Anomalies drive scientific discovery -- they are associated with the cutting edge of the research frontier, and thus typically exploit data in the low signal-to-noise regime. In astronomy, the prevalence of systematics --- both known unknowns and unk
nown unknowns --- combined with increasingly large datasets, the widespread use of ad hoc estimators for anomaly detection, and the look-elsewhere effect, can lead to spurious false detections. In this informal note, I argue that anomaly detection leading to discoveries of new physics requires a combination of physical understanding, careful experimental design to avoid confirmation bias, and self-consistent statistical methods. These points are illustrated with several concrete examples from cosmology.
We present MultiModeCode, a Fortran 95/2000 package for the numerical exploration of multifield inflation models. This program facilitates efficient Monte Carlo sampling of prior probabilities for inflationary model parameters and initial conditions
and is the first publicly available code that can efficiently generate large sample-sets for inflation models with $mathcal O(100)$ fields. The code numerically solves the equations of motion for the background and first-order perturbations of multi-field inflation models with canonical kinetic terms and arbitrary potentials, providing the adiabatic, isocurvature, and tensor power spectra at the end of inflation. For models with sum-separable potentials MultiModeCode also computes the slow-roll prediction via the $delta N$ formalism for easy model exploration and validation. We pay particular attention to the isocurvature perturbations as the system approaches the adiabatic limit, showing how to avoid numerical instabilities that affect some other approaches to this problem. We demonstrate the use of MultiModeCode by exploring a few toy models. Finally, we give a concise review of multifield perturbation theory and a users manual for the program.
We explore whether multifield inflationary models make unambiguous predictions for fundamental cosmological observables. Focusing on $N$-quadratic inflation, we numerically evaluate the full perturbation equations for models with 2, 3, and $mathcal{O
}(100)$ fields, using several distinct methods for specifying the initial values of the background fields. All scenarios are highly predictive, with the probability distribution functions of the cosmological observables becoming more sharply peaked as $N$ increases. For $N=100$ fields, 95% of our Monte Carlo samples fall in the ranges $n_s in (0.9455,0.9534)$; $alpha in (-9.741,-7.047)times 10^{-4}$; $rin(0.1445,0.1449)$; and $r_mathrm{iso} in (0.02137,3.510)times 10^{-3}$ for the spectral index, running, tensor-to-scalar ratio, and isocurvature-to-adiabatic ratio, respectively. The expected amplitude of isocurvature perturbations grows with $N$, raising the possibility that many-field models may be sensitive to post-inflationary physics and suggesting new avenues for testing these scenarios.
A characteristic of D-brane inflation is that fluctuations in the inflaton field can propagate at a speed significantly less than the speed of light. This yields observable effects that are distinct from those of single-field slow roll inflation, suc
h as a modification of the inflationary consistency relation and a potentially large level of non-Gaussianities. We present a numerical algorithm that extends the inflationary flow formalism to models with general speed of sound. For an ensemble of D-brane inflation models parameterized by the Hubble parameter and the speed of sound as polynomial functions of the inflaton field, we give qualitative predictions for the key inflationary observables. We discuss various consistency relations for D-brane inflation, and compare the qualitative shapes of the warp factors we derive from the numerical models with analytical warp factors considered in the literature. Finally, we derive and apply a generalized microphysical bound on the inflaton field variation during brane inflation. While a large number of models are consistent with current cosmological constraints, almost all of these models violate the compactification constraint on the field range in four-dimensional Planck units. If the field range bound is to hold, then models with a detectable level of non-Gaussianity predict a blue scalar spectral index, and a tensor component that is far below the detection limit of any future experiment.
We compare the Infrared Dirac-Born-Infeld (IR DBI) brane inflation model to observations using a Bayesian analysis. The current data cannot distinguish it from the LambdaCDM model, but is able to give interesting constraints on various microscopic pa
rameters including the mass of the brane moduli potential, the fundamental string scale, the charge or warp factor of throats, and the number of the mobile branes. We quantify some distinctive testable predictions with stringy signatures, such as the large non-Gaussianity, and the large, but regional, running of the spectral index. These results illustrate how we may be able to probe aspects of string theory using cosmological observations.
(Abridged) We study dissipative inflation in the regime where the dissipative term takes a specific form, Gamma=Gamma(phi), analyzing two models in the weak and strong dissipative regimes with a SUSY breaking potential. After developing intuition abo
ut the predictions from these models through analytic approximations, we compute the predicted cosmological observables through full numerical evolution of the equations of motion, relating the mass scale and scale of dissipation to the characteristic amplitude and shape of the primordial power spectrum. We then use Markov Chain Monte Carlo techniques to constrain a subset of the models with cosmological data from the cosmic microwave background (WMAP three-year data) and large scale structure (SDSS Luminous Red Galaxy power spectrum). We find that the posterior distributions of the dissipative parameters are highly non-Gaussian and their allowed ranges agree well with the expectations obtained using analytic approximations. In the weak regime, only the mass scale is tightly constrained; conversely, in the strong regime, only the dissipative coefficient is tightly constrained. A lower limit is seen on the inflation scale: a sub-Planckian inflaton is disfavoured by the data. In both weak and strong regimes, we reconstruct the limits on the primordial power spectrum and show that these models prefer a {it red} spectrum, with no significant running of the index. We calculate the reheat temperature and show that the gravitino problem can be overcome with large dissipation, which in turn leads to large levels of non-Gaussianity: if dissipative inflation is to evade the gravitino problem, the predicted level of non-Gaussianity might be seen by the Planck satellite.
