Dynamic Pricing and Learning under the Bass Model

We consider a novel formulation of the dynamic pricing and demand learning problem, where the evolution of demand in response to posted prices is governed by a stochastic variant of the popular Bass model with parameters $alpha, beta$ that are linked to the so-called innovation and imitation effects. Unlike the more commonly used i.i.d. and contextual demand models, in this model the posted price not only affects the demand and the revenue in the current round but also the future evolution of demand, and hence the fraction of potential market size $m$ that can be ultimately captured. In this paper, we consider the more challenging incomplete information problem where dynamic pricing is applied in conjunction with learning the unknown parameters, with the objective of optimizing the cumulative revenues over a given selling horizon of length $T$. Equivalently, the goal is to minimize the regret which measures the revenue loss of the algorithm relative to the optimal expected revenue achievable under the stochastic Bass model with market size $m$ and time horizon $T$. Our main contribution is the development of an algorithm that satisfies a high probability regret guarantee of order $tilde O(m^{2/3})$; where the market size $m$ is known a priori. Moreover, we show that no algorithm can incur smaller order of loss by deriving a matching lower bound. Unlike most regret analysis results, in the present problem the market size $m$ is the fundamental driver of the complexity; our lower bound in fact, indicates that for any fixed $alpha, beta$, most non-trivial instances of the problem have constant $T$ and large $m$. We believe that this insight sets the problem of dynamic pricing under the Bass model apart from the typical i.i.d. setting and multi-armed bandit based models for dynamic pricing, which typically focus only on the asymptotics with respect to time horizon $T$.

Targeting and Signaling in Ad Auctions

Modern ad auctions allow advertisers to target more specific segments of the user population. Unfortunately, this is not always in the best interest of the ad platform. In this paper, we examine the following basic question in the context of second-price ad auctions: how should an ad platform optimally reveal information about the ad opportunity to the advertisers in order to maximize revenue? We consider a model in which bidders valuations depend on a random state of the ad opportunity. Different from previous work, we focus on a more practical, and challenging, situation where the space of possible realizations of ad opportunities is extremely large. We thus focus on developing algorithms whose running time is independent of the number of ad opportunity realizations. We examine the auctioneers algorithmic question of designing the optimal signaling scheme. When the auctioneer is restricted to send a public signal to all bidders, we focus on a well-motivated Bayesian valuation setting in which the auctioneer and bidders both have private information, and present two main results: 1. we exhibit a characterization result regarding approximately optimal schemes and prove that any constant-approximate public signaling scheme must use exponentially many signals; 2. we present a simple public signaling scheme that serves as a constant approximation under mild assumptions. We then initiate an exploration on the power of being able to send different signals privately to different bidders. Here we examine a basic setting where the auctioneer knows bidders valuations, and exhibit a polynomial-time private scheme that extracts almost full surplus even in the worst Bayes Nash equilibrium. This illustrates the surprising power of private signaling schemes in extracting revenue.

MNL-Bandit: A Dynamic Learning Approach to Assortment Selection

We consider a dynamic assortment selection problem, where in every round the retailer offers a subset (assortment) of $N$ substitutable products to a consumer, who selects one of these products according to a multinomial logit (MNL) choice model. The retailer observes this choice and the objective is to dynamically learn the model parameters, while optimizing cumulative revenues over a selling horizon of length $T$. We refer to this exploration-exploitation formulation as the MNL-Bandit problem. Existing methods for this problem follow an explore-then-exploit approach, which estimate parameters to a desired accuracy and then, treating these estimates as if they are the correct parameter values, offers the optimal assortment based on these estimates. These approaches require certain a priori knowledge of separability, determined by the true parameters of the underlying MNL model, and this in turn is critical in determining the length of the exploration period. (Separability refers to the distinguishability of the true optimal assortment from the other sub-optimal alternatives.) In this paper, we give an efficient algorithm that simultaneously explores and exploits, achieving performance independent of the underlying parameters. The algorithm can be implemented in a fully online manner, without knowledge of the horizon length $T$. Furthermore, the algorithm is adaptive in the sense that its performance is near-optimal in both the well separated case, as well as the general parameter setting where this separation need not hold.

Thompson Sampling for the MNL-Bandit

We consider a sequential subset selection problem under parameter uncertainty, where at each time step, the decision maker selects a subset of cardinality $K$ from $N$ possible items (arms), and observes a (bandit) feedback in the form of the index of one of the items in said subset, or none. Each item in the index set is ascribed a certain value (reward), and the feedback is governed by a Multinomial Logit (MNL) choice model whose parameters are a priori unknown. The objective of the decision maker is to maximize the expected cumulative rewards over a finite horizon $T$, or alternatively, minimize the regret relative to an oracle that knows the MNL parameters. We refer to this as the MNL-Bandit problem. This problem is representative of a larger family of exploration-exploitation problems that involve a combinatorial objective, and arise in several important application domains. We present an approach to adapt Thompson Sampling to this problem and show that it achieves near-optimal regret as well as attractive numerical performance.

