[Abridged] We have only been able to comprehensively characterize the atmospheres of a handful of transiting planets, because most orbit faint stars. TESS will discover transiting planets orbiting the brightest stars, enabling, in principle, an atmos
pheric survey of 10^2 to 10^3 bright hot Jupiters and warm sub-Neptunes. Uniform observations of such a statistically significant sample would provide leverage to understand---and learn from---the diversity of short-period planets. We argue that the best way to maximize the scientific returns of TESS is with a follow-up space mission consisting of a ~1 m telescope with an optical--NIR spectrograph: it could measure molecular absorption for non-terrestrial planets, as well as eclipses and phase variations for the hottest jovians. Such a mission could observe up to 10^3 transits per year, thus enabling it to survey a large fraction of the bright (J<11) TESS planets. JWST could be used to perform detailed atmospheric characterization of the most interesting transiting targets (transit, eclipse, and---when possible---phase-resolved spectroscopy). TESS is also expected to discover a few temperate terrestrial planets transiting nearby M-Dwarfs. Characterizing these worlds will be time-intensive: JWST will need months to provide tantalizing constraints on the presence of an atmosphere, planetary rotational state, clouds, and greenhouse gases. Future flagship missions should be designed to provide better constraints on the habitability of M-Dwarf temperate terrestrial planets.
[Abridged] We present an extensive suite of terrestrial planet formation simulations that allows quantitative analysis of the stochastic late stages of planet formation. We quantify the feeding zone width, Delta a, as the mass-weighted standard devia
tion of the initial semi-major axes of the planetary embryos and planetesimals that make up the final planet. The size of a planets feeding zone in our simulations does not correlate with its final mass or semi-major axis, suggesting there is no systematic trend between a planets mass and its volatile inventory. Instead, we find that the feeding zone of any planet more massive than 0.1M_Earth is roughly proportional to the radial extent of the initial disk from which it formed: Delta a~0.25(a_max-a_min), where a_min and a_max are the inner and outer edge of the initial planetesimal disk. These wide stochastic feeding zones have significant consequences for the origin of the Moon, since the canonical scenario predicts the Moon should be primarily composed of material from Earths last major impactor (Theia), yet its isotopic composition is indistinguishable from Earth. In particular, we find that the feeding zones of Theia analogs are significantly more stochastic than the planetary analogs. Depending on our assumed initial distribution of oxygen isotopes within the planetesimal disk, we find a ~5% or less probability that the Earth and Theia will form with an isotopic difference equal to or smaller than the Earth and Moons. In fact we predict that every planetary mass body should be expected to have a unique isotopic signature. In addition, we find paucities of massive Theia analogs and high velocity moon-forming collisions, two recently proposed explanations for the Moons isotopic composition. Our work suggests that there is still no scenario for the Moons origin that explains its isotopic composition with a high probability event.
A planets emission spectrum contains information about atmospheric composition and structure. We compare the Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC) of blackbody fits and idealized spectral retrieval fits for the 44 planets with published eclipse measur
ements in multiple thermal wavebands, mostly obtained with the Spitzer Space Telescope. The evidence for spectral features depends on eclipse depth uncertainties. Spitzer has proven capable of eclipse precisions better than 1E-4 when multiple eclipses are analyzed simultaneously, but this feat has only been performed four times. It is harder to self-calibrate photometry when a single occultation is reduced and analyzed in isolation; we find that such measurements have not passed the test of repeatability. Single-eclipse measurements either have an uncertainty floor of 5E-4, or their uncertainties have been underestimated by a factor of 3. If one adopts these empirical uncertainties for single-eclipse measurements, then the evidence for molecular features all but disappears: blackbodies have better BIC than spectral retrieval for all planets, save HD 189733b, and the few planets poorly fit by blackbodies are also poorly fit by self-consistent radiative transfer models. This suggests that the features in extant broadband emission spectra are due to astrophysical and instrumental noise rather than molecular bands. Claims of stratospheric
Large terrestrial planets are expected to have muted topography and deep oceans, implying that most super-Earths should be entirely covered in water, so-called waterworlds. This is important because waterworlds lack a silicate weathering thermostat s
o their climate is predicted to be less stable than that of planets with exposed continents. In other words, the continuously habitable zone for waterworlds is much narrower than for Earth-like planets. A planets water is partitioned, however, between a surface reservoir, the ocean, and an interior reservoir, the mantle. Plate tectonics transports water between these reservoirs on geological timescales. Degassing of melt at mid-ocean ridges and serpentinization of oceanic crust depend negatively and positively on seafloor pressure, respectively, providing a stabilizing feedback on long-term ocean volume. Motivated by Earths approximately steady-state deep water cycle, we develop a two-box model of the hydrosphere and derive steady-state solutions to the water partitioning on terrestrial planets. Critically, hydrostatic seafloor pressure is proportional to surface gravity, so super-Earths with a deep water cycle will tend to store more water in the mantle. We conclude that a tectonically active terrestrial planet of any mass can maintain exposed continents if its water mass fraction is less than ~0.2%, dramatically increasing the odds that super-Earths are habitable. The greatest source of uncertainty in our study is Earths current mantle water inventory: the greater its value, the more robust planets are to inundation. Lastly, we discuss how future missions can test our hypothesis by mapping the oceans and continents of massive terrestrial planets.
