Recent work by Aplin and Lockwood [1] was interpreted by them as showing that there is a multiplying ratio of order 10$^{12}$ for the infra-red energy absorbed in the ionization produced by cosmic rays in the atmosphere to the energy content of the c
osmic rays themselves. We argue here that the interpretation of the result in terms of infra-red absorption by ionization is incorrect and that the result is therefore most likely due to a technical artefact
The Galactic cosmic ray (GCR) intensity has been postulated by others to vary cyclically with a peak to valley ratio of ~3:1, as the Solar System moves from the Spiral Arm to the Inter-Arm regions of the Galaxy. These intensities have been correlated
with global temperatures and used to support the hypothesis of GCR induced climate change. In this paper we show that the model used to deduce such a large ratio of Arm to Interarm GCR intensity requires unlikely values of some of the GCR parameters, particularly the diffusion length in the interstellar medium, if as seems likely to be the case, the diffusion is homogeneous. Comparison is made with the existing gamma ray astronomy data and this also indicates that the ratio is not large. The variation in the intensity is probably of order 10-20% and should be no more than 30% as the Solar System moves between these two regions, unless the conventional parameters of the GCR are incorrect. In addition we show that the variation of the GCR intensity, as the trajectory of the Solar System oscillates about the Galactic Plane, is too small to account for the extinctions of species as has been postulated unless, again, conventional assumptions about the GCR parameters are not correct.
A search has been made for a contribution of the changing cosmic ray intensity to the global warming observed in the last century. The cosmic ray intensity shows a strong 11 year cycle due to solar modulation and the overall rate has decreased since
1900. These changes in cosmic ray intensity are compared to those of the mean global surface temperature to attempt to quantify any link between the two. It is shown that, if such a link exists, the changing cosmic ray intensity contributes less than 8% to the increase in the mean global surface temperature observed since 1900.
A survey of the data on measured particle fluxes and the rate of ionization in the atmosphere is presented. Measurements as a function of altitude, time and cut-off rigidity are compared with simulations of particle production from cosmic rays. The s
imulations generally give a reasonable representation of the data. However, some discrepancies are found. The solar modulation of the particle fluxes is measured and found to be a factor 2.7$pm$0.8 greater than that observed for muons alone near sea level.
One of the big problems of the age concerns Global Warming, and whether it is man-made or natural. Most climatologists believe that it is very likely to be the former but some scientists (mostly non-climatologists) subscribe to the latter. Unsurprisi
ngly, the population at large is often confused and and is not convinced either way. Here we try to explain the principles of man-made global warming in a simple way. Our purpose is to try to understand the story which the climatologists are telling us through their rather complicated general circulation models. Although the effects in detail are best left to the climatologists models, we show that for the Globe as a whole the effects of man-made global warming can be demonstrated in a simple way. The simple model of only the direct heating from the absorption of infrared radiation, illustrates the main principles of the science involved. The predicted temperature increase due to the increase of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere over the last century describes reasonably well at least most of the observed temperature increase.
The production of acoustic signals from the interactions of ultra-high energy (UHE) cosmic ray neutrinos in water and ice has been studied. A new computationally fast and efficient method of deriving the signal is presented. This method allows the im
plementation of up to date parameterisations of acoustic attenuation in sea water and ice that now includes the effects of complex attenuation, where appropriate. The methods presented here have been used to compute and study the properties of the acoustic signals which would be expected from such interactions. A matrix method of parameterising the signals, which includes the expected fluctuations, is also presented. These methods are used to generate the expected signals that would be detected in acoustic UHE neutrino telescopes.
The variation with time from 1956-2002 of the globally averaged rate of ionization produced by cosmic rays in the atmosphere is deduced and shown to have a cyclic component of period roughly twice the 11 year solar cycle period. Long term variations
in the global average surface temperature as a function of time since 1956 are found to have a similar cyclic component. The cyclic variations are also observed in the solar irradiance and in the mean daily sun spot number. The cyclic variation in the cosmic ray rate is observed to be delayed by 2-4 years relative to the temperature, the solar irradiance and daily sun spot variations suggesting that the origin of the correlation is more likely to be direct solar activity than cosmic rays. Assuming that the correlation is caused by such solar activity, we deduce that the maximum recent increase in the mean surface temperature of the Earth which can be ascribed to this activity is $lesssim14%$ of the observed global warming.
A decrease in the globally averaged low level cloud cover, deduced from the ISCCP infra red data, as the cosmic ray intensity decreased during the solar cycle 22 was observed by two groups. The groups went on to hypothesise that the decrease in ioniz
ation due to cosmic rays causes the decrease in cloud cover, thereby explaining a large part of the presently observed global warming. We have examined this hypothesis to look for evidence to corroborate it. None has been found and so our conclusions are to doubt it. From the absence of corroborative evidence, we estimate that less than 23%, at the 95% confidence level, of the 11-year cycle change in the globally averaged cloud cover observed in solar cycle 22 is due to the change in the rate of ionization from the solar modulation of cosmic rays.
It has been claimed by others that observed temporal correlations of terrestrial cloud cover with `the cosmic ray intensity are causal. The possibility arises, therefore, of a connection between cosmic rays and Global Warming. If true, the implicatio
ns would be very great. We have examined this claim to look for evidence to corroborate it. So far we have not found any and so our tentative conclusions are to doubt it. Such correlations as appear are more likely to be due to the small variations in solar irradiance, which, of course, correlate with cosmic rays. We estimate that less than 15% of the 11-year cycle warming variations are due to cosmic rays and less than 2% of the warming over the last 35 years is due to this cause.
The CORSIKA program, usually used to simulate extensive cosmic ray air showers, has been adapted to work in a water or ice medium. The adapted CORSIKA code was used to simulate hadronic showers produced by neutrino interactions. The simulated showers
have been used to study the spatial distribution of the deposited energy in the showers. This allows a more precise determination of the acoustic signals produced by ultra high energy neutrinos than has been possible previously. The properties of the acoustic signals generated by such showers are described.
