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Register a new userDrag-based CME modeling with heliospheric images incorporating frontal deformation: ELEvoHI 2.0
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Added by
J\\\"urgen Hinterreiter
Publication date
2021
fields
Physics
and research's language is
English
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The evolution and propagation of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) in interplanetary space is still not well understood. As a consequence, accurate arrival time and arrival speed forecasts are an unsolved problem in space weather research. In this study, we present the ELlipse Evolution model based on HI observations (ELEvoHI) and introduce a deformable front to this model. ELEvoHI relies on heliospheric imagers (HI) observations to obtain the kinematics of a CME. With the newly developed deformable front, the model is able to react to the ambient solar wind conditions during the entire propagation and along the whole front of the CME. To get an estimate of the ambient solar wind conditions, we make use of three different models: Heliospheric Upwind eXtrapolation model (HUX), Heliospheric Upwind eXtrapolation with time dependence model (HUXt), and EUropean Heliospheric FORecasting Information Asset (EUHFORIA). We test the deformable front on a CME first observed in STEREO-A/HI on February 3, 2010 14:49 UT. For this case study, the deformable front provides better estimates of the arrival time and arrival speed than the original version of ELEvoHI using an elliptical front. The new implementation enables us to study the parameters influencing the propagation of the CME not only for the apex, but for the entire front. The evolution of the CME front, especially at the flanks, is highly dependent on the ambient solar wind model used. An additional advantage of the new implementation is given by the possibility to provide estimates of the CME mass.
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In this study, we present a new method for forecasting arrival times and speeds of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) at any location in the inner heliosphere. This new approach enables the adoption of a highly flexible geometrical shape for the CME front with an adjustable CME angular width and an adjustable radius of curvature of its leading edge, i.e. the assumed geometry is elliptical. Using, as input, STEREO heliospheric imager (HI) observations, a new elliptic conversion (ElCon) method is introduced and combined with the use of drag-based model (DBM) fitting to quantify the deceleration or acceleration experienced by CMEs during propagation. The result is then used as input for the Ellipse Evolution Model (ElEvo). Together, ElCon, DBM fitting, and ElEvo form the novel ElEvoHI forecasting utility. To demonstrate the applicability of ElEvoHI, we forecast the arrival times and speeds of 21 CMEs remotely observed from STEREO/HI and compare them to in situ arrival times and speeds at 1 AU. Compared to the commonly used STEREO/HI fitting techniques (Fixed-$Phi$, Harmonic Mean, and Self-similar Expansion fitting), ElEvoHI improves the arrival time forecast by about 2 hours to $pm 6.5$ hours and the arrival speed forecast by $approx 250$ km s$^{-1}$ to $pm 53$ km s$^{-1}$, depending on the ellipse aspect ratio assumed. In particular, the remarkable improvement of the arrival speed prediction is potentially beneficial for predicting geomagnetic storm strength at Earth.
The Drag-based Model (DBM) is a 2D analytical model for heliospheric propagation of Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) in ecliptic plane predicting the CME arrival time and speed at Earth or any other given target in the solar system. It is based on the equation of motion and depends on initial CME parameters, background solar wind speed, $w$ and the drag parameter $gamma$. A very short computational time of DBM ($<$ 0.01s) allowed us to develop the Drag-Based Ensemble Model (DBEM) that takes into account the variability of model input parameters by making an ensemble of n different input parameters to calculate the distribution and significance of the DBM results. Thus the DBEM is able to calculate the most likely CME arrival times and speeds, quantify the prediction uncertainties and determine the confidence intervals. A new DBEMv3 version is described in detail and evaluated for the first time determing the DBEMv3 performance and errors by using various CME-ICME lists as well as it is compared with previous DB
Accurate forecasting of the arrival time and arrival speed of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) is a unsolved problem in space weather research. In this study, a comparison of the predicted arrival times and speeds for each CME based, independently, on the inputs from the two STEREO vantage points is carried out. We perform hindcasts using ELlipse Evolution model based on Heliospheric Imager observations (ELEvoHI) ensemble modelling. An estimate of the ambient solar wind conditions is obtained by the Wang-Sheeley-Arge/Heliospheric Upwind eXtrapolation (WSA/HUX) model combination that serves as input to ELEvoHI. We carefully select 12 CMEs between February 2010 and July 2012 that show clear signatures in both STEREO-A and STEREO-B HI time-elongation maps, that propagate close to the ecliptic plane, and that have corresponding in situ signatures at Earth. We find a mean arrival time difference of 6.5 hrs between predictions from the two different viewpoints, which can reach up to 9.5 hrs for individual CMEs, while the mean arrival speed difference is 63 km s$^{-1}$. An ambient solar wind with a large speed variance leads to larger differences in the STEREO-A and STEREO-B CME arrival time predictions ($cc~=~0.92$). Additionally, we compare the predicted arrivals, from both spacecraft, to the actual in situ arrivals at Earth and find a mean absolute error of 7.5 $pm$ 9.5 hrs for the arrival time and 87 $pm$ 111 km s$^{-1}$ for the arrival speed. There is no tendency for one spacecraft to provide more accurate arrival predictions than the other.
The forces acting on solar Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) in the interplanetary medium have been evaluated so far in terms of an empirical drag coefficient $C_{rm D} sim 1$ that quantifies the role of the aerodynamic drag experienced by a typical CME due to its interaction with the ambient solar wind. We use a microphysical prescription for viscosity in the turbulent solar wind to obtain an analytical model for the drag coefficient $C_{rm D}$. This is the first physical characterization of the aerodynamic drag experienced by CMEs. We use this physically motivated prescription for $C_{rm D}$ in a simple, 1D model for CME propagation to obtain velocity profiles and travel times that agree well with observations of deceleration experienced by fast CMEs.
A Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) is an inhomogeneous structure consisting of different features which evolve differently with the propagation of the CME. Simultaneous heliospheric tracking of different observed features of a CME can improve our understanding about relative forces acting on them. It also helps to estimate accurately their arrival times at the Earth and identify them in in- situ data. This also enables to find association between remotely observed features and in-situ observations near the Earth. In this paper, we attempt to continuously track two density enhanced features, one at the front and another at the rear edge of the 6 October 2010 CME. This is achieved by using time-elongation maps constructed from STEREO/SECCHI observations. We derive the kinematics of the tracked features using various reconstruction methods. The estimated kinematics are used as inputs in the Drag Based Model (DBM) to estimate the arrival time of the tracked features of the CME at L1. On comparing the estimated kinematics as well as the arrival times of the remotely observed features with in-situ observations by ACE and Wind, we find that the tracked bright feature in the J-map at the rear edge of 6 October 2010 CME corresponds most probably to the enhanced density structure after the magnetic cloud detected by ACE and Wind. In-situ plasma and compositional parameters provide evidence that the rear edge density structure may correspond to a filament associated with the CME while the density enhancement at the front corresponds to the leading edge of the CME. Based on this single event study, we discuss the relevance and significance of heliospheric imager (HI) observations in identification of the three-part structure of the CME.
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