Off-policy evaluation (OPE) is the task of estimating the expected reward of a given policy based on offline data previously collected under different policies. Therefore, OPE is a key step in applying reinforcement learning to real-world domains suc
h as medical treatment, where interactive data collection is expensive or even unsafe. As the observed data tends to be noisy and limited, it is essential to provide rigorous uncertainty quantification, not just a point estimation, when applying OPE to make high stakes decisions. This work considers the problem of constructing non-asymptotic confidence intervals in infinite-horizon off-policy evaluation, which remains a challenging open question. We develop a practical algorithm through a primal-dual optimization-based approach, which leverages the kernel Bellman loss (KBL) of Feng et al.(2019) and a new martingale concentration inequality of KBL applicable to time-dependent data with unknown mixing conditions. Our algorithm makes minimum assumptions on the data and the function class of the Q-function, and works for the behavior-agnostic settings where the data is collected under a mix of arbitrary unknown behavior policies. We present empirical results that clearly demonstrate the advantages of our approach over existing methods.
Off-policy evaluation provides an essential tool for evaluating the effects of different policies or treatments using only observed data. When applied to high-stakes scenarios such as medical diagnosis or financial decision-making, it is crucial to p
rovide provably correct upper and lower bounds of the expected reward, not just a classical single point estimate, to the end-users, as executing a poor policy can be very costly. In this work, we propose a provably correct method for obtaining interval bounds for off-policy evaluation in a general continuous setting. The idea is to search for the maximum and minimum values of the expected reward among all the Lipschitz Q-functions that are consistent with the observations, which amounts to solving a constrained optimization problem on a Lipschitz function space. We go on to introduce a Lipschitz value iteration method to monotonically tighten the interval, which is simple yet efficient and provably convergent. We demonstrate the practical efficiency of our method on a range of benchmarks.
We consider off-policy evaluation (OPE), which evaluates the performance of a new policy from observed data collected from previous experiments, without requiring the execution of the new policy. This finds important applications in areas with high e
xecution cost or safety concerns, such as medical diagnosis, recommendation systems and robotics. In practice, due to the limited information from off-policy data, it is highly desirable to construct rigorous confidence intervals, not just point estimation, for the policy performance. In this work, we propose a new variational framework which reduces the problem of calculating tight confidence bounds in OPE into an optimization problem on a feasible set that catches the true state-action value function with high probability. The feasible set is constructed by leveraging statistical properties of a recently proposed kernel Bellman loss (Feng et al., 2019). We design an efficient computational approach for calculating our bounds, and extend it to perform post-hoc diagnosis and correction for existing estimators. Empirical results show that our method yields tight confidence intervals in different settings.
Aerial imagery has been increasingly adopted in mission-critical tasks, such as traffic surveillance, smart cities, and disaster assistance. However, identifying objects from aerial images faces the following challenges: 1) objects of interests are o
ften too small and too dense relative to the images; 2) objects of interests are often in different relative sizes; and 3) the number of objects in each category is imbalanced. A novel network structure, Points Estimated Network (PENet), is proposed in this work to answer these challenges. PENet uses a Mask Resampling Module (MRM) to augment the imbalanced datasets, a coarse anchor-free detector (CPEN) to effectively predict the center points of the small object clusters, and a fine anchor-free detector FPEN to locate the precise positions of the small objects. An adaptive merge algorithm Non-maximum Merge (NMM) is implemented in CPEN to address the issue of detecting dense small objects, and a hierarchical loss is defined in FPEN to further improve the classification accuracy. Our extensive experiments on aerial datasets visDrone and UAVDT showed that PENet achieved higher precision results than existing state-of-the-art approaches. Our best model achieved 8.7% improvement on visDrone and 20.3% on UAVDT.
Stein variational gradient descent (SVGD) is a particle-based inference algorithm that leverages gradient information for efficient approximate inference. In this work, we enhance SVGD by leveraging preconditioning matrices, such as the Hessian and F
isher information matrix, to incorporate geometric information into SVGD updates. We achieve this by presenting a generalization of SVGD that replaces the scalar-valued kernels in vanilla SVGD with more general matrix-valued kernels. This yields a significant extension of SVGD, and more importantly, allows us to flexibly incorporate various preconditioning matrices to accelerate the exploration in the probability landscape. Empirical results show that our method outperforms vanilla SVGD and a variety of baseline approaches over a range of real-world Bayesian inference tasks.
Infinite horizon off-policy policy evaluation is a highly challenging task due to the excessively large variance of typical importance sampling (IS) estimators. Recently, Liu et al. (2018a) proposed an approach that significantly reduces the variance
of infinite-horizon off-policy evaluation by estimating the stationary density ratio, but at the cost of introducing potentially high biases due to the error in density ratio estimation. In this paper, we develop a bias-reduced augmentation of their method, which can take advantage of a learned value function to obtain higher accuracy. Our method is doubly robust in that the bias vanishes when either the density ratio or the value function estimation is perfect. In general, when either of them is accurate, the bias can also be reduced. Both theoretical and empirical results show that our method yields significant advantages over previous methods.
Regression problems that have closed-form solutions are well understood and can be easily implemented when the dataset is small enough to be all loaded into the RAM. Challenges arise when data is too big to be stored in RAM to compute the closed form
solutions. Many techniques were proposed to overcome or alleviate the memory barrier problem but the solutions are often local optimal. In addition, most approaches require accessing the raw data again when updating the models. Parallel computing clusters are also expected if multiple models need to be computed simultaneously. We propose multiple learning approaches that utilize an array of sufficient statistics (SS) to address this big data challenge. This memory oblivious approach breaks the memory barrier when computing regressions with closed-form solutions, including but not limited to linear regression, weighted linear regression, linear regression with Box-Cox transformation (Box-Cox regression) and ridge regression models. The computation and update of the SS array can be handled at per row level or per mini-batch level. And updating a model is as easy as matrix addition and subtraction. Furthermore, multiple SS arrays for different models can be easily computed simultaneously to obtain multiple models at one pass through the dataset. We implemented our approaches on Spark and evaluated over the simulated datasets. Results showed our approaches can achieve closed-form solutions of multiple models at the cost of half training time of the traditional methods for a single model.
We consider the off-policy estimation problem of estimating the expected reward of a target policy using samples collected by a different behavior policy. Importance sampling (IS) has been a key technique to derive (nearly) unbiased estimators, but i
s known to suffer from an excessively high variance in long-horizon problems. In the extreme case of in infinite-horizon problems, the variance of an IS-based estimator may even be unbounded. In this paper, we propose a new off-policy estimation method that applies IS directly on the stationary state-visitation distributions to avoid the exploding variance issue faced by existing estimators.Our key contribution is a novel approach to estimating the density ratio of two stationary distributions, with trajectories sampled from only the behavior distribution. We develop a mini-max loss function for the estimation problem, and derive a closed-form solution for the case of RKHS. We support our method with both theoretical and empirical analyses.
