Hubble Space Telescope Proper Motions along the Sagittarius Stream: I. Observations and Results for Stars in Four Fields

We present a multi-epoch Hubble Space Telescope (HST) study of stellar proper motions (PMs) for four fields spanning 200 degrees along the Sagittarius (Sgr) stream: one trailing arm field, one field near the Sgr dwarf spheroidal tidal radius, and two leading arm fields. We determine absolute PMs of dozens of individual stars per field, using established techniques that use distant background galaxies as stationary reference frame. Stream stars are identified based on combined color-magnitude diagram and PM information. The results are broadly consistent with the few existing PM measurements for the Sgr galaxy and the trailing arm. However, our new results provide the highest PM accuracy for the stream to date, the first PM measurements for the leading arm, and the first PM measurements for individual stream stars; we also serendipitously determine the PM of the globular cluster NGC~6652. In the trailing-arm field, the individual PMs allow us to kinematically separate trailing-arm stars from leading-arm stars that are 360 degrees further ahead in their orbit. Also, in three of our fields we find indications that two distinct kinematical components may exist within the same arm and wrap of the stream. Qualitative comparison of the HST data to the predictions of the Law & Majewski and Penarrubia et al. N-body models show that the PM measurements closely follow the predicted trend with Sgr longitude. This provides a successful consistency check on the PM measurements, as well as on these N-body approaches (which were not tailored to fit any PM data).

The Space Motion of Leo I: Hubble Space Telescope Proper Motion and Implied Orbit

We present the first absolute proper motion measurement of Leo I, based on two epochs of HST ACS/WFC images separated by ~5 years. The average shift of Leo I stars with respect to ~100 background galaxies implies a proper motion of (mu_W, mu_N) = (0.1140 +/- 0.0295, -0.1256 +/- 0.0293) mas/yr. The implied Galactocentric velocity vector, corrected for the reflex motion of the Sun, has radial and tangential components V_rad = 167.9 +/- 2.8 km/s and V_tan = 101.0 +/- 34.4 km/s, respectively. We study the detailed orbital history of Leo I by solving its equations of motion backward in time for a range of plausible mass models for the Milky Way and its surrounding galaxies. Leo I entered the Milky Way virial radius 2.33 +/- 0.21 Gyr ago, most likely on its first infall. It had a pericentric approach 1.05 +/- 0.09 Gyr ago at a Galactocentric distance of 91 +/- 36 kpc. We associate these time scales with characteristic time scales in Leo Is star formation history, which shows an enhanced star formation activity ~2 Gyr ago and quenching ~1 Gyr ago. There is no indication from our calculations that other galaxies have significantly influenced Leo Is orbit, although there is a small probability that it may have interacted with either Ursa Minor or Leo II within the last ~1 Gyr. For most plausible Milky Way masses, the observed velocity implies that Leo I is bound to the Milky Way. However, it may not be appropriate to include it in models of the Milky Way satellite population that assume dynamical equilibrium, given its recent infall. Solution of the complete (non-radial) timing equations for the Leo I orbit implies a Milky Way mass M_MW,vir = 3.15 (-1.36, +1.58) x 10^12 Msun, with the large uncertainty dominated by cosmic scatter. In a companion paper, we compare the new observations to the properties of Leo I subhalo analogs extracted from cosmological simulations.

The M31 Velocity Vector. III. Future Milky Way-M31-M33 Orbital Evolution, Merging, and Fate of the Sun

We study the future orbital evolution and merging of the MW-M31-M33 system, using a combination of collisionless N-body simulations and semi-analytic orbit integrations. Monte-Carlo simulations are used to explore the consequences of varying the initial phase-space and mass parameters within their observational uncertainties. The observed M31 transverse velocity implies that the MW and M31 will merge t = 5.86 (+1.61-0.72) Gyr from now, after a first pericenter at t = 3.87 (+0.42-0.32) Gyr. M31 may (probability p=41%) make a direct hit with the MW (defined here as a first-pericenter distance less than 25 kpc). Most likely, the MW and M31 will merge first, with M33 settling onto an orbit around them. Alternatively, M33 may make a direct hit with the MW first (p=9%), or M33 may get ejected from the Local Group (p=7%). The MW-M31 merger remnant will resemble an elliptical galaxy. The Sun will most likely (p=85%) end up at larger radius from the center of the MW-M31 merger remnant than its current distance from the MW center, possibly further than 50 kpc (p=10%). The Sun may (p=20%) at some time in the next 10 Gyr find itself moving through M33 (within 10 kpc), but while dynamically still bound to the MW-M31 merger remnant. The arrival and possible collision of M31 (and possibly M33) with the MW is the next major cosmic event affecting the environment of our Sun and solar system that can be predicted with some certainty. (Abridged)

The M31 Velocity Vector. II. Radial Orbit Towards the Milky Way and Implied Local Group Mass

We determine the velocity vector of M31 with respect to the Milky Way and use this to constrain the mass of the Local Group, based on HST proper-motion measurements presented in Paper I. We construct N-body models for M31 to correct the measurements for the contributions from stellar motions internal to M31. We also estimate the center-of-mass motion independently, using the kinematics of satellite galaxies of M31 and the Local Group. All estimates are mutually consistent, and imply a weighted average M31 heliocentric transverse velocity of (v_W,v_N) = (-125.2+/-30.8, -73.8+/-28.4) km/s. We correct for the reflex motion of the Sun using the most recent insights into the solar motion within the Milky Way. This implies a radial velocity of M31 with respect to the Milky Way of V_rad = -109.3+/-4.4 km/s, and a tangential velocity V_tan = 17.0 km/s (<34.3 km/s at 1-sigma confidence). Hence, the velocity vector of M31 is statistically consistent with a radial (head-on collision) orbit towards the Milky Way. We revise prior estimates for the Local Group timing mass, including corrections for cosmic bias and scatter. Bayesian combination with other mass estimates yields M_LG = M_MW(vir) + M_M31(vir) = (3.17 +/- 0.57) x 10^12 solar masses. The velocity and mass results imply at 95% confidence that M33 is bound to M31, consistent with expectation from observed tidal deformations. (Abridged)

The M31 Velocity Vector. I. Hubble Space Telescope Proper Motion Measurements

We present the first proper motion measurements for the galaxy M31. We obtained new V-band imaging data with the HST ACS/WFC and WFC3/UVIS of a spheroid field near the minor axis, an outer disk field along the major axis, and a field on the Giant Southern Stream. The data provide 5-7 year time baselines with respect to pre-existing deep first-epoch observations. We measure the positions of thousands of M31 stars and hundreds of compact background galaxies in each field. High accuracy and robustness is achieved by building and fitting a unique template for each individual object. The average proper motion for each field is obtained from the average motion of the M31 stars between the epochs with respect to the background galaxies. For the three fields, the observed proper motions (mu_W,mu_N) are (-0.0458, -0.0376), (-0.0533, -0.0104), and (-0.0179,-0.0357) mas/yr, respectively. The ability to average over large numbers of objects and over the three fields yields a final accuracy of 0.012 mas/yr. The robustness of the proper-motion measurements and uncertainties are supported by the fact that data from different instruments, taken at different times and with different telescope orientations, as well as measurements of different fields, all yield statistically consistent results. Papers II and III explore the implications for our understanding of the history, future, and mass of the Local Group. (Abridged)