Dynamic Precursors of Flares in Active Region NOAA 10486

Four different methods are applied here to study the precursors of flare activity in the Active Region NOAA 10486. Two approaches track the temporal behaviour of suitably chosen features (one, the weighted horizontal gradient WGM, is generalised form the horizontal gradient of the magnetic field, GM; another is the sum of the horizontal gradient of the magnetic field, GS, for all sunspot pairs). WGM is a photospheric indicator that is a proxy measure of magnetic non-potentiality of a specific area of the active region, i.e. it captures the temporal variation of the weighted horizontal gradient of magnetic flux summed up for the region where opposite magnetic polarities are highly mixed. The third one, referred to as the separateness parameter, S(lf), considers the overall morphology. Further, GS and S(lf) are photospheric newly defined quick-look indicators of the polarity mix of the entire active region. The fourth method is tracking the temporal variation of small x-ray flares, their times of succession and their energies observed by the Reuven Ramaty High Energy Solar Spectroscopic Imager instrument. All approaches yield specific pre-cursory signatures for the imminence of flares.

Study of sunspot group morphological variations leading to flaring events

It is widely assumed that the most probable sites of flare occurrences are the locations of high horizontal magnetic field gradients in the active regions. Instead of magnetograms the present work checks this assumption by using sunspot data, the targeted phenomenon is the pre-flare behaviour of the strong horizontal gradients of the magnetic field at the location of the flare. The empirical basis of the work is the SDD (SOHO/MDI-Debrecen sunspot Data) sunspot catalogue. Case studies of two active regions and five X-flares have been carried out to find possible candidates for pre-flare signatures. It has been found that the following properties of the temporal variations of horizontal magnetic field gradient are promising for flare forecast: the speed of its growth, its maximal value, its decrease after the maximum until the flare and the rate of its fluctuation.