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Register a new userEvidence for a Non-Dichotomous Solution to the Kepler Dichotomy: Mutual Inclinations of Kepler Planetary Systems from Transit Duration Variations
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Early analyses of exoplanet statistics from the Kepler Mission revealed that a model population of multiple-planet systems with low mutual inclinations (${sim1^{circ}-2^{circ}}$) adequately describes the multiple-transiting systems but underpredicts the number of single-transiting systems. This so-called Kepler dichotomy signals the existence of a sub-population of multi-planet systems possessing larger mutual inclinations. However, the details of these inclinations remain uncertain. In this work, we derive constraints on the intrinsic mutual inclination distribution by statistically exploiting Transit Duration Variations (TDVs) of the Kepler planet population. When planetary orbits are mutually inclined, planet-planet interactions cause orbital precession, which can lead to detectable long-term changes in transit durations. These TDV signals are inclination-sensitive and have been detected for roughly two dozen Kepler planets. We compare the properties of the Kepler observed TDV detections to TDV detections of simulated planetary systems constructed from two population models with differing assumptions about the mutual inclination distribution. We find strong evidence for a continuous distribution of relatively low mutual inclinations that is well-characterized by a power law relationship between the median mutual inclination ($tilde{mu}_{i,n}$) and the intrinsic multiplicity ($n$): $tilde{mu}_{i,n} = tilde{mu}_{i,5}(n/5)^{alpha}$, where $tilde{mu}_{i,5} = 1.10^{+0.15}_{-0.11}$ and $alpha = -1.73^{+0.09}_{-0.08}$. These results suggest that late-stage planet assembly and possibly stellar oblateness are the dominant physical origins for the excitation of Kepler planet mutual inclinations.
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A planets orbital orientation relative to an observers line of sight determines the chord length for a transiting planet, i.e., the projected distance a transiting planet travels across the stellar disc. For a given circular orbit, the chord length determines the transit duration. Changes in the orbital inclination, the direction of the ascending node, or both, can alter this chord length and thus result in transit duration variations (TDVs). Variation of the full orbital inclination vector can even lead to de-transiting or newly transiting planets for a system. We use Laplace-Lagrange secular theory to estimate the fastest nodal eigenfrequencies for over 100 short-period planetary systems. The highest eigenfrequency is an indicator of which systems should show the strongest TDVs. We further explore five cases (TRAPPIST-1, Kepler-11, K2-138, Kepler-445, and Kepler-334) using direct N-body simulations to characterize possible TDVs and to explore whether de-transiting planets could be possible for these systems. A range of initial conditions are explored, with each realization being consistent with the observed transits. We find that tens of percent of multiplanet systems have fast enough eigenfrequencies to expect large TDVs on decade timescales. Among the directly integrated cases, we find that de-transiting planets could occur on decade timescales and TDVs of 10 minutes per decade should be common.
Holczer, Mazeh, and collaborators (HM+16) used the Kepler four-year observations to derive a transit-timing catalog, identifying 260 Kepler objects of interest (KOI) with significant transit timing variations (TTV). For KOIs with high enough SNRs, HM+16 also derived the duration and depth of their transits. In the present work, we use the duration measurements of HM+16 to systematically study the duration changes of 561 KOIs and identify 15 KOIs with a significant long-term linear change of transit durations and another 16 KOIs with an intermediate significance. We show that the observed linear trend is probably caused by a precession of the orbital plane of the transiting planet, induced in most cases by another planet. The leading term of the precession rate depends on the mass and relative inclination of the perturber, and the period ratio between the two orbits, but not on the mass and period of the transiting planet itself. Interestingly, our findings indicate that, as a sample, the detected time derivatives of the durations get larger as a function of the planetary orbital period, probably because short-period planetary systems display small relative inclinations. The results might indicate that short-period planets reside in relatively flattened planetary systems, suggesting these systems experienced stronger dissipation either when formed or when migrated to short orbits. This should be used as a possible clue for the formation of such systems.
