The International System develops according to a clear logic: By means of systemic wars organisational innovations are periodically introduced, contributing to a process of social expansion and integration, and to wealth creation. A finite-time singu
larity accompanied by four accelerating log-periodic cycles can be identified during the time frame 1495-1945.
A finite-time singularity accompanied by log-periodic oscillations shaped the war dynamics and development of the International System during the period 1495 - 1945. The identification of this singularity provides us with a perspective to penetrate a
nd decode the dynamics of the International System. Various regularities in the dynamics of the International System can be identified. These regularities are remarkably consistent, and can be attributed to the connectivity and the growth of connectivity of the International System.
Various self-organized characteristics of the international system can be identified with the help of a complexity science perspective. The perspective discussed in this article is based on various complexity science concepts and theories, and concep
ts related to ecology and ecosystems. It can be argued that the Great Power war dynamics of the international system in Europe during the period 1480-1945, showed self-organized critical (SOC) characteristics, resulting in a punctuated equilibrium dynamic. It seems that the SOC-characteristics of the international system and the punctuated equilibrium dynamic were - in combination with chaotic war dynamics - functional in a process of social expansion in Europe. According to a model presented in this article, population growth was a component of the driving force of the international system during this time frame. The findings of this exploratory research project contradict with generally held opinions in International Relations theory.
The International System is a self-organized system that shows emergent behavior. During the timeframe (1495-1945) covered in this study, a finite-time singularity and four accompanying accelerating log-periodic cycles shaped the dynamics of the Inte
rnational System. Each cycle began and ended with a systemic war. During their life span, these cycles show remarkable regularities in their dynamics. The accelerated growth of the connectivity of the regulatory network of the International System, in combination with its anarchistic structure, produce and shape the war dynamics of the system. The accelerated growth of the connectivity of the International System is fed by population growth and the need for social systems to fulfill basic requirements. The finite-time singularity and accompanying log-periodic oscillations were instrumental in the periodic reorganization of the regulatory network of the International System and contributed to a long-term process of social expansion and integration in Europe. The singularity dynamic produced a series of organizational innovations. At the critical time of the singularity (1939), the connectivity of the system reached a critical threshold and resulted in a critical transition that led to a fundamental reorganization of the International System. Europe transformed from an anarchistic system to a cooperative security community. During the life span of the cycles, the war dynamics showed chaotic characteristics. These findings have implications for the social sciences and historical research.
The risk of systemic war seems dependant on the level of criticality and sensitivity of the International System, and the systems conditions. The level of criticality and sensitivity is dependant on the developmental stage of the International System
. Initially, following a systemic war, the increase of the level of criticality and sensitivity go hand in hand. However, at a certain stage the sensitivity of the International System for larger sized wars decreases; as a consequence of a network effect, we argue. This network effect results in increased local stability of the System. During this phase the criticality of the International System steadily increases, resulting in a release deficit. This release deficit facilitates a necessary build up of energy to push the International System, by means of systemic war, into a new stability domain. Systemic war is functional in the periodic rebalancing of an anarchistic international system.
The process of social expansion in Europe can be better understood with various concepts related to complexity science. Findings of exploratory research show a typical process of social expansion in Europe within the period 1495-1945, in which wars h
ave been instrumental. Furthermore, this research enables the identification of vulnerabilities, and conditions for success in a process of social expansion.
