Online social media have greatly affected the way in which we communicate with each other. However, little is known about what are the fundamental mechanisms driving dynamical information flow in online social systems. Here, we introduce a generative
model for online sharing behavior that is analytically tractable and which can reproduce several characteristics of empirical micro-blogging data on hashtag usage, such as (time-dependent) heavy-tailed distributions of meme popularity. The presented framework constitutes a null model for social spreading phenomena which, in contrast to purely empirical studies or simulation-based models, clearly distinguishes the roles of two distinct factors affecting meme popularity: the memory time of users and the connectivity structure of the social network.
Human activities increasingly take place in online environments, providing novel opportunities for relating individual behaviours to population-level outcomes. In this paper, we introduce a simple generative model for the collective behaviour of mill
ions of social networking site users who are deciding between different software applications. Our model incorporates two distinct components: one is associated with recent decisions of users, and the other reflects the cumulative popularity of each application. Importantly, although various combinations of the two mechanisms yield long-time behaviour that is consistent with data, the only models that reproduce the observed temporal dynamics are those that strongly emphasize the recent popularity of applications over their cumulative popularity. This demonstrates---even when using purely observational data without experimental design---that temporal data-driven modelling can effectively distinguish between competing microscopic mechanisms, allowing us to uncover new aspects of collective online behaviour.
Heavy-tailed distributions of meme popularity occur naturally in a model of meme diffusion on social networks. Competition between multiple memes for the limited resource of user attention is identified as the mechanism that poises the system at crit
icality. The popularity growth of each meme is described by a critical branching process, and asymptotic analysis predicts power-law distributions of popularity with very heavy tails (exponent $alpha<2$, unlike preferential-attachment models), similar to those seen in empirical data.
A wide class of binary-state dynamics on networks---including, for example, the voter model, the Bass diffusion model, and threshold models---can be described in terms of transition rates (spin-flip probabilities) that depend on the number of nearest
neighbors in each of the two possible states. High-accuracy approximations for the emergent dynamics of such models on uncorrelated, infinite networks are given by recently-developed compartmental models or approximate master equations (AME). Pair approximations (PA) and mean-field theories can be systematically derived from the AME. We show that PA and AME solutions can coincide under certain circumstances, and numerical simulations confirm that PA is highly accurate in these cases. For monotone dynamics (where transitions out of one nodal state are impossible, e.g., SI disease-spread or Bass diffusion), PA and AME give identical results for the fraction of nodes in the infected (active) state for all time, provided the rate of infection depends linearly on the number of infected neighbors. In the more general non-monotone case, we derive a condition---that proves equivalent to a detailed balance condition on the dynamics---for PA and AME solutions to coincide in the limit $t to infty$. This permits bifurcation analysis, yielding explicit expressions for the critical (ferromagnetic/paramagnetic transition) point of such dynamics, closely analogous to the critical temperature of the Ising spin model. Finally, the AME for threshold models of propagation is shown to reduce to just two differential equations, and to give excellent agreement with numerical simulations. As part of this work, Octave/Matlab code for implementing and solving the differential equation systems is made available for download.
The spread of ideas across a social network can be studied using complex contagion models, in which agents are activated by contact with multiple activated neighbors. The investigation of complex contagions can provide crucial insights into social in
fluence and behavior-adoption cascades on networks. In this paper, we introduce a model of a multi-stage complex contagion on networks. Agents at different stages --- which could, for example, represent differing levels of support for a social movement or differing levels of commitment to a certain product or idea --- exert different amounts of influence on their neighbors. We demonstrate that the presence of even one additional stage introduces novel dynamical behavior, including interplay between multiple cascades, that cannot occur in single-stage contagion models. We find that cascades --- and hence collective action --- can be driven not only by high-stage influencers but also by low-stage influencers.
Mean-field analysis is an important tool for understanding dynamics on complex networks. However, surprisingly little attention has been paid to the question of whether mean-field predictions are accurate, and this is particularly true for real-world
networks with clustering and modular structure. In this paper, we compare mean-field predictions to numerical simulation results for dynamical processes running on 21 real-world networks and demonstrate that the accuracy of the theory depends not only on the mean degree of the networks but also on the mean first-neighbor degree. We show that mean-field theory can give (unexpectedly) accurate results for certain dynamics on disassortative real-world networks even when the mean degree is as low as 4.
