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Register a new userHigher Order Kernel Mean Embeddings to Capture Filtrations of Stochastic Processes
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Stochastic processes are random variables with values in some space of paths. However, reducing a stochastic process to a path-valued random variable ignores its filtration, i.e. the flow of information carried by the process through time. By conditioning the process on its filtration, we introduce a family of higher order kernel mean embeddings (KMEs) that generalizes the notion of KME and captures additional information related to the filtration. We derive empirical estimators for the associated higher order maximum mean discrepancies (MMDs) and prove consistency. We then construct a filtration-sensitive kernel two-sample test able to pick up information that gets missed by the standard MMD test. In addition, leveraging our higher order MMDs we construct a family of universal kernels on stochastic processes that allows to solve real-world calibration and optimal stopping problems in quantitative finance (such as the pricing of American options) via classical kernel-based regression methods. Finally, adapting existing tests for conditional independence to the case of stochastic processes, we design a causal-discovery algorithm to recover the causal graph of structural dependencies among interacting bodies solely from observations of their multidimensional trajectories.
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We propose to analyse the conditional distributional treatment effect (CoDiTE), which, in contrast to the more common conditional average treatment effect (CATE), is designed to encode a treatments distributional aspects beyond the mean. We first introduce a formal definition of the CoDiTE associated with a distance function between probability measures. Then we discuss the CoDiTE associated with the maximum mean discrepancy via kernel conditional mean embeddings, which, coupled with a hypothesis test, tells us whether there is any conditional distributional effect of the treatment. Finally, we investigate what kind of conditional distributional effect the treatment has, both in an exploratory manner via the conditional witness function, and in a quantitative manner via U-statistic regression, generalising the CATE to higher-order moments. Experiments on synthetic, semi-synthetic and real datasets demonstrate the merits of our approach.
Counterfactual inference has become a ubiquitous tool in online advertisement, recommendation systems, medical diagnosis, and econometrics. Accurate modeling of outcome distributions associated with different interventions -- known as counterfactual distributions -- is crucial for the success of these applications. In this work, we propose to model counterfactual distributions using a novel Hilbert space representation called counterfactual mean embedding (CME). The CME embeds the associated counterfactual distribution into a reproducing kernel Hilbert space (RKHS) endowed with a positive definite kernel, which allows us to perform causal inference over the entire landscape of the counterfactual distribution. Based on this representation, we propose a distributional treatment effect (DTE) that can quantify the causal effect over entire outcome distributions. Our approach is nonparametric as the CME can be estimated under the unconfoundedness assumption from observational data without requiring any parametric assumption about the underlying distributions. We also establish a rate of convergence of the proposed estimator which depends on the smoothness of the conditional mean and the Radon-Nikodym derivative of the underlying marginal distributions. Furthermore, our framework allows for more complex outcomes such as images, sequences, and graphs. Our experimental results on synthetic data and off-policy evaluation tasks demonstrate the advantages of the proposed estimator.
We define deep kernel processes in which positive definite Gram matrices are progressively transformed by nonlinear kernel functions and by sampling from (inverse) Wishart distributions. Remarkably, we find that deep Gaussian processes (DGPs), Bayesian neural networks (BNNs), infinite BNNs, and infinite BNNs with bottlenecks can all be written as deep kernel processes. For DGPs the equivalence arises because the Gram matrix formed by the inner product of features is Wishart distributed, and as we show, standard isotropic kernels can be written entirely in terms of this Gram matrix -- we do not need knowledge of the underlying features. We define a tractable deep kernel process, the deep inverse Wishart process, and give a doubly-stochastic inducing-point variational inference scheme that operates on the Gram matrices, not on the features, as in DGPs. We show that the deep inverse Wishart process gives superior performance to DGPs and infinite BNNs on standard fully-connected baselines.
Gaussian processes (GPs) are used to make medical and scientific decisions, including in cardiac care and monitoring of carbon dioxide emissions. But the choice of GP kernel is often somewhat arbitrary. In particular, uncountably many kernels typically align with qualitative prior knowledge (e.g. function smoothness or stationarity). But in practice, data analysts choose among a handful of convenient standard kernels (e.g. squared exponential). In the present work, we ask: Would decisions made with a GP differ under other, qualitatively interchangeable kernels? We show how to formulate this sensitivity analysis as a constrained optimization problem over a finite-dimensional space. We can then use standard optimizers to identify substantive changes in relevant decisions made with a GP. We demonstrate in both synthetic and real-world examples that decisions made with a GP can exhibit substantial sensitivity to kernel choice, even when prior draws are qualitatively interchangeable to a user.
Fishers linear discriminant analysis is a classical method for classification, yet it is limited to capturing linear features only. Kernel discriminant analysis as an extension is known to successfully alleviate the limitation through a nonlinear feature mapping. We study the geometry of nonlinear embeddings in discriminant analysis with polynomial kernels and Gaussian kernel by identifying the population-level discriminant function that depends on the data distribution and the kernel. In order to obtain the discriminant function, we solve a generalized eigenvalue problem with between-class and within-class covariance operators. The polynomial discriminants are shown to capture the class difference through the population moments explicitly. For approximation of the Gaussian discriminant, we use a particular representation of the Gaussian kernel by utilizing the exponential generating function for Hermite polynomials. We also show that the Gaussian discriminant can be approximated using randomized projections of the data. Our results illuminate how the data distribution and the kernel interact in determination of the nonlinear embedding for discrimination, and provide a guideline for choice of the kernel and its parameters.
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