In a recent preprint (CCC-predicted low-variance circles in the CMB sky and LCDM), Gurzadyan and Penrose (2011) claim for the second time to find evidence for pre-Big Bang activity in the form of concentric circles of low variance in the WMAP data. T
he same claim was made in November 2010, but quickly shown to be false by three independent groups. The culprit was simply that Gurzadyan and Penroses simulations were based on an inappropriate power spectrum. In the most recent paper, they now claim that the significance is indeed low if the simulations are based on the realization-specific WMAP spectrum (ie., the one directly measured from the sky maps and affected by cosmic variance), but not if the simulations are based on a theoretical LCDM spectrum. In this respect, we note that the three independent reanalyses all based their simulations on the LCDM spectrum, not the observed WMAP spectrum, and this alone should suffice to show that the updated claims are also incorrect. In fact, it is evident from the plots shown in their new paper that the spectrum is still incorrect, although in a different way than in their first paper. Thus, Gurzadyan and Penroses new claims are just as wrong as those made in the first paper, and for the same reason: The simulations are not based on an appropriate power spectrum. Still, while this story is of little physical interest, it may have some important implications in terms of scienctific sociology: Looking back at the background papers leading up to the present series by Gurzadyan and Penrose, in particular one introducing the Kolmogorov statistic, we believe one can find evidence that a community based and open access referee process may be more efficient at rejecting incorrect results and claims than a traditional journal based approach.
Since that very memorable day at the Beijing 2008 Olympics, a big question on every sports commentators mind has been What would the 100 meter dash world record have been, had Usain Bolt not celebrated at the end of his race? Glen Mills, Bolts coach
suggested at a recent press conference that the time could have been 9.52 seconds or better. We revisit this question by measuring Bolts position as a function of time using footage of the run, and then extrapolate into the last two seconds based on two different assumptions. First, we conservatively assume that Bolt could have maintained Richard Thompsons, the runner-up, acceleration during the end of the race. Second, based on the race development prior to the celebration, we assume that he could also have kept an acceleration of 0.5 m/s^2 higher than Thompson. In these two cases, we find that the new world record would have been 9.61 +/- 0.04 and 9.55 +/- 0.04 seconds, respectively, where the uncertainties denote 95% statistical errors.
We describe and implement an exact, flexible, and computationally efficient algorithm for joint component separation and CMB power spectrum estimation, building on a Gibbs sampling framework. Two essential new features are 1) conditional sampling of
foreground spectral parameters, and 2) joint sampling of all amplitude-type degrees of freedom (e.g., CMB, foreground pixel amplitudes, and global template amplitudes) given spectral parameters. Given a parametric model of the foreground signals, we estimate efficiently and accurately the exact joint foreground-CMB posterior distribution, and therefore all marginal distributions such as the CMB power spectrum or foreground spectral index posteriors. The main limitation of the current implementation is the requirement of identical beam responses at all frequencies, which restricts the analysis to the lowest resolution of a given experiment. We outline a future generalization to multi-resolution observations. To verify the method, we analyse simple models and compare the results to analytical predictions. We then analyze a realistic simulation with properties similar to the 3-yr WMAP data, downgraded to a common resolution of 3 degree FWHM. The results from the actual 3-yr WMAP temperature analysis are presented in a companion Letter.
Using a Gibbs sampling algorithm for joint CMB estimation and component separation, we compute the large-scale CMB and foreground posteriors of the 3-yr WMAP temperature data. Our parametric data model includes the cosmological CMB signal and instrum
ental noise, a single power law foreground component with free amplitude and spectral index for each pixel, a thermal dust template with a single free overall amplitude, and free monopoles and dipoles at each frequency. This simple model yields a surprisingly good fit to the data over the full frequency range from 23 to 94 GHz. We obtain a new estimate of the CMB sky signal and power spectrum, and a new foreground model, including a measurement of the effective spectral index over the high-latitude sky. A particularly significant result is the detection of a common spurious offset in all frequency bands of ~ -13muK, as well as a dipole in the V-band data. Correcting for these is essential when determining the effective spectral index of the foregrounds. We find that our new foreground model is in good agreement with template-based model presented by the WMAP team, but not with their MEM reconstruction. We believe the latter may be at least partially compromised by the residual offsets and dipoles in the data. Fortunately, the CMB power spectrum is not significantly affected by these issues, as our new spectrum is in excellent agreement with that published by the WMAP team. The corresponding cosmological parameters are also virtually unchanged.
We apply a previously developed Gibbs sampling framework to the foreground corrected 3-yr WMAP polarization data and compute the power spectrum and residual foreground template amplitude posterior distributions. We first analyze the co-added Q- and V
-band data, and compare our results to the likelihood code published by the WMAP team. We find good agreement, and thus verify the numerics and data processing steps of both approaches. However, we also analyze the Q- and V-bands separately, allowing for non-zero EB cross-correlations and including two individual foreground template amplitudes tracing synchrotron and dust emission. In these analyses, we find tentative evidence of systematics: The foreground tracers correlate with each of the Q- and V-band sky maps individually, although not with the co-added QV map; there is a noticeable negative EB cross-correlation at l <~ 16 in the V-band map; and finally, when relaxing the constraints on EB and BB, noticeable differences are observed between the marginalized band powers in the Q- and V-bands. Further studies of these features are imperative, given the importance of the low-l EE spectrum on the optical depth of reionization tau and the spectral index of scalar perturbations n_s.
