A review of solar cycle prediction methods and their performance is given, including forecasts for cycle 24 and focusing on aspects of the solar cycle prediction problem that have a bearing on dynamo theory. The scope of the review is further restric
ted to the issue of predicting the amplitude (and optionally the epoch) of an upcoming solar maximum no later than right after the start of the given cycle. Prediction methods form three main groups. Precursor methods rely on the value of some measure of solar activity or magnetism at a specified time to predict the amplitude of the following solar maximum. Their implicit assumption is that each numbered solar cycle is a consistent unit in itself, while solar activity seems to consist of a series of much less tightly intercorrelated individual cycles. Extrapolation methods, in contrast, are based on the premise that the physical process giving rise to the sunspot number record is statistically homogeneous, i.e., the mathematical regularities underlying its variations are the same at any point of time, and therefore it lends itself to analysis and forecasting by time series methods. Finally, instead of an analysis of observational data alone, model based predictions use physically (more or less) consistent dynamo models in their attempts to predict solar activity. In their overall performance precursor methods have clearly been superior to extrapolation methods. Nevertheless, some extrapolation methods may still be worth further study. Model based forecasts have not yet have had a chance to prove their skills. One method that has yielded predictions consistently in the right range during the past few solar cycles is that of K. Schatten et al., whose approach is mainly based on the polar field precursor. The incipient cycle 24 will probably mark the end of the Modern Maximum, with the Sun switching to a state of less strong activity.
Parkers analytic Cartesian interface dynamo is generalized to the case of a shear layer of finite thickness and low resistivity (tachocline), bounded by a perfect conductor (radiative zone) on the one side, and by a highly diffusive medium (convectiv
e zone) supporting an $alpha$-effect on the other side. In the limit of high diffusivity contrast between the shear layer and the diffusive medium, thought to be relevant for the Sun, a pair of exact dispersion relations for the growth rate and frequency of dynamo modes is analytically derived. Graphic solution of the dispersion relations displays a somewhat unexpected, non-monotonic behaviour, the mathematical origin of which is elucidated. The dependence of the results on the parameter values (dynamo number and shear layer thickness) is investigated. The implications of this result for the solar dynamo problem are discussed.
A didactic introduction to current thinking on some aspects of the solar dynamo is given for geophysicists and planetary scientists.
The chemistry of molecular clouds has been studied for decades, with an increasingly general and sophisticated treatment of the reactions involved. Yet the treatment of turbulent diffusion has remained extremely sketchy, assuming simple Fickian diffu
sion with a scalar diffusivity D. However, turbulent flows similar to those in the interstellar medium are known to give rise to anomalous diffusion phenomena, more specifically superdiffusion (increase of the diffusivity with the spatial scales involved). This paper considers to what extent and in what sense superdiffusion modifies molecular abundances in interstellar clouds. For this first exploration of the subject we employ a very rough treatment of the chemistry and the effect of non-unifom cloud density on the diffusion equation is also treated in a simplified way. The results nevertheless clearly demonstrate that the effect of superdiffusion is quite significant, abundance values at a given radius being modified by order of unity factors. The sense and character of this influence is highly nontrivial.
