The customary perspective to reason about epidemic mitigation in temporal networks hinges on the identification of nodes with specific features or network roles. The ensuing individual-based control strategies, however, are difficult to carry out in
practice and ignore important correlations between topological and temporal patterns. Here we adopt a mesoscopic perspective and present a principled framework to identify collective features at multiple scales and rank their importance for epidemic spread. We use tensor decomposition techniques to build an additive representation of a temporal network in terms of mesostructures, such as cohesive clusters and temporally-localized mixing patterns. This representation allows to determine the impact of individual mesostructures on epidemic spread and to assess the effect of targeted interventions that remove chosen structures. We illustrate this approach using high-resolution social network data on face-to-face interactions in a school and show that our method affords the design of effective mesoscale interventions.
Empirical temporal networks display strong heterogeneities in their dynamics, which profoundly affect processes taking place on these networks, such as rumor and epidemic spreading. Despite the recent wealth of data on temporal networks, little work
has been devoted to the understanding of how such heterogeneities can emerge from microscopic mechanisms at the level of nodes and links. Here we show that long-term memory effects are present in the creation and disappearance of links in empirical networks. We thus consider a simple generative modeling framework for temporal networks able to incorporate these memory mechanisms. This allows us to study separately the role of each of these mechanisms in the emergence of heterogeneous network dynamics. In particular, we show analytically and numerically how heterogeneous distributions of contact durations, of inter-contact durations and of numbers of contacts per link emerge. We also study the individual effect of heterogeneities on dynamical processes, such as the paradigmatic Susceptible-Infected epidemic spreading model. Our results confirm in particular the crucial role of the distributions of inter-contact durations and of the numbers of contacts per link.
School environments are thought to play an important role in the community spread of airborne infections (e.g., influenza) because of the high mixing rates of school children. The closure of schools has therefore been proposed as efficient mitigation
strategy, with however high social and economic costs: alternative, less disruptive interventions are highly desirable. The recent availability of high-resolution contact networks in school environments provides an opportunity to design micro-interventions and compare the outcomes of alternative mitigation measures. We consider mitigation measures that involve the targeted closure of school classes or grades based on readily available information such as the number of symptomatic infectious children in a class. We focus on the case of a primary school for which we have high-resolution data on the close-range interactions of children and teachers. We simulate the spread of an influenza-like illness in this population by using an SEIR model with asymptomatics and compare the outcomes of different mitigation strategies. We find that targeted class closure affords strong mitigation effects: closing a class for a fixed period of time -equal to the sum of the average infectious and latent durations- whenever two infectious individuals are detected in that class decreases the attack rate by almost 70% and strongly decreases the probability of a severe outbreak. The closure of all classes of the same grade mitigates the spread almost as much as closing the whole school. Targeted class closure strategies based on readily available information on symptomatic subjects and on limited information on mixing patterns, such as the grade structure of the school, can be almost as effective as whole-school closure, at a much lower cost. This may inform public health policies for the management and mitigation of influenza-like outbreaks in the community.
The distribution engendered by successive splitting of one point vortex are considered. The process of splitting a vortex in three using a reverse three-point vortex collapse course is analysed in great details and shown to be dissipative. A simple p
rocess of successive splitting is then defined and the resulting vorticity distribution and vortex populations are analysed.
The enormous increase of popularity and use of the WWW has led in the recent years to important changes in the ways people communicate. An interesting example of this fact is provided by the now very popular social annotation systems, through which u
sers annotate resources (such as web pages or digital photographs) with text keywords dubbed tags. Understanding the rich emerging structures resulting from the uncoordinated actions of users calls for an interdisciplinary effort. In particular concepts borrowed from statistical physics, such as random walks, and the complex networks framework, can effectively contribute to the mathematical modeling of social annotation systems. Here we show that the process of social annotation can be seen as a collective but uncoordinated exploration of an underlying semantic space, pictured as a graph, through a series of random walks. This modeling framework reproduces several aspects, so far unexplained, of social annotation, among which the peculiar growth of the size of the vocabulary used by the community and its complex network structure that represents an externalization of semantic structures grounded in cognition and typically hard to access.
