Anomalies drive scientific discovery -- they are associated with the cutting edge of the research frontier, and thus typically exploit data in the low signal-to-noise regime. In astronomy, the prevalence of systematics --- both known unknowns and unk
nown unknowns --- combined with increasingly large datasets, the widespread use of ad hoc estimators for anomaly detection, and the look-elsewhere effect, can lead to spurious false detections. In this informal note, I argue that anomaly detection leading to discoveries of new physics requires a combination of physical understanding, careful experimental design to avoid confirmation bias, and self-consistent statistical methods. These points are illustrated with several concrete examples from cosmology.
We derive robust constraints on primordial non-Gaussianity (PNG) using the clustering of 800,000 photometric quasars from the Sloan Digital Sky Survey in the redshift range $0.5<z<3.5$. These measurements rely on the novel technique of {it extended m
ode projection} to control the impact of spatially-varying systematics in a robust fashion, making use of blind analysis techniques. This allows the accurate measurement of quasar halo bias at the largest scales, while discarding as little as possible of the data. The standard local-type PNG parameters $f_mathrm{NL}$ and $g_mathrm{NL}$ both imprint a $k^{-2}$ scale-dependent effect in the bias. Constraining these individually, we obtain $-49<f_mathrm{NL}<31$ and $-2.7times10^5<g_mathrm{NL}<1.9times10^5$, while their joint constraints lead to $-105<f_mathrm{NL}<72$ and $-4.0times10^5<g_mathrm{NL}<4.9times10^5$ (all at 95% CL) . Introducing a running parameter $n_{f_mathrm{NL}}$ to constrain $b(k) propto k^{-2+n_{f_mathrm{NL}}}$ and a generalised PNG amplitude $tilde{f}_mathrm{NL}$, we obtain $-45.5 exp({3.7, n_{f_mathrm{NL}}}) < tilde{f}_mathrm{NL} < 34.4 exp({3.3, n_{f_mathrm{NL}}})$ at 95% CL. These results incorporate uncertainties in the cosmological parameters, redshift distributions, shot noise, and the bias prescription used to relate the quasar clustering to the underlying dark matter. These are the strongest constraints obtained to date on PNG using a single population of large-scale structure tracers, and are already at the level of pre-{it Planck} constraints from the cosmic microwave background. A conservative forecast for a {it Large Synoptic Survey Telescope}-like survey incorporating mode projection yields $sigma(f_mathrm{NL}) sim 5$ -- competitive with the {it Planck} result -- highlighting the power of upcoming large scale structure surveys to probe the initial conditions of the universe.
We present optimal measurements of the angular power spectrum of the XDQSOz catalogue of photometric quasars from the Sloan Digital Sky Survey. These measurements rely on a quadratic maximum likelihood estimator that simultaneously measures the auto-
and cross-power spectra of four redshift samples, and provides minimum-variance, unbiased estimates even at the largest angular scales. Since photometric quasars are known to be strongly affected by systematics such as spatially-varying depth and stellar contamination, we introduce a new framework of extended mode projection to robustly mitigate the impact of systematics on the power spectrum measurements. This technique involves constructing template maps of potential systematics, decorrelating them on the sky, and projecting out modes which are significantly correlated with the data. Our method is able to simultaneously process several thousands of nonlinearly-correlated systematics, and mode projection is performed in a blind fashion. Using our final power spectrum measurements, we find a good agreement with theoretical predictions, and no evidence for further contamination by systematics. Extended mode projection not only obviates the need for aggressive sky and quality cuts, but also provides control over the level of systematics in the measurements, enabling the search for small signals of new physics while avoiding confirmation bias.
It has been suggested that recent cosmological and flavor-oscillation data favor the existence of additional neutrino species beyond the three predicted by the Standard Model of particle physics. We apply Bayesian model selection to determine whether
there is indeed any evidence from current cosmological datasets for the standard cosmological model to be extended to include additional neutrino flavors. The datasets employed include cosmic microwave background temperature, polarization and lensing power spectra, and measurements of the baryon acoustic oscillation scale and the Hubble constant. We also consider other extensions to the standard neutrino model, such as massive neutrinos, and possible degeneracies with other cosmological parameters. The Bayesian evidence indicates that current cosmological data do not require any non-standard neutrino properties.
It is possible to reliably identify white dwarfs (WDs) without recourse to spectra, instead using photometric and astrometric measurements to distinguish them from Main Sequence stars and quasars. WDs colours can also be used to infer their intrinsic
properties (effective temperature, surface gravity, etc.), but the results obtained must be interpreted with care. The difficulties stem from the existence of a solid angle degeneracy, as revealed by a full exploration of the likelihood, although this can be masked if a simple best-fit approach is used. Conversely, this degeneracy can be broken if a Bayesian approach is adopted, as it is then possible to utilise the prior information on the surface gravities of WDs implied by spectroscopic fitting. The benefits of such an approach are particularly strong when applied to outliers, such as the candidate halo and ultra-cool WDs identified by Vidrih et al. (2007). A reanalysis of these samples confirms their results for the latter sample but suggests that that most of the halo candidates are thick disk WDs in the tails of the photometric noise distribution.