Linear Contextual Bandits with Knapsacks

We consider the linear contextual bandit problem with resource consumption, in addition to reward generation. In each round, the outcome of pulling an arm is a reward as well as a vector of resource consumptions. The expected values of these outcomes depend linearly on the context of that arm. The budget/capacity constraints require that the total consumption doesnt exceed the budget for each resource. The objective is once again to maximize the total reward. This problem turns out to be a common generalization of classic linear contextual bandits (linContextual), bandits with knapsacks (BwK), and the online stochastic packing problem (OSPP). We present algorithms with near-optimal regret bounds for this problem. Our bounds compare favorably to results on the unstructured version of the problem where the relation between the contexts and the outcomes could be arbitrary, but the algorithm only competes against a fixed set of policies accessible through an optimization oracle. We combine techniques from the work on linContextual, BwK, and OSPP in a nontrivial manner while also tackling new difficulties that are not present in any of these special cases.

An efficient algorithm for contextual bandits with knapsacks, and an extension to concave objectives

We consider a contextual version of multi-armed bandit problem with global knapsack constraints. In each round, the outcome of pulling an arm is a scalar reward and a resource consumption vector, both dependent on the context, and the global knapsack constraints require the total consumption for each resource to be below some pre-fixed budget. The learning agent competes with an arbitrary set of context-dependent policies. This problem was introduced by Badanidiyuru et al. (2014), who gave a computationally inefficient algorithm with near-optimal regret bounds for it. We give a computationally efficient algorithm for this problem with slightly better regret bounds, by generalizing the approach of Agarwal et al. (2014) for the non-constrained version of the problem. The computational time of our algorithm scales logarithmically in the size of the policy space. This answers the main open question of Badanidiyuru et al. (2014). We also extend our results to a variant where there are no knapsack constraints but the objective is an arbitrary Lipschitz concave function of the sum of outcome vectors.

Fast Algorithms for Online Stochastic Convex Programming

We introduce the online stochastic Convex Programming (CP) problem, a very general version of stochastic online problems which allows arbitrary concave objectives and convex feasibility constraints. Many well-studied problems like online stochastic packing and covering, online stochastic matching with concave returns, etc. form a special case of online stochastic CP. We present fast algorithms for these problems, which achieve near-optimal regret guarantees for both the i.i.d. and the random permutation models of stochastic inputs. When applied to the special case online packing, our ideas yield a simpler and faster primal-dual algorithm for this well studied problem, which achieves the optimal competitive ratio. Our techniques make explicit the connection of primal-dual paradigm and online learning to online stochastic CP.

Bandits with concave rewards and convex knapsacks

In this paper, we consider a very general model for exploration-exploitation tradeoff which allows arbitrary concave rewards and convex constraints on the decisions across time, in addition to the customary limitation on the time horizon. This model subsumes the classic multi-armed bandit (MAB) model, and the Bandits with Knapsacks (BwK) model of Badanidiyuru et al.[2013]. We also consider an extension of this model to allow linear contexts, similar to the linear contextual extension of the MAB model. We demonstrate that a natural and simple extension of the UCB family of algorithms for MAB provides a polynomial time algorithm that has near-optimal regret guarantees for this substantially more general model, and matches the bounds provided by Badanidiyuru et al.[2013] for the special case of BwK, which is quite surprising. We also provide computationally more efficient algorithms by establishing interesting connections between this problem and other well studied problems/algorithms such as the Blackwell approachability problem, online convex optimization, and the Frank-Wolfe technique for convex optimization. We give examples of several concrete applications, where this more general model of bandits allows for richer and/or more efficient formulations of the problem.

Further Optimal Regret Bounds for Thompson Sampling

Thompson Sampling is one of the oldest heuristics for multi-armed bandit problems. It is a randomized algorithm based on Bayesian ideas, and has recently generated significant interest after several studies demonstrated it to have better empirical performance compared to the state of the art methods. In this paper, we provide a novel regret analysis for Thompson Sampling that simultaneously proves both the optimal problem-dependent bound of $(1+epsilon)sum_i frac{ln T}{Delta_i}+O(frac{N}{epsilon^2})$ and the first near-optimal problem-independent bound of $O(sqrt{NTln T})$ on the expected regret of this algorithm. Our near-optimal problem-independent bound solves a COLT 2012 open problem of Chapelle and Li. The optimal problem-dependent regret bound for this problem was first proven recently by Kaufmann et al. [ALT 2012]. Our novel martingale-based analysis techniques are conceptually simple, easily extend to distributions other than the Beta distribution, and also extend to the more general contextual bandits setting [Manuscript, Agrawal and Goyal, 2012].

Thompson Sampling for Contextual Bandits with Linear Payoffs

Thompson Sampling is one of the oldest heuristics for multi-armed bandit problems. It is a randomized algorithm based on Bayesian ideas, and has recently generated significant interest after several studies demonstrated it to have better empirical performance compared to the state-of-the-art methods. However, many questions regarding its theoretical performance remained open. In this paper, we design and analyze a generalization of Thompson Sampling algorithm for the stochastic contextual multi-armed bandit problem with linear payoff functions, when the contexts are provided by an adaptive adversary. This is among the most important and widely studi