, although the methodology can be applied to other types of cancer and other data within the medical record. Our findings indicate that even in cases of incomplete or obscure patient history, hematological measures can be useful in generating features relevant for predicting cancer risk and survival. The results strongly indicate to add the use of pathology test data for potential high-risk cancer diagnosis, and the utilize additional pathology metrics or other primary care datasets even more for similar purposes.

On the Importance of Diversity in Re-Sampling for Imbalanced Data and Rare Events in Mortality Risk Models

Surgical risk increases significantly when patients present with comorbid conditions. This has resulted in the creation of numerous risk stratification tools with the objective of formulating associated surgical risk to assist both surgeons and patients in decision-making. The Surgical Outcome Risk Tool (SORT) is one of the tools developed to predict mortality risk throughout the entire perioperative period for major elective in-patient surgeries in the UK. In this study, we enhance the original SORT prediction model (UK SORT) by addressing the class imbalance within the dataset. Our proposed method investigates the application of diversity-based selection on top of common re-sampling techniques to enhance the classifiers capability in detecting minority (mortality) events. Diversity amongst training datasets is an essential factor in ensuring re-sampled data keeps an accurate depiction of the minority/majority class region, thereby solving the generalization problem of mainstream sampling approaches. We incorporate the use of the Solow-Polasky measure as a drop-in functionality to evaluate diversity, with the addition of greedy algorithms to identify and discard subsets that share the most similarity. Additionally, through empirical experiments, we prove that the performance of the classifier trained over diversity-based dataset outperforms the original classifier over ten external datasets. Our diversity-based re-sampling method elevates the performance of the UK SORT algorithm by 1.4$.

A new interval-based aggregation approach based on bagging and Interval Agreement Approach (IAA) in ensemble learning

The main aim in ensemble learning is using multiple individual classifiers outputs rather than one classifier output to aggregate them for more accurate classification. Generating an ensemble classifier generally is composed of three steps: selecting the base classifier, applying a sampling strategy to generate different individual classifiers and aggregation the classifiers outputs. This paper focuses on the classifiers outputs aggregation step and presents a new interval-based aggregation modeling using bagging resampling approach and Interval Agreement Approach (IAA) in ensemble learning. IAA is an interesting and practical aggregation approach in decision making which was introduced to combine decision makers opinions when they present their opinions by intervals. In this paper, in addition to implementing a new aggregation approach in ensemble learning, we designed some experiments to encourage researchers to use interval modeling in ensemble learning because it preserves more uncertainty and this leads to more accurate classification. For this purpose, we compared the results of implementing the proposed method to the majority vote as the most common and successful aggregation function in the literature on 10 medical data sets to show the better performance of the interval modeling and the proposed interval-based aggregation function in binary classification when it comes to ensemble learning. The results confirm the good performance of our proposed approach.

Data-Driven Regular Expressions Evolution for Medical Text Classification Using Genetic Programming

In medical fields, text classification is one of the most important tasks that can significantly reduce human workload through structured information digitization and intelligent decision support. Despite the popularity of learning-based text classification techniques, it is hard for human to understand or manually fine-tune the classification results for better precision and recall, due to the black box nature of learning. This study proposes a novel regular expression-based text classification method making use of genetic programming (GP) approaches to evolve regular expressions that can classify a given medical text inquiry with satisfactory precision and recall while allow human to read the classifier and fine-tune accordingly if necessary. Given a seed population of regular expressions (can be randomly initialized or manually constructed by experts), our method evolves a population of regular expressions according to chosen fitness function, using a novel regular expression syntax and a series of carefully chosen reproduction operators. Our method is evaluated with real-life medical text inquiries from an online healthcare provider and shows promising performance. More importantly, our method generates classifiers that can be fully understood, checked and updated by medical doctors, which are fundamentally crucial for medical related practices.

Similarity measure for aggregated fuzzy numbers from interval-valued data

This paper presents a method to compute the degree of similarity between two aggregated fuzzy numbers from intervals using the Interval Agreement Approach (IAA). The similarity measure proposed within this study contains several features and attributes, of which are novel to aggregated fuzzy numbers. The attributes completely redefined or modified within this study include area, perimeter, centroids, quartiles and the agreement ratio. The recommended weighting for each feature has been learned using Principal Component Analysis (PCA). Furthermore, an illustrative example is provided to detail the application and potential future use of the similarity measure.

