The Daya Bay, RENO, and Double Chooz experiments have discovered a large non-zero value for $theta_{13}$. We present a global analysis that includes these three experiments, Chooz, the Super-K atmospheric data, and the $ u_mu rightarrow u_e$ T2K and
MINOS experiments that are sensitive to the hierarchy and the sign of $theta_{13}$. We report preliminary results in which we fix the mixing parameters other than $theta_{13}$ to those from a recent global analysis. Given there is no evidence for a non-zero CP violation, we assume $delta=0$. T2K and MINOS lie in a region of $L/E$ where there is a hierarchy degeneracy in the limit of $theta_{13}rightarrow 0$ and no matter interaction. For non-zero $theta_{13}$, the symmetry is partially broken, but a degeneracy under the simultaneous exchange of both hierarchy and the sign of $theta_{13}$ remains. Matter effects break this symmetry such that the positions of the peaks in the oscillation probabilities maintain the two-fold symmetry, while the magnitude of the oscillations is sensitive to the hierarchy. This renders T2K and NO$ u$A, with different baselines and different matter effects, better able in combination to distinguish the hierarchy and the sign of $theta_{13}$. The large value of $theta_{13}$ yields effects from atmospheric data that distinguish hierarchies. We find for normal hierarchy, positive $theta_{13}$, $sin^22theta_{13}=0.090pm0.020$ and is 0.2% probable it is the correct combination; for normal hierarchy, negative $theta_{13}$, $sin^22theta_{13}=0.108pm0.023$ and is 2.2% probable; for inverse hierarchy, positive $theta_{13}$, $sin^22theta_{13}=0.110pm0.022$ and is 7.1% probable; for inverse hierarchy, negative $theta_{13}$, $sin^22theta_{13}=0.113pm0.022$ and is 90.5% probable, results that are inconsistent with two similar analyses.
One goal of contemporary particle physics is to determine the mixing angles and mass-squared differences that constitute the phenomenological constants that describe neutrino oscillations. Of great interest are not only the best fit values of these c
onstants but also their errors. Some of the neutrino oscillation data is statistically poor and cannot be treated by normal (Gaussian) statistics. To extract confidence intervals when the statistics are not normal, one should not utilize the value for chisquare versus confidence level taken from normal statistics. Instead, we propose that one should use the normalized likelihood function as a probability distribution; the relationship between the correct chisquare and a given confidence level can be computed by integrating over the likelihood function. This allows for a definition of confidence level independent of the functional form of the !2 function; it is particularly useful for cases in which the minimum of the !2 function is near a boundary. We present two pedagogic examples and find that the proposed method yields confidence intervals that can differ significantly from those obtained by using the value of chisquare from normal statistics. For example, we find that for the first data release of the T2K experiment the probability that chisquare is not zero, as defined by the maximum confidence level at which the value of zero is not allowed, is 92%. Using the value of chisquare at zero and assigning a confidence level from normal statistics, a common practice, gives the over estimation of 99.5%.