We study the excitation of planet inclination by a novel secular-orbital resonance in multiplanet systems perturbed by binary companions which we call ivection. Ivection resonance happens when the nodal precession rate of the planet matches a multiple of the orbital frequency of the binary, and its physical nature is similar to the previously-studied evection resonance. Capture into an ivection resonance requires the nodal precession rate to slowly increase passed the resonant value during planet migration, and will excite the mutual inclination of the planets without affecting their eccentricities. If the system encounters another resonance (e.g., a mean-motion resonance) after being captured into an ivection resonance, resonance overlap can make the system dynamically unstable, ejecting the smaller planet. Using ivection resonance, we are able to explain why planets in Kepler-108 have significant mutual inclination but modest eccentricity. We also find a deficit of multiplanet systems which would have nodal precession period comparable to binary orbital period, suggesting that ivection resonance may inhibit the formation or destablize multiplanet systems with external binary companion.
Aims. Hot Jupiters are thought to belong to single-planet systems. Somewhat surprisingly, some hot Jupiters have been reported to exhibit transit timing variations (TTVs). The aim of this paper is to identify the origin of these observations, identify possible periodic biases leading to false TTV detections, and refine the sample to a few candidates with likely dynamical TTVs. Methods. We present TTV frequencies and amplitudes of hot Jupiters in Kepler Q0--6 data with Fourier analysis and a frequency-dependent bootstrap calculation to assess the false alarm probability levels of the detections. Results. We identified 36 systems with TTV above four standard deviation confidence, about half of them exhibiting multiple TTV frequencies. Fifteen of these objects (HAT-P-7b, KOI-13, 127, 183, 188, 190, 196, 225, 254, 428, 607, 609, 684, 774, 1176) probably show TTVs due to a systematic observational effect: long cadence data sampling is regularly shifted transit-by-transit, interacting with the transit light curves, introducing a periodic bias, and leading to a stroboscopic period. For other systems, the activity and rotation of the host star can modulate light curves and explain the observed TTVs. By excluding the systems that were inadequately sampled, showed TTV periods related to the stellar rotation, or turned out to be false positives or suspects, we ended up with seven systems. Three of them (KOI-186, 897, 977) show the weakest stellar rotation features, and these are our best candidates for dynamically induced TTV variations. Conclusions. Those systems with periodic TTVs that we cannot explain with systematics from observation, stellar rotation, activity, or inadequate sampling may be multiple systems or even exomoon hosts.
During its four years of photometric observations, the Kepler space telescope detected thousands of exoplanets and exoplanet candidates. One of Keplers greatest heritages has been the confirmation and characterization of hundreds of multi-planet systems via Transit Timing Variations (TTVs). However, there are many interesting candidate systems displaying TTVs on such long time scales that the existing Kepler observations are of insufficient length to confirm and characterize them by means of this technique. To continue with Keplers unique work we have organized the Kepler Object of Interest Network (KOINet). The goals of KOINet are, among others, to complete the TTV curves of systems where Kepler did not cover the interaction timescales well. KOINet has been operational since March, 2014. Here we show some promising first results obtained from analyzing seven primary transits of KOI-0410.01, KOI-0525.01, KOI-0760.01, and KOI-0902.01 in addition to Kepler data, acquired during the first and second observing seasons of KOINet. While carefully choosing the targets we set demanding constraints about timing precision (at least 1 minute) and photometric precision (as good as 1 part per thousand) that were achieved by means of our observing strategies and data analysis techniques. For KOI-0410.01, new transit data revealed a turn-over of its TTVs. We carried out an in-depth study of the system, that is identified in the NASAs Data Validation Report as false positive. Among others, we investigated a gravitationally-bound hierarchical triple star system, and a planet-star system. While the simultaneous transit fitting of ground and space-based data allowed for a planet solution, we could not fully reject the three-star scenario. New data, already scheduled in the upcoming 2018 observing season, will set tighter constraints on the nature of the system.
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