Machine learning with incomplete datasets using multi-objective optimization models

Machine learning techniques have been developed to learn from complete data. When missing values exist in a dataset, the incomplete data should be preprocessed separately by removing data points with missing values or imputation. In this paper, we propose an online approach to handle missing values while a classification model is learnt. To reach this goal, we develop a multi-objective optimization model with two objective functions for imputation and model selection. We also propose three formulations for imputation objective function. We use an evolutionary algorithm based on NSGA II to find the optimal solutions as the Pareto solutions. We investigate the reliability and robustness of the proposed model using experiments by defining several scenarios in dealing with missing values and classification. We also describe how the proposed model can contribute to medical informatics. We compare the performance of three different formulations via experimental results. The proposed model results get validated by comparing with a comparable literature.

Methods of ranking for aggregated fuzzy numbers from interval-valued data

This paper primarily presents two methods of ranking aggregated fuzzy numbers from intervals using the Interval Agreement Approach (IAA). The two proposed ranking methods within this study contain the combination and application of previously proposed similarity measures, along with attributes novel to that of aggregated fuzzy numbers from interval-valued data. The shortcomings of previous measures, along with the improvements of the proposed methods, are illustrated using both a synthetic and real-world application. The real-world application regards the Technique for Order of Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS) algorithm, modified to include both the previous and newly proposed methods.

A Hybrid Pricing and Cutting Approach for the Multi-Shift Full Truckload Vehicle Routing Problem

Full truckload transportation (FTL) in the form of freight containers represents one of the most important transportation modes in international trade. Due to large volume and scale, in FTL, delivery time is often less critical but cost and service quality are crucial. Therefore, efficiently solving large scale multiple shift FTL problems is becoming more and more important and requires further research. In one of our earlier studies, a set covering model and a three-stage solution method were developed for a multi-shift FTL problem. This paper extends the previous work and presents a significantly more efficient approach by hybridising pricing and cutting strategies with metaheuristics (a variable neighbourhood search and a genetic algorithm). The metaheuristics were adopted to find promising columns (vehicle routes) guided by pricing and cuts are dynamically generated to eliminate infeasible flow assignments caused by incompatible commodities. Computational experiments on real-life and artificial benchmark FTL problems showed superior performance both in terms of computational time and solution quality, when compared with previous MIP based three-stage methods and two existing metaheuristics. The proposed cutting and heuristic pricing approach can efficiently solve large scale real-life FTL problems.

Transfer learning to enhance amenorrhea status prediction in cancer and fertility data with missing values

Collecting sufficient labelled training data for health and medical problems is difficult (Antropova, et al., 2018). Also, missing values are unavoidable in health and medical datasets and tackling the problem arising from the inadequate instances and missingness is not straightforward (Snell, et al. 2017, Sterne, et al. 2009). However, machine learning algorithms have achieved significant success in many real-world healthcare problems, such as regression and classification and these techniques could possibly be a way to resolve the issues.

Multicriteria Group Decision-Making Under Uncertainty Using Interval Data and Cloud Models

In this study, we propose a multicriteria group decision making (MCGDM) algorithm under uncertainty where data is collected as intervals. The proposed MCGDM algorithm aggregates the data, determines the optimal weights for criteria and ranks alternatives with no further input. The intervals give flexibility to experts in assessing alternatives against criteria and provide an opportunity to gain maximum information. We also propose a novel method to aggregate expert judgements using cloud models. We introduce an experimental approach to check the validity of the aggregation method. After that, we use the aggregation method for an MCGDM problem. Here, we find the optimal weights for each criterion by proposing a bilevel optimisation model. Then, we extend the technique for order of preference by similarity to ideal solution (TOPSIS) for data based on cloud models to prioritise alternatives. As a result, the algorithm can gain information from decision makers with different levels of uncertainty and examine alternatives with no more information from decision-makers. The proposed MCGDM algorithm is implemented on a case study of a cybersecurity problem to illustrate its feasibility and effectiveness. The results verify the robustness and validity of the proposed MCGDM using sensitivity analysis and comparison with other existing algorithms.