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A planets orbital orientation relative to an observers line of sight determines the chord length for a transiting planet, i.e., the projected distance a transiting planet travels across the stellar disc. For a given circular orbit, the chord length determines the transit duration. Changes in the orbital inclination, the direction of the ascending node, or both, can alter this chord length and thus result in transit duration variations (TDVs). Variation of the full orbital inclination vector can even lead to de-transiting or newly transiting planets for a system. We use Laplace-Lagrange secular theory to estimate the fastest nodal eigenfrequencies for over 100 short-period planetary systems. The highest eigenfrequency is an indicator of which systems should show the strongest TDVs. We further explore five cases (TRAPPIST-1, Kepler-11, K2-138, Kepler-445, and Kepler-334) using direct N-body simulations to characterize possible TDVs and to explore whether de-transiting planets could be possible for these systems. A range of initial conditions are explored, with each realization being consistent with the observed transits. We find that tens of percent of multiplanet systems have fast enough eigenfrequencies to expect large TDVs on decade timescales. Among the directly integrated cases, we find that de-transiting planets could occur on decade timescales and TDVs of 10 minutes per decade should be common.
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Transit timing variations (TTVs) are useful to constrain the existence of perturbing planets, especially in resonant systems where the variations are strongly enhanced. Here we focus on Laplace-resonant three-planet systems, and assume the inner planet transits the star. A dynamical study is performed for different masses of the three bodies, with a special attention to terrestrial planets. We consider a maximal time-span of ~ 100 years and discuss the shape of the inner planet TTVs curve. Using frequency analysis, we highlight the three periods related to the evolution of the system: two periods associated with the Laplace-resonant angle and the third one with the precession of the pericenters. These three periods are clearly detected in the TTVs of an inner giant planet perturbed by two terrestrial companions. Only two periods are detected for a Jupiter-Jupiter-Earth configuration (the ones associated with the giant interactions) or for three terrestrial planets (the Laplace periods). However, the latter system can be constrained from the inner planet TTVs. We finally remark that the TTVs of resonant three or two Jupiter systems mix up, when the period of the Laplace resonant angle matches the pericenter precession of the two-body configuration. This study highlights the importance of TTVs long-term observational programs for the detection of multiple-planet resonant systems.
Early analyses of exoplanet statistics from the Kepler Mission revealed that a model population of multiple-planet systems with low mutual inclinations (${sim1^{circ}-2^{circ}}$) adequately describes the multiple-transiting systems but underpredicts the number of single-transiting systems. This so-called Kepler dichotomy signals the existence of a sub-population of multi-planet systems possessing larger mutual inclinations. However, the details of these inclinations remain uncertain. In this work, we derive constraints on the intrinsic mutual inclination distribution by statistically exploiting Transit Duration Variations (TDVs) of the Kepler planet population. When planetary orbits are mutually inclined, planet-planet interactions cause orbital precession, which can lead to detectable long-term changes in transit durations. These TDV signals are inclination-sensitive and have been detected for roughly two dozen Kepler planets. We compare the properties of the Kepler observed TDV detections to TDV detections of simulated planetary systems constructed from two population models with differing assumptions about the mutual inclination distribution. We find strong evidence for a continuous distribution of relatively low mutual inclinations that is well-characterized by a power law relationship between the median mutual inclination ($tilde{mu}_{i,n}$) and the intrinsic multiplicity ($n$): $tilde{mu}_{i,n} = tilde{mu}_{i,5}(n/5)^{alpha}$, where $tilde{mu}_{i,5} = 1.10^{+0.15}_{-0.11}$ and $alpha = -1.73^{+0.09}_{-0.08}$. These results suggest that late-stage planet assembly and possibly stellar oblateness are the dominant physical origins for the excitation of Kepler planet mutual inclinations.
We present a method to confirm the planetary nature of objects in systems with multiple transiting exoplanet candidates. This method involves a Fourier-Domain analysis of the deviations in the transit times from a constant period that result from dynamical interactions within the system. The combination of observed anti-correlations in the transit times and mass constraints from dynamical stability allow us to claim the discovery of four planetary systems Kepler-25, Kepler-26, Kepler-27, and Kepler-28, containing eight planets and one additional planet candidate.
The Kepler Mission is monitoring the brightness of ~150,000 stars searching for evidence of planetary transits. As part of the Hunt for Exomoons with Kepler (HEK) project, we report a planetary system with two confirmed planets and one candidate planet discovered using the publicly available data for KOI-872. Planet b transits the host star with a period P_b=33.6d and exhibits large transit timing variations indicative of a perturber. Dynamical modeling uniquely detects an outer nontransiting planet c near the 5:3 resonance (P_c=57.0d) of mass 0.37 times that of Jupiter. Transits of a third planetary candidate are also found: a 1.7-Earth radius super-Earth with a 6.8d period. Our analysis indicates a system with nearly coplanar and circular orbits, reminiscent of the orderly arrangement within the solar system.
We study systems of close orbiting planets evolving under the influence of tidal circularization. It is supposed that a commensurability forms through the action of disk induced migration and orbital circularization. After the system enters an inner cavity or the disk disperses the evolution continues under the influence of tides due to the central star which induce orbital circularization. We derive approximate analytic models that describe the evolution away from a general first order resonance that results from tidal circularization in a two planet system and which can be shown to be a direct consequence of the conservation of energy and angular momentum. We consider the situation when the system is initially very close to resonance and also when the system is between resonances. We also perform numerical simulations which confirm these models and then apply them to two and four planet systems chosen to have parameters related to the GJ581 and HD10180 systems. We also estimate the tidal dissipation rates through effective quality factors that could result in evolution to observed period ratios within the lifetimes of the systems. Thus the survival of, or degree of departure from, close commensurabilities in observed systems may be indicative of the effectiveness of tidal disipation, a feature which in turn may be related to the internal structure of the planets involved.
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