The angular power spectrum of the cosmic microwave background temperature anisotropy observed by WMAP has an anomalous dip at l~20 and bump at l~40. One explanation for this structure is the presence of features in the primordial curvature power spec
trum, possibly caused by a step in the inflationary potential. The detection of these features is only marginally significant from temperature data alone. However, the inflationary feature hypothesis predicts a specific shape for the E-mode polarization power spectrum with a structure similar to that observed in temperature at l~20-40. Measurement of the CMB polarization on few-degree scales can therefore be used as a consistency check of the hypothesis. The Planck satellite has the statistical sensitivity to confirm or rule out the model that best fits the temperature features with 3 sigma significance, assuming all other parameters are known. With a cosmic variance limited experiment, this significance improves to 8 sigma. For tests of inflationary models that can explain both the dip and bump in temperature, the primary source of uncertainty is confusion with polarization features created by a complex reionization history, which at most reduces the significance to 2.5 sigma for Planck and 5-6 sigma for an ideal experiment. Smoothing of the polarization spectrum by a large tensor component only slightly reduces the ability of polarization to test for inflationary features, as does requiring that polarization is consistent with the observed temperature spectrum given the expected low level of TE correlation on few-degree scales. A future polarization satellite would enable a decisive test of the feature hypothesis and provide complementary information about the shape of a possible step in the inflationary potential. (Abridged.)
A characteristic of D-brane inflation is that fluctuations in the inflaton field can propagate at a speed significantly less than the speed of light. This yields observable effects that are distinct from those of single-field slow roll inflation, suc
h as a modification of the inflationary consistency relation and a potentially large level of non-Gaussianities. We present a numerical algorithm that extends the inflationary flow formalism to models with general speed of sound. For an ensemble of D-brane inflation models parameterized by the Hubble parameter and the speed of sound as polynomial functions of the inflaton field, we give qualitative predictions for the key inflationary observables. We discuss various consistency relations for D-brane inflation, and compare the qualitative shapes of the warp factors we derive from the numerical models with analytical warp factors considered in the literature. Finally, we derive and apply a generalized microphysical bound on the inflaton field variation during brane inflation. While a large number of models are consistent with current cosmological constraints, almost all of these models violate the compactification constraint on the field range in four-dimensional Planck units. If the field range bound is to hold, then models with a detectable level of non-Gaussianity predict a blue scalar spectral index, and a tensor component that is far below the detection limit of any future experiment.
The latest cosmological data seem to indicate a significant deviation from scale invariance of the primordial power spectrum when parameterized either by a power law or by a spectral index with non-zero running. This deviation, by itself, serves as a
powerful tool to discriminate among theories for the origin of cosmological structures such as inflationary models. Here, we use a minimally-parametric smoothing spline technique to reconstruct the shape of the primordial power spectrum. This technique is well-suited to search for smooth features in the primordial power spectrum such as deviations from scale invariance or a running spectral index, although it would recover sharp features of high statistical significance. We use the WMAP 3 year results in combination with data from a suite of higher resolution CMB experiments (including the latest ACBAR 2008 release), as well as large-scale structure data from SDSS and 2dFGRS. We employ cross-validation to assess, using the data themselves, the optimal amount of smoothness in the primordial power spectrum consistent with the data. This minimally-parametric reconstruction supports the evidence for a power law primordial power spectrum with a red tilt, but not for deviations from a power law power spectrum. Smooth variations in the primordial power spectrum are not significantly degenerate with the other cosmological parameters.
We compare the Infrared Dirac-Born-Infeld (IR DBI) brane inflation model to observations using a Bayesian analysis. The current data cannot distinguish it from the LambdaCDM model, but is able to give interesting constraints on various microscopic pa
rameters including the mass of the brane moduli potential, the fundamental string scale, the charge or warp factor of throats, and the number of the mobile branes. We quantify some distinctive testable predictions with stringy signatures, such as the large non-Gaussianity, and the large, but regional, running of the spectral index. These results illustrate how we may be able to probe aspects of string theory using cosmological observations.
(Abridged) We study dissipative inflation in the regime where the dissipative term takes a specific form, Gamma=Gamma(phi), analyzing two models in the weak and strong dissipative regimes with a SUSY breaking potential. After developing intuition abo
ut the predictions from these models through analytic approximations, we compute the predicted cosmological observables through full numerical evolution of the equations of motion, relating the mass scale and scale of dissipation to the characteristic amplitude and shape of the primordial power spectrum. We then use Markov Chain Monte Carlo techniques to constrain a subset of the models with cosmological data from the cosmic microwave background (WMAP three-year data) and large scale structure (SDSS Luminous Red Galaxy power spectrum). We find that the posterior distributions of the dissipative parameters are highly non-Gaussian and their allowed ranges agree well with the expectations obtained using analytic approximations. In the weak regime, only the mass scale is tightly constrained; conversely, in the strong regime, only the dissipative coefficient is tightly constrained. A lower limit is seen on the inflation scale: a sub-Planckian inflaton is disfavoured by the data. In both weak and strong regimes, we reconstruct the limits on the primordial power spectrum and show that these models prefer a {it red} spectrum, with no significant running of the index. We calculate the reheat temperature and show that the gravitino problem can be overcome with large dissipation, which in turn leads to large levels of non-Gaussianity: if dissipative inflation is to evade the gravitino problem, the predicted level of non-Gaussianity might be seen by the Planck satellite.
