How rare are diffusive rare events?

We study the time until first occurrence, the first-passage time, of rare density fluctuations in diffusive systems. We approach the problem using a model consisting of many independent random walkers on a lattice. The existence of spatial correlations makes this problem analytically intractable. However, for a mean-field approximation in which the walkers can jump anywhere in the system, we obtain a simple asymptotic form for the mean first-passage time to have a given number k of particles at a distinguished site. We show numerically, and argue heuristically, that for large enough k, the mean-field results give a good approximation for first-passage times for systems with nearest-neighbour dynamics, especially for two and higher spatial dimensions. Finally, we show how the results change when density fluctuations anywhere in the system, rather than at a specific distinguished site, are considered.

Competitive nucleation and the Ostwald rule in a generalized Potts model with multiple metastable phases

We introduce a simple nearest-neighbor spin model with multiple metastable phases, the number and decay pathways of which are explicitly controlled by the parameters of the system. With this model we can construct, for example, a system which evolves through an arbitrarily long succession of metastable phases. We also construct systems in which different phases may nucleate competitively from a single initial phase. For such a system, we present a general method to extract from numerical simulations the individual nucleation rates of the nucleating phases. The results show that the Ostwald rule, which predicts which phase will nucleate, must be modified probabilistically when the new phases are almost equally stable. Finally, we show that the nucleation rate of a phase depends, among other things, on the number of other phases accessible from it.