We examine possible sources of a substantial increase in tree ring 14C measurements for the years AD 774-775. Contrary to claims regarding a coronal mass ejection (CME), the required CME energy is not several orders of magnitude greater than known so
lar events. We consider solar proton events (SPEs) with three different fluences and two different spectra. The data may be explained by an event with fluence about one order of magnitude beyond the October 1989 SPE. Two hard spectrum cases considered here result in moderate ozone depletion, so no mass extinction is implied, though we do predict increases in erythema and damage to plants from enhanced solar UV. We are able to rule out an event with a very soft spectrum that causes severe ozone depletion and subsequent biological impacts. Nitrate enhancements are consistent with their apparent absence in ice core data. The modern technological implications of such an event may be extreme, and considering recent confirmation of superflares on solar-type stars, this issue merits attention.
The terrestrial effects of major solar events such as the Carrington white-light flare and subsequent geomagnetic storm of August-September 1859 are of considerable interest, especially in light of recent predictions that such extreme events will be
more likely over the coming decades. Here we present results of modeling the atmospheric effects, especially production of odd nitrogen compounds and subsequent depletion of ozone, by solar protons associated with the Carrington event. This study combines approaches from two previous studies of the atmospheric effect of this event. We investigate changes in NOy compounds as well as depletion of O3 using a two-dimensional atmospheric chemistry and dynamics model. Atmospheric ionization is computed using a range-energy relation with four different proxy proton spectra associated with more recent well-known solar proton events. We find that changes in atmospheric constituents are in reasonable agreement with previous studies, but effects of the four proxy spectra used vary more widely than found by one of those studies. In particular, we find greater impact for harder proton spectra, given a constant total fluence. We report computed nitrate deposition values and compare to measured values in ice cores. Finally, we briefly investigate the impact of the modeled ozone depletion on surface-level solar ultraviolet radiation.