Complex networks have acquired a great popularity in recent years, since the graph representation of many natural, social and technological systems is often very helpful to characterize and model their phenomenology. Additionally, the mathematical to
ols of statistical physics have proven to be particularly suitable for studying and understanding complex networks. Nevertheless, an important obstacle to this theoretical approach is still represented by the difficulties to draw parallelisms between network science and more traditional aspects of statistical physics. In this paper, we explore the relation between complex networks and a well known topic of statistical physics: renormalization. A general method to analyze renormalization flows of complex networks is introduced. The method can be applied to study any suitable renormalization transformation. Finite-size scaling can be performed on computer-generated networks in order to classify them in universality classes. We also present applications of the method on real networks.
In this paper we present an experimental framework to gather data on face-to-face social interactions between individuals, with a high spatial and temporal resolution. We use active Radio Frequency Identification (RFID) devices that assess contacts w
ith one another by exchanging low-power radio packets. When individuals wear the beacons as a badge, a persistent radio contact between the RFID devices can be used as a proxy for a social interaction between individuals. We present the results of a pilot study recently performed during a conference, and a subsequent preliminary data analysis, that provides an assessment of our method and highlights its versatility and applicability in many areas concerned with human dynamics.
Many complex systems, including networks, are not static but can display strong fluctuations at various time scales. Characterizing the dynamics in complex networks is thus of the utmost importance in the understanding of these networks and of the dy
namical processes taking place on them. In this article, we study the example of the US airport network in the time period 1990-2000. We show that even if the statistical distributions of most indicators are stationary, an intense activity takes place at the local (`microscopic) level, with many disappearing/appearing connections (links) between airports. We find that connections have a very broad distribution of lifetimes, and we introduce a set of metrics to characterize the links dynamics. We observe in particular that the links which disappear have essentially the same properties as the ones which appear, and that links which connect airports with very different traffic are very volatile. Motivated by this empirical study, we propose a model of dynamical networks, inspired from previous studies on firm growth, which reproduces most of the empirical observations both for the stationary statistical distributions and for the dynamical properties.
Background: The global spread of the severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) epidemic has clearly shown the importance of considering the long-range transportation networks in the understanding of emerging diseases outbreaks. The introduction of ext
ensive transportation data sets is therefore an important step in order to develop epidemic models endowed with realism. Methods: We develop a general stochastic meta-population model that incorporates actual travel and census data among 3 100 urban areas in 220 countries. The model allows probabilistic predictions on the likelihood of country outbreaks and their magnitude. The level of predictability offered by the model can be quantitatively analyzed and related to the appearance of robust epidemic pathways that represent the most probable routes for the spread of the disease. Results: In order to assess the predictive power of the model, the case study of the global spread of SARS is considered. The disease parameter values and initial conditions used in the model are evaluated from empirical data for Hong Kong. The outbreak likelihood for specific countries is evaluated along with the emerging epidemic pathways. Simulation results are in agreement with the empirical data of the SARS worldwide epidemic. Conclusions: The presented computational approach shows that the integration of long-range mobility and demographic data provides epidemic models with a predictive power that can be consistently tested and theoretically motivated. This computational strategy can be therefore considered as a general tool in the analysis and forecast of the global spreading of emerging diseases and in the definition of containment policies aimed at reducing the effects of potentially catastrophic outbreaks.
We study metapopulation models for the spread of epidemics in which different subpopulations (cities) are connected by fluxes of individuals (travelers). This framework allows to describe the spread of a disease on a large scale and we focus here on
the computation of the arrival time of a disease as a function of the properties of the seed of the epidemics and of the characteristics of the network connecting the various subpopulations. Using analytical and numerical arguments, we introduce an easily computable quantity which approximates this average arrival time. We show on the example of a disease spread on the world-wide airport network that this quantity predicts with a good accuracy the order of arrival of the disease in the various subpopulations in each realization of epidemic scenario, and not only for an average over realizations. Finally, this quantity might be useful in the identification of the dominant paths of the disease spread.
