Subscribe to the gold package and get unlimited access to Shamra Academy
Register a new userDiagnostics of Space Weather Drivers Enabled by Radio Observations
102
0
0.0
(
0
)
Ask ChatGPT about the research
No Arabic abstract
The Sun is an active star that can have a direct impact on the Earth, its magnetosphere, and the technological infrastructure on which modern society depends. Among the phenomena that drive space weather are fast solar wind streams and co-rotating interaction regions, solar flares, coronal mass ejections, the shocks they produce, and the energetic particles they accelerate. Radio emission from these and associated phenomena offer unique diagnostic possibilities that complement those available at other wavelengths. Here, the relevant space weather drivers are briefly described, the potential role of radio observations is outlined, and the requirements of an instrument to provide them are provided: specifically, ultrabroadband imaging spectropolarimetry. The insights provided by radio observations of space weather drivers will not only inform the science of space weather, they will pave the way for new tools for forecasting and nowcasting space weather. They will also serve as an important touchstone against which local environment of exoplanets and the impact of exo-space weather can be evaluated.
rate research
Read More
Space weather indices are commonly used to drive operational forecasts of various geospace systems, including the thermosphere for mass density and satellite drag. The drivers serve as proxies for various processes that cause energy flow and deposition in the geospace system. Forecasts of neutral mass density is a major uncertainty in operational orbit prediction and collision avoidance for objects in low earth orbit (LEO). For the strongly driven system, accuracy of space weather driver forecasts is crucial for operations. The High Accuracy Satellite Drag Model (HASDM) currently employed by the United States Air Force in an operational environment is driven by four (4) solar and two (2) geomagnetic proxies. Space Environment Technologies (SET) is contracted by the space command to provide forecasts for the drivers. This work performs a comprehensive assessment for the performance of the driver forecast models. The goal is to provide a benchmark for future improvements of the forecast models. Using an archived data set spanning six (6) years and 15,000 forecasts across solar cycle 24, we quantify the temporal statistics of the model performance.
While the Sun is generally more eruptive during its maximum and declining phases, observational evidence shows certain cases of powerful solar eruptions during the quiet phase of the solar activity. Occurring in the weak Solar Cycle 14 just after its minimum, the extreme space weather event in 1903 October -- November was one of these cases. Here, we reconstruct the time series of geomagnetic activity based on contemporary observational records. With the mid-latitude magnetograms, the 1903 magnetic storm is thought to be caused by a fast coronal mass ejection (~1500 km/s) and is regarded as an intense event with an estimated minimum Dst of ~-513 nT The reconstructed time series has been compared with the equatorward extension of auroral oval (~44.1{deg} in invariant latitude) and the time series of telegraphic disturbances. This case study shows that potential threats posed by extreme space weather events exist even during weak solar cycles or near their minima.
Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) drive space weather activity at Earth and throughout the solar system. Current CME-related space weather predictions rely on information reconstructed from coronagraphs, sometimes from only a single viewpoint, to drive a simple interplanetary propagation model, which only gives the arrival time or limited additional information. We present the coupling of three established models into OSPREI (Open Solar Physics Rapid Ensemble Information), a new tool that describes Sun-to-Earth CME behavior, including the location, orientation, size, shape, speed, arrival time, and internal thermal and magnetic properties, on the timescale needed for forecasts. First, ForeCAT describes the trajectory that a CME takes through the solar corona. Second, ANTEATR simulates the propagation, including expansion and deformation, of a CME in interplanetary space and determines the evolution of internal properties via conservation laws. Finally, FIDO produces in situ profiles for a CMEs interaction with a synthetic spacecraft. OSPREI includes ensemble modeling by varying each input parameter to probe any uncertainty in their values, yielding probabilities for all outputs. Standardized visualizations are automatically generated, providing easily-accessible, essential information for space weather forecasting. We show OSPREI results for a CME observed in the corona on 2021 April 22 and at Earth on 2021 April 25. We approach this CME as a forecasting proof-of-concept, using information analogous to what would be available in real time rather than fine-tuning input parameters to achieve a best fit for a detailed scientific study. The OSPREI prediction shows good agreement with the arrival time and in situ properties.
Advances in space weather science and small satellite (SmallSat) technology have proceeded in parallel over the past two decades, but better communication and coordination is needed among the respective worldwide communities contributing to this rapid progress. We identify six areas where improved international coordination is especially desirable, including: (1) orbital debris mitigation; (2) spectrum management; (3) export control regulations; (4) access to timely and low-cost launch opportunities; (5) inclusive data policies; and (6) education. We argue the need for internationally coordinated policies and programs to promote the use of SmallSats for space weather research and forecasting while realizing maximum scientific and technical advances through the integration of these two increasingly important endeavors.
Monitoring of the Sun and its activity is a task of growing importance in the frame of space weather research and awareness. Major space weather disturbances at Earth have their origin in energetic outbursts from the Sun: solar flares, coronal mass ejections and associated solar energetic particles. In this review we discuss the importance and complementarity of ground-based and space-based observations for space weather studies. The main focus is drawn on ground-based observations in the visible range of the spectrum, in particular in the diagnostically manifold H$alpha$ spectral line, which enables us to detect and study solar flares, filaments, filament eruptions, and Moreton waves. Existing H$alpha$ networks such as the GONG and the Global High-Resolution H$alpha$ Network are discussed. As an example of solar observations from space weather research to operations, we present the system of real-time detection of H$alpha$ flares and filaments established at Kanzelhohe Observatory (KSO; Austria) in the frame of the ESA Space Situational Awareness programme. During the evaluation period 7/2013 - 11/2015, KSO provided 3020 hours of real-time H$alpha$ observations at the SWE portal. In total, 824 H$alpha$ flares were detected and classified by the real-time detection system, including 174 events of H$alpha$ importance class 1 and larger. For the total sample of events, 95% of the automatically determined flare peak times lie within $pm$5 min of the values given in the official optical flares reports (by NOAA and KSO), and 76% of the start times. The heliographic positions determined are better than $pm$5$^circ$. The probability of detection of flares of importance 1 or larger is 95%, with a false alarm rate of 16%. These numbers confirm the high potential of automatic flare detection and alerting from ground-based observatories.
Log in to be able to interact and post comments
comments
Fetching comments
Sign in to be able to follow your search criteria
