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Register a new userA dynamic model of the stochastic Drake Equation including a model of interaction amongst ETIs
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Authors
Reginald D. Smith
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The Drake Equation has proven fertile ground for speculation about the abundance, or lack thereof, of communicating extraterrestrial intelligences (CETIs) for decades. It has been augmented by subsequent authors to include random variables in order to understand its probabilistic behavior. In this paper, the first model for the number of CETIs with stochastic processes governing both their emergence and quiescence is developed using the Skellam Distribution. Results from this include the possibility that there can still be substantial times multiple CETIs exist even if the Drake Equation terms are approximately zero. In addition, it can give us a basic estimate of the average CETI age gap based on their broadcast time. Finally, we will introduce a definition of how the interaction between CETIs, where possible, can be measured by statistical dependence between the terms N and L in the Drake Equation by indicating how the number of co-existing CETIs affect their relative individual lifetimes.
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