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Spencer Wheatley Mr.
Publication date
2015
fields
Physics
and research's language is
English
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We provide, and perform a risk theoretic statistical analysis of, a dataset that is 75 percent larger than the previous best dataset on nuclear incidents and accidents, comparing three measures of severity: INES (International Nuclear Event Scale), radiation released, and damage dollar losses. The annual rate of nuclear accidents, with size above 20 Million US$, per plant, decreased from the 1950s until dropping significantly after Chernobyl (April, 1986). The rate is now roughly stable at 0.002 to 0.003, i.e., around 1 event per year across the current fleet. The distribution of damage values changed after Three Mile Island (TMI; March, 1979), where moderate damages were suppressed but the tail became very heavy, being described by a Pareto distribution with tail index 0.55. Further, there is a runaway disaster regime, associated with the dragon-king phenomenon, amplifying the risk of extreme damage. In fact, the damage of the largest event (Fukushima; March, 2011) is equal to 60 percent of the total damage of all 174 accidents in our database since 1946. In dollar losses we compute a 50% chance that (i) a Fukushima event (or larger) occurs in the next 50 years, (ii) a Chernobyl event (or larger) occurs in the next 27 years and (iii) a TMI event (or larger) occurs in the next 10 years. Finally, we find that the INES scale is inconsistent. To be consistent with damage, the Fukushima disaster would need to have an INES level of 11, rather than the maximum of 7.
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This introductory article presents the special Discussion and Debate volume From black swans to dragon-kings, is there life beyond power laws? published in Eur. Phys. J. Special Topics in May 2012. We summarize and put in perspective the contributions into three main themes: (i) mechanisms for dragon-kings, (ii) detection of dragon-kings and statistical tests and (iii) empirical evidence in a large variety of natural and social systems. Overall, we are pleased to witness significant advances both in the introduction and clarification of underlying mechanisms and in the development of novel efficient tests that demonstrate clear evidence for the presence of dragon-kings in many systems. However, this positive view should be balanced by the fact that this remains a very delicate and difficult field, if only due to the scarcity of data as well as the extraordinary important implications with respect to hazard assessment, risk control and predictability.
Responding to natural disasters, such as earthquakes, floods, and wildfires, is a laborious task performed by on-the-ground emergency responders and analysts. Social media has emerged as a low-latency data source to quickly understand disaster situations. While most studies on social media are limited to text, images offer more information for understanding disaster and incident scenes. However, no large-scale image datasets for incident detection exists. In this work, we present the Incidents Dataset, which contains 446,684 images annotated by humans that cover 43 incidents across a variety of scenes. We employ a baseline classification model that mitigates false-positive errors and we perform image filtering experiments on millions of social media images from Flickr and Twitter. Through these experiments, we show how the Incidents Dataset can be used to detect images with incidents in the wild. Code, data, and models are available online at http://incidentsdataset.csail.mit.edu.
Extreme events are characterised by low probabilities and high impact on the systems. As a consequence, it is possible to find many studies about the predictability and suppression of extreme events. In this work, we show the existence of dragon-kings extreme events in nonlinear three-wave interactions. Dragon-king extreme events, identified by phase transitions, tipping points, and catastrophes, affects fluctuating systems. We show that these events can be avoided by adding a perturbing small amplitude wave to the system.
We performed statistical analysis on data from the Digg.com website, which enables its users to express their opinion on news stories by taking part in forum-like discussions as well as directly evaluate previous posts and stories by assigning so called diggs. Owing to fact that the content of each post has been annotated with its emotional value, apart from the strictly structural properties, the study also includes an analysis of the average emotional response of the posts commenting the main story. While analysing correlations at the story level, an interesting relationship between the number of diggs and the number of comments received by a story was found. The correlation between the two quantities is high for data where small threads dominate and consistently decreases for longer threads. However, while the correlation of the number of diggs and the average emotional response tends to grow for longer threads, correlations between numbers of comments and the average emotional response are almost zero. We also show that the initial set of comments given to a story has a substantial impact on the further life of the discussion: high negative average emotions in the first 10 comments lead to longer threads while the opposite situation results in shorter discussions. We also suggest presence of two different mechanisms governing the evolution of the discussion and, consequently, its length.
Through the past decade the field of network science has established itself as a common ground for the cross-fertilization of exciting inter-disciplinary studies which has motivated researchers to model almost every physical system as an interacting network consisting of nodes and links. Although public transport networks such as airline and railway networks have been extensively studied, the status of bus networks still remains in obscurity. In developing countries like India, where bus networks play an important role in day-to-day commutation, it is of significant interest to analyze its topological structure and answer some of the basic questions on its evolution, growth, robustness and resiliency. In this paper, we model the bus networks of major Indian cities as graphs in textit{L}-space, and evaluate their various statistical properties using concepts from network science. Our analysis reveals a wide spectrum of network topology with the common underlying feature of small-world property. We observe that the networks although, robust and resilient to random attacks are particularly degree-sensitive. Unlike real-world networks, like Internet, WWW and airline, which are virtual, bus networks are physically constrained. The presence of various geographical and economic constraints allow these networks to evolve over time. Our findings therefore, throw light on the evolution of such geographically and socio-economically constrained networks which will help us in designing more efficient networks in the future.
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