[Abridged] We report Warm Spitzer full-orbit phase observations of WASP-12b at 3.6 and 4.5 micron. We are able to measure the transit depths, eclipse depths, thermal and ellipsoidal phase variations at both wavelengths. The large amplitude phase vari
ations, combined with the planets previously-measured day-side spectral energy distribution, is indicative of non-zero Bond albedo and very poor day-night heat redistribution. The transit depths in the mid-infrared indicate that the atmospheric opacity is greater at 3.6 than at 4.5 micron, in disagreement with model predictions, irrespective of C/O ratio. The secondary eclipse depths are consistent with previous studies. We do not detect ellipsoidal variations at 3.6 micron, but our parameter uncertainties -estimated via prayer-bead Monte Carlo- keep this non-detection consistent with model predictions. At 4.5 micron, on the other hand, we detect ellipsoidal variations that are much stronger than predicted. If interpreted as a geometric effect due to the planets elongated shape, these variations imply a 3:2 ratio for the planets longest:shortest axes and a relatively bright day-night terminator. If we instead presume that the 4.5 micron ellipsoidal variations are due to uncorrected systematic noise and we fix the amplitude of the variations to zero, the best fit 4.5 micron transit depth becomes commensurate with the 3.6 micron depth, within the uncertainties. The relative transit depths are then consistent with a Solar composition and short scale height at the terminator. Assuming zero ellipsoidal variations also yields a much deeper 4.5 micron eclipse depth, consistent with a Solar composition and modest temperature inversion. We suggest future observations that could distinguish between these two scenarios.
[Abridged] To simulate the kinds of observations that will eventually be obtained for exoplanets, the Deep Impact spacecraft obtained light curves of Earth at seven wavebands spanning 300-1000 nm as part of the EPOXI mission of opportunity. In this p
aper we analyze disc-integrated light curves, treating Earth as if it were an exoplanet, to determine if we can detect the presence of oceans and continents. We present two observations each spanning one day, taken at gibbous phases. The rotation of the planet leads to diurnal albedo variations of 15-30%, with the largest relative changes occuring at the reddest wavelengths. To characterize these variations in an unbiased manner we carry out a principal component analysis of the multi-band light curves; this analysis reveals that 98% of the diurnal color changes of Earth are due to only 2 dominant eigencolors. We use the time-variations of these two eigencolors to construct longitudinal maps of the Earth, treating it as a non-uniform Lambert sphere. We find that the spectral and spatial distributions of the eigencolors correspond to cloud-free continents and oceans; this despite the fact that our observations were taken on days with typical cloud cover. We also find that the near-infrared wavebands are particularly useful in distinguishing between land and water. Based on this experiment we conclude that it should be possible to infer the existence of water oceans on exoplanets with time-resolved broadband observations taken by a large space-based coronagraphic telescope.
We present results from Spitzer Space Telescope observations of the mid-infrared phase variations of three short-period extrasolar planetary systems: HD 209458, HD 179949 and 51 Peg. We gathered IRAC images in multiple wavebands at eight phases of ea
ch planets orbit. We find the uncertainty in relative photometry from one epoch to the next to be significantly larger than the photon counting error at 3.6 micron and 4.5 micron. We are able to place 2-sigma upper limits of only 2% on the phase variations at these wavelengths. At 8 micron the epoch-to-epoch systematic uncertainty is comparable to the photon counting noise and we detect a phase function for HD 179949 which is in phase with the planets orbit and with a relative peak-to-trough amplitude of 0.00141(33). Assuming that HD 179949b has a radius R_J < R_p < 1.2R_J, it must recirculate less than 21% of incident stellar energy to its night side at the 1-sigma level (where 50% signifies full recirculation). If the planet has a small Bond albedo, it must have a mass less than 2.4 M_J (1-sigma). We do not detect phase variations for the other two systems but we do place the following 2-sigma upper limits: 0.0007 for 51 Peg, and 0.0015 for HD 209458. Due to its edge-on configuration, the upper limit for HD 209458 translates, with appropriate assumptions about Bond albedo, into a lower limit on the recirculation occuring in the planets atmosphere. HD 209458b must recirculate at least 32% of incident stellar energy to its night side, at the 1-sigma level, which is consistent with other constraints on recirculation from the depth of secondary eclipse depth at 8 micron and the low optical albedo. These data indicate that different Hot Jupiter planets may experience different recirculation efficiencies.
