اشترك بالحزمة الذهبية واحصل على وصول غير محدود شمرا أكاديميا
تسجيل مستخدم جديدSystemic Risk in the International System
110
0
0.0
(
0
)
تأليف
Ingo Piepers
اسأل ChatGPT حول البحث
ﻻ يوجد ملخص باللغة العربية
The risk of systemic war seems dependant on the level of criticality and sensitivity of the International System, and the systems conditions. The level of criticality and sensitivity is dependant on the developmental stage of the International System. Initially, following a systemic war, the increase of the level of criticality and sensitivity go hand in hand. However, at a certain stage the sensitivity of the International System for larger sized wars decreases; as a consequence of a network effect, we argue. This network effect results in increased local stability of the System. During this phase the criticality of the International System steadily increases, resulting in a release deficit. This release deficit facilitates a necessary build up of energy to push the International System, by means of systemic war, into a new stability domain. Systemic war is functional in the periodic rebalancing of an anarchistic international system.
قيم البحث
اقرأ أيضاً
The assumption that complex systems function optimally at the edge of chaos seems applicable to the international system as well. In this paper I argue that the normal chaotic war dynamic of the European international system (1495-1945) was temporari
ly (1657-1763) interrupted by a more simplified dynamic, resulting in more intense Great Power wars and in a delay of the reorganization of the international system in the 18th century.
Various self-organized characteristics of the international system can be identified with the help of a complexity science perspective. The perspective discussed in this article is based on various complexity science concepts and theories, and concep
ts related to ecology and ecosystems. It can be argued that the Great Power war dynamics of the international system in Europe during the period 1480-1945, showed self-organized critical (SOC) characteristics, resulting in a punctuated equilibrium dynamic. It seems that the SOC-characteristics of the international system and the punctuated equilibrium dynamic were - in combination with chaotic war dynamics - functional in a process of social expansion in Europe. According to a model presented in this article, population growth was a component of the driving force of the international system during this time frame. The findings of this exploratory research project contradict with generally held opinions in International Relations theory.
From the perspective developed in this paper, it can be argued that exponential population growth resulted in the exponential decrease of the life-span of consecutive stable periods during the life-span of the European international system (1480-1945
). However, it becomes evident as well that population growth as such is not a sufficient condition to generate a punctuated equilibrium dynamic in the war dynamics of the international system: other conditions and factors - and their interplay - contribute to this typical dynamic as well. From 1945 until the collapse of the Soviet Union (1991), the conditions of international system differed fundamentally from the conditions of the European international system during the period 1480-1945. It can be argued, that sooner or later a punctuated equilibrium war dynamic will resume.
Financial markets are exposed to systemic risk, the risk that a substantial fraction of the system ceases to function and collapses. Systemic risk can propagate through different mechanisms and channels of contagion. One important form of financial c
ontagion arises from indirect interconnections between financial institutions mediated by financial markets. This indirect interconnection occurs when financial institutions invest in common assets and is referred to as overlapping portfolios. In this work we quantify systemic risk from indirect interconnections between financial institutions. Having complete information of security holdings of major Mexican financial intermediaries and the ability to uniquely identify securities in their portfolios, allows us to represent the Mexican financial system as a bipartite network of securities and financial institutions. This makes it possible to quantify systemic risk arising from overlapping portfolios. We show that focusing only on direct exposures underestimates total systemic risk levels by up to 50%. By representing the financial system as a multi-layer network of direct exposures (default contagion) and indirect exposures (overlapping portfolios) we estimate the mutual influence of different channels of contagion. The method presented here is the first objective data-driven quantification of systemic risk on national scales that includes overlapping portfolios.
In this paper, we introduce the rich classes of conditional distortion (CoD) risk measures and distortion risk contribution ($Delta$CoD) measures as measures of systemic risk and analyze their properties and representations. The classes include the w
ell-known conditional Value-at-Risk, conditional Expected Shortfall, and risk contribution measures in terms of the VaR and ES as special cases. Sufficient conditions are presented for two random vectors to be ordered by the proposed CoD-risk measures and distortion risk contribution measures. These conditions are expressed using the conventional stochastic dominance, increasing convex/concave, dispersive, and excess wealth orders of the marginals and canonical positive/negative stochastic dependence notions. Numerical examples are provided to illustrate our theoretical findings. This paper is the second in a triplet of papers on systemic risk by the same authors. In cite{DLZorder2018a}, we introduce and analyze some new stochastic orders related to systemic risk. In a third (forthcoming) paper, we attribute systemic risk to the different participants in a given risky environment.
سجل دخول لتتمكن من نشر تعليقات
التعليقات
جاري جلب التعليقات
سجل دخول لتتمكن من متابعة معايير البحث التي قمت باختيارها
