Occurrence rate of radio-loud and halo CMEs in solar cycle 25: Prediction using their correlation with sunspot numbers

The coronal mass ejections (CMEs) from the Sun are known for their space weather and geomagnetic consequences. Among all CMEs, so-called radio-loud (RL) and halo CMEs are considered the most energetic in the sense that they are usually faster and wider than the general population of CMEs. Hence the study of RL and halo CMEs has become important and the prediction of their occurrence rate in a future cycle will give a warning in advance. In the present paper, the occurrence rates of RL and halo CMEs in solar cycle (SC) 25 are predicted. For this, we obtained good correlations between the numbers of RL and halo CMEs in each year and the yearly mean sunspot numbers in the previous two cycles. The predicted values of sunspot numbers in SC 25 by NOAA/NASA were considered as representative indices and the corresponding numbers of RL and halo CMEs have been determined using linear relations. Our results show that the maximum number of RL and halo CMEs will be around 39 $/pm$ 3 and 45 $/pm$ 4, respectively. Removing backside events, a set of front-side events was also considered separately and the front-side events alone in SC 25 are predicted again. The peak values of front-side RL and halo events have been estimated to be around 31 $/pm$ 3 and 29 $/pm$ 3 respectively. These results are discussed in comparison with the predicted values of sunspots by different authors.

Statistical characteristics on SEPs, radio-loud CMEs, low frequency type II and type III radio bursts associated with impulsive and gradual flares

We have statistically analyzed a set of 115 low frequency (Deca- Hectometer wavelengths range) type II and type III bursts associated with major Solar Energetic Particle (SEP: Ep > 10 MeV) events and their solar causes such as solar flares and coronal mass ejections (CMEs) observed from 1997 to 2014. We classified them into two sets of events based on the duration of the associated solar flares:75 impulsive flares (duration < 60 min) and 40 gradual flares (duration > 60 min).The impulsive flare-associated SEP events (Rt = 989.23 min: 2.86 days) are short lived and they quickly reach their peak intensity (shorter rise time) when compared with gradual flares associated events (Rt =1275.45 min: 3.34 days). We found a good correlation between the logarithmic peak intensity of all SEPs and properties of CMEs (space speed: cc = 0.52, SEcc = 0.083), and solar flares (log integrated flux: cc = 0.44, SEcc = 0.083). This particular result gives no clear cut distinction between flare-related and CME-related SEP events for this set of major SEP events. We derived the peak intensity, integrated intensity, duration and slope of these bursts from the radio dynamic spectra observed by Wind/WAVES. Most of the properties (peak intensity, integrated intensity and starting frequency) of DH type II bursts associated with impulsive and gradual flare events are found to be similar in magnitudes. In addition, we also found a significant correlation between the properties of SEPs and key parameters of DH type III bursts. This result shows a closer association of peak intensity of the SEPs with the properties of DH type III radio bursts than with the properties DH type II radio bursts, at least for this set of 115 major SEP events.