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Register a new userLarge extinctions in an evolutionary model: The role of innovation and keystone species
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The causes of major and rapid transitions observed in biological macroevolution as well as in the evolution of social systems are a subject of much debate. Here we identify the proximate causes of crashes and recoveries that arise dynamically in a model system in which populations of (molecular) species co-evolve with their network of chemical interactions. Crashes are events that involve the rapid extinction of many species and recoveries the assimilation of new ones. These are analyzed and classified in terms of the structural properties of the network. We find that in the absence of large external perturbation, `innovation is a major cause of large extinctions and the prime cause of recoveries. Another major cause of crashes is the extinction of a `keystone species. Different classes of causes produce crashes of different characteristic sizes.
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Community ecology has traditionally relied on the competitive exclusion principle, a piece of common wisdom in conceptual frameworks developed to describe species assemblages. Key concepts in community ecology, such as limiting similarity and niche partitioning, are based on competitive exclusion. However, this classical paradigm in ecology relies on implications derived from simple, deterministic models. Here we show how the predictions of a symmetric, deterministic model about the way extinctions proceed can be utterly different from the results derived from the same model when ecological drift (demographic stochasticity) is explicitly considered. Using analytical approximations to the steady-state conditional probabilities for assemblages with two and three species, we demonstrate that stochastic competitive exclusion leads to a cascade of extinctions, whereas the symmetric, deterministic model predicts a multiple collapse of species. To test the robustness of our results, we have studied the effect of environmental stochasticity and relaxed the species symmetry assumption. Our conclusions highlight the crucial role of stochasticity when deriving reliable theoretical predictions for species community assembly.
This paper is placed at the intersection-point between the study of theoretical computational models aimed at capturing the essence of genetic regulatory networks and the field of Artificial Embryology (or Computational Development). A model is proposed, with the objective of providing an effective way to generate arbitrary forms by using evolutionary-developmental techniques. Preliminary experiments have been performed.
I analyse a model of an evolving network represented as a directed graph; each node corresponds to one molecular species and the links to catalytic interactions between species. Over short timescales the graph remains fixed while relative populations of the molecular species change according to a set of coupled differential equations. Over long timescales the system is subject to periodic perturbations, each of which adds one new node to the graph, with random links to other nodes, and removes one node with the least relative population. Starting from a sparse random graph, a small autocatalytic set (ACS) inevitably forms and then grows by accreting nodes until it spans the entire graph. The resultant fully autocatalytic graph, whose probability of forming by pure chance is very small, nevertheless forms in this model in an average time that grows only logarithmically with the size of the system. ACSs can also get destroyed, often accompanied by the sudden extinction of a large number of species. I show that the largest of the extinction events in this model are caused by one of three mechanisms, each of which produces a specific discontinuous change in the graphs topology. The model is analytically tractable: two theorems are proved which determine the set of nodes with least relative population in the attractor, for any given graph. This in turn can be used to analytically demonstrate the inevitability of the formation and growth of ACSs and calculate the associated timescales. Finally, I show that the formation and growth of ACSs is robust to the relaxation of many of the idealizations made to enhance the analytical tractability of the model.
Top-down causation has been suggested to occur at all scales of biological organization as a mechanism for explaining the hierarchy of structure and causation in living systems. Here we propose that a transition from bottom-up to top-down causation -- mediated by a reversal in the flow of information from lower to higher levels of organization, to that from higher to lower levels of organization -- is a driving force for most major evolutionary transitions. We suggest that many major evolutionary transitions might therefore be marked by a transition in causal structure. We use logistic growth as a toy model for demonstrating how such a transition can drive the emergence of collective behavior in replicative systems. We then outline how this scenario may have played out in those major evolutionary transitions in which new, higher levels of organization emerged, and propose possible methods via which our hypothesis might be tested.
Human associated microbial communities exert tremendous influence over human health and disease. With modern metagenomic sequencing methods it is possible to follow the relative abundance of microbes in a community over time. These microbial communities exhibit rich ecological dynamics and an important goal of microbial ecology is to infer the interactions between species from sequence data. Any algorithm for inferring species interactions must overcome three obstacles: 1) a correlation between the abundances of two species does not imply that those species are interacting, 2) the sum constraint on the relative abundances obtained from metagenomic studies makes it difficult to infer the parameters in timeseries models, and 3) errors due to experimental uncertainty, or mis-assignment of sequencing reads into operational taxonomic units, bias inferences of species interactions. Here we introduce an approach, Learning Interactions from MIcrobial Time Series (LIMITS), that overcomes these obstacles. LIMITS uses sparse linear regression with boostrap aggregation to infer a discrete-time Lotka-Volterra model for microbial dynamics. We tested LIMITS on synthetic data and showed that it could reliably infer the topology of the inter-species ecological interactions. We then used LIMITS to characterize the species interactions in the gut microbiomes of two individuals and found that the interaction networks varied significantly between individuals. Furthermore, we found that the interaction networks of the two individuals are dominated by distinct keystone species, Bacteroides fragilis and Bacteroided stercosis, that have a disproportionate influence on the structure of the gut microbiome even though they are only found in moderate abundance. Based on our results, we hypothesize that the abundances of certain keystone species may be responsible for individuality in the human gut microbiome.
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