Subscribe to the gold package and get unlimited access to Shamra Academy
Register a new userOSPREI: A Coupled Approach to Modeling CME-Driven Space Weather with Automatically-Generated, User-Friendly Outputs
152
0
0.0
(
0
)
Ask ChatGPT about the research
No Arabic abstract
Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) drive space weather activity at Earth and throughout the solar system. Current CME-related space weather predictions rely on information reconstructed from coronagraphs, sometimes from only a single viewpoint, to drive a simple interplanetary propagation model, which only gives the arrival time or limited additional information. We present the coupling of three established models into OSPREI (Open Solar Physics Rapid Ensemble Information), a new tool that describes Sun-to-Earth CME behavior, including the location, orientation, size, shape, speed, arrival time, and internal thermal and magnetic properties, on the timescale needed for forecasts. First, ForeCAT describes the trajectory that a CME takes through the solar corona. Second, ANTEATR simulates the propagation, including expansion and deformation, of a CME in interplanetary space and determines the evolution of internal properties via conservation laws. Finally, FIDO produces in situ profiles for a CMEs interaction with a synthetic spacecraft. OSPREI includes ensemble modeling by varying each input parameter to probe any uncertainty in their values, yielding probabilities for all outputs. Standardized visualizations are automatically generated, providing easily-accessible, essential information for space weather forecasting. We show OSPREI results for a CME observed in the corona on 2021 April 22 and at Earth on 2021 April 25. We approach this CME as a forecasting proof-of-concept, using information analogous to what would be available in real time rather than fine-tuning input parameters to achieve a best fit for a detailed scientific study. The OSPREI prediction shows good agreement with the arrival time and in situ properties.
rate research
Read More
The evolution and propagation of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) in interplanetary space is still not well understood. As a consequence, accurate arrival time and arrival speed forecasts are an unsolved problem in space weather research. In this study, we present the ELlipse Evolution model based on HI observations (ELEvoHI) and introduce a deformable front to this model. ELEvoHI relies on heliospheric imagers (HI) observations to obtain the kinematics of a CME. With the newly developed deformable front, the model is able to react to the ambient solar wind conditions during the entire propagation and along the whole front of the CME. To get an estimate of the ambient solar wind conditions, we make use of three different models: Heliospheric Upwind eXtrapolation model (HUX), Heliospheric Upwind eXtrapolation with time dependence model (HUXt), and EUropean Heliospheric FORecasting Information Asset (EUHFORIA). We test the deformable front on a CME first observed in STEREO-A/HI on February 3, 2010 14:49 UT. For this case study, the deformable front provides better estimates of the arrival time and arrival speed than the original version of ELEvoHI using an elliptical front. The new implementation enables us to study the parameters influencing the propagation of the CME not only for the apex, but for the entire front. The evolution of the CME front, especially at the flanks, is highly dependent on the ambient solar wind model used. An additional advantage of the new implementation is given by the possibility to provide estimates of the CME mass.
On July 25 2017 a multi-step Forbush decrease (FD) with the remarkable total amplitude of more than 15% was observed by MSL/RAD at Mars. We find that these particle signatures are related to very pronounced plasma and magnetic field signatures detected in situ by STEREO-A on July 24 2017, with a higher than average total magnetic field strength reaching more than 60 nT. In the observed time period STEREO-A was at a relatively small longitudinal separation (46 degrees) to Mars and both were located at the back side of the Sun as viewed from Earth. We analyse a number of multi-spacecraft and multi-instrument (both in situ and remote-sensing) observations, and employ modelling to understand these signatures. We find that the solar sources are two CMEs which erupted on July 23 2017 from the same source region on the back side of the Sun as viewed from Earth. Moreover, we find that the two CMEs interact non-uniformly, inhibiting the expansion of one of the CMEs in STEREO-A direction, whereas allowing it to expand more freely in the Mars direction. The interaction of the two CMEs with the ambient solar wind adds up to the complexity of the event, resulting in a long, sub-structured interplanetary disturbance at Mars, where different sub-structures correspond to different steps of the FD, adding-up to a globally large-amplitude FD.
The Sun is an active star that can have a direct impact on the Earth, its magnetosphere, and the technological infrastructure on which modern society depends. Among the phenomena that drive space weather are fast solar wind streams and co-rotating interaction regions, solar flares, coronal mass ejections, the shocks they produce, and the energetic particles they accelerate. Radio emission from these and associated phenomena offer unique diagnostic possibilities that complement those available at other wavelengths. Here, the relevant space weather drivers are briefly described, the potential role of radio observations is outlined, and the requirements of an instrument to provide them are provided: specifically, ultrabroadband imaging spectropolarimetry. The insights provided by radio observations of space weather drivers will not only inform the science of space weather, they will pave the way for new tools for forecasting and nowcasting space weather. They will also serve as an important touchstone against which local environment of exoplanets and the impact of exo-space weather can be evaluated.
Solar flares and coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are closely coupled through magnetic reconnection. CMEs are usually accelerated impulsively within the low solar corona, synchronized with the impulsive flare energy release. We investigate the dynamic evolution of a fast CME and its associated X2.8 flare occurring on 2013 May 13. The CME experiences two distinct phases of enhanced acceleration, an impulsive one with a peak value of ~5 km s$^{-2}$ followed by an extended phase with accelerations up to 0.7 km s$^{-2}$. The two-phase CME dynamics is associated with a two-episode flare energy release. While the first episode is consistent with the standard eruption of a magnetic flux rope, the second episode of flare energy release is initiated by the reconnection of a large-scale loop in the aftermath of the eruption and produces stronger nonthermal emission up to $gamma$-rays. In addition, this long-duration flare reveals clear signs of ongoing magnetic reconnection during the decay phase, evidenced by extended HXR bursts with energies up to 100--300 keV and intermittent downflows of reconnected loops for >4 hours. The observations reveal that the two-step flare reconnection substantially contributes to the two-phase CME acceleration, and the impulsive CME acceleration precedes the most intense flare energy release. The implications of this non-standard flare/CME observation are discussed.
Robots can learn the right reward function by querying a human expert. Existing approaches attempt to choose questions where the robot is most uncertain about the humans response; however, they do not consider how easy it will be for the human to answer! In this paper we explore an information gain formulation for optimally selecting questions that naturally account for the humans ability to answer. Our approach identifies questions that optimize the trade-off between robot and human uncertainty, and determines when these questions become redundant or costly. Simulations and a user study show our method not only produces easy questions, but also ultimately results in faster reward learning.
Log in to be able to interact and post comments
comments
Fetching comments
Sign in to be able to follow your search criteria
