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This article is concerned with the identification of autoregressive with exogenous inputs (ARX) models. Most of the existing approaches like prediction error minimization and state-space framework are widely accepted and utilized for the estimation of ARX models but are known to deliver unbiased and consistent parameter estimates for a correctly supplied guess of input-output orders and delay. In this paper, we propose a novel automated framework which recovers orders, delay, output noise distribution along with parameter estimates. The primary tool utilized in the proposed framework is generalized spectral decomposition. The proposed algorithm systematically estimates all the parameters in two steps. The first step utilizes estimates of the order by examining the generalized eigenvalues, and the second step estimates the parameter from the generalized eigenvectors. Simulation studies are presented to demonstrate the efficacy of the proposed method and are observed to deliver consistent estimates even at low signal to noise ratio (SNR).
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One of the primary challenges of system identification is determining how much data is necessary to adequately fit a model. Non-asymptotic characterizations of the performance of system identification methods provide this knowledge. Such characterizations are available for several algorithms performing open-loop identification. Often times, however, data is collected in closed-loop. Application of open-loop identification methods to closed-loop data can result in biased estimates. One method used by subspace identification techniques to eliminate these biases involves first fitting a long-horizon autoregressive model, then performing model reduction. The asymptotic behavior of such algorithms is well characterized, but the non-asymptotic behavior is not. This work provides a non-asymptotic characterization of one particular variant of these algorithms. More specifically, we provide non-asymptotic upper bounds on the generalization error of the produced model, as well as high probability bounds on the difference between the produced model and the finite horizon Kalman Filter.
Parameter estimation is of foundational importance for various model-based battery management tasks, including charging control, state-of-charge estimation and aging assessment. However, it remains a challenging issue as the existing methods generally depend on cumbersome and time-consuming procedures to extract battery parameters from data. Departing from the literature, this paper sets the unique aim of identifying all the parameters offline in a one-shot procedure, including the resistance and capacitance parameters and the parameters in the parameterized function mapping from the state-of-charge to the open-circuit voltage. Considering the well-known Thevenins battery model, the study begins with the parameter identifiability analysis, showing that all the parameters are locally identifiable. Then, it formulates the parameter identification problem in a prediction-error-minimization framework. As the non-convexity intrinsic to the problem may lead to physically meaningless estimates, two methods are developed to overcome this issue. The first one is to constrain the parameter search within a reasonable space by setting parameter bounds, and the other adopts regularization of the cost function using prior parameter guess. The proposed identifiability analysis and identification methods are extensively validated through simulations and experiments.
As electric grids experience high penetration levels of renewable generation, fundamental changes are required to address real-time situational awareness. This paper uses unique traits of tensors to devise a model-free situational awareness and energy forecasting framework for distribution networks. This work formulates the state of the network at multiple time instants as a three-way tensor; hence, recovering full state information of the network is tantamount to estimating all the values of the tensor. Given measurements received from $mu$phasor measurement units and/or smart meters, the recovery of unobserved quantities is carried out using the low-rank canonical polyadic decomposition of the state tensor---that is, the state estimation task is posed as a tensor imputation problem utilizing observed patterns in measured quantities. Two structured sampling schemes are considered: slab sampling and fiber sampling. For both schemes, we present sufficient conditions on the number of sampled slabs and fibers that guarantee identifiability of the factors of the state tensor. Numerical results demonstrate the ability of the proposed framework to achieve high estimation accuracy in multiple sampling scenarios.
We consider a cooperative system identification scenario in which an expert agent (teacher) knows a correct, or at least a good, model of the system and aims to assist a learner-agent (student), but cannot directly transfer its knowledge to the student. For example, the teachers knowledge of the system might be abstract or the teacher and student might be employing different model classes, which renders the teachers parameters uninformative to the student. In this paper, we propose correctional learning as an approach to the above problem: Suppose that in order to assist the student, the teacher can intercept the observations collected from the system and modify them to maximize the amount of information the student receives about the system. We formulate a general solution as an optimization problem, which for a multinomial system instantiates itself as an integer program. Furthermore, we obtain finite-sample results on the improvement that the assistance from the teacher results in (as measured by the reduction in the variance of the estimator) for a binomial system.
A new analytical framework consisting of two phenomena: single sample and multiple samples, is proposed to deal with the identification problem of Boolean control networks (BCNs) systematically and comprehensively. Under this framework, the existing works on identification can be categorized as special cases of these two phenomena. Several effective criteria for determining the identifiability and the corresponding identification algorithms are proposed. Three important results are derived: (1) If a BN is observable, it is uniquely identifiable; (2) If a BCN is O1-observable, it is uniquely identifiable, where O1-observability is the most general form of the existing observability terms; (3) A BN or BCN may be identifiable, but not observable. In addition, remarks present some challenging future research and contain a preliminary attempt about how to identify unobservable systems.
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