Subscribe to the gold package and get unlimited access to Shamra Academy
Register a new userPrediction of Landfall Intensity, Location, and Time of a Tropical Cyclone
107
0
0.0
(
0
)
Added by
Sandeep Kumar
Publication date
2021
fields
Informatics Engineering
and research's language is
English
Ask ChatGPT about the research
No Arabic abstract
The prediction of the intensity, location and time of the landfall of a tropical cyclone well advance in time and with high accuracy can reduce human and material loss immensely. In this article, we develop a Long Short-Term memory based Recurrent Neural network model to predict intensity (in terms of maximum sustained surface wind speed), location (latitude and longitude), and time (in hours after the observation period) of the landfall of a tropical cyclone which originates in the North Indian ocean. The model takes as input the best track data of cyclone consisting of its location, pressure, sea surface temperature, and intensity for certain hours (from 12 to 36 hours) anytime during the course of the cyclone as a time series and then provide predictions with high accuracy. For example, using 24 hours data of a cyclone anytime during its course, the model provides state-of-the-art results by predicting landfall intensity, time, latitude, and longitude with a mean absolute error of 4.24 knots, 4.5 hours, 0.24 degree, and 0.37 degree respectively, which resulted in a distance error of 51.7 kilometers from the landfall location. We further check the efficacy of the model on three recent devastating cyclones Bulbul, Fani, and Gaja, and achieved better results than the test dataset.
rate research
Read More
Landfall of a tropical cyclone is the event when it moves over the land after crossing the coast of the ocean. It is important to know the characteristics of the landfall in terms of location and time, well advance in time to take preventive measures timely. In this article, we develop a deep learning model based on the combination of a Convolutional Neural network and a Long Short-Term memory network to predict the landfalls location and time of a tropical cyclone in six ocean basins of the world with high accuracy. We have used high-resolution spacial reanalysis data, ERA5, maintained by European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF). The model takes any 9 hours, 15 hours, or 21 hours of data, during the progress of a tropical cyclone and predicts its landfalls location in terms of latitude and longitude and time in hours. For 21 hours of data, we achieve mean absolute error for landfalls location prediction in the range of 66.18 - 158.92 kilometers and for landfalls time prediction in the range of 4.71 - 8.20 hours across all six ocean basins. The model can be trained in just 30 to 45 minutes (based on ocean basin) and can predict the landfalls location and time in a few seconds, which makes it suitable for real time prediction.
Tropical cyclone (TC) intensity forecasts are ultimately issued by human forecasters. The human in-the-loop pipeline requires that any forecasting guidance must be easily digestible by TC experts if it is to be adopted at operational centers like the National Hurricane Center. Our proposed framework leverages deep learning to provide forecasters with something neither end-to-end prediction models nor traditional intensity guidance does: a powerful tool for monitoring high-dimensional time series of key physically relevant predictors and the means to understand how the predictors relate to one another and to short-term intensity changes.
Tropical cyclones can be of varied intensity and cause a huge loss of lives and property if the intensity is high enough. Therefore, the prediction of the intensity of tropical cyclones advance in time is of utmost importance. We propose a novel stacked bidirectional long short-term memory network (BiLSTM) based model architecture to predict the intensity of a tropical cyclone in terms of Maximum surface sustained wind speed (MSWS). The proposed model can predict MSWS well advance in time (up to 72 h) with very high accuracy. We have applied the model on tropical cyclones in the North Indian Ocean from 1982 to 2018 and checked its performance on two recent tropical cyclones, namely, Fani and Vayu. The model predicts MSWS (in knots) for the next 3, 12, 24, 36, 48, 60, and 72 hours with a mean absolute error of 1.52, 3.66, 5.88, 7.42, 8.96, 10.15, and 11.92, respectively.
Tropical cyclones are one of the most powerful and destructive natural phenomena on earth. Tropical storms and heavy rains can cause floods, which lead to human lives and economic loss. Devastating winds accompanying cyclones heavily affect not only the coastal regions, even distant areas. Our study focuses on the intensity estimation, particularly cyclone grade and maximum sustained surface wind speed (MSWS) of a tropical cyclone over the North Indian Ocean. We use various machine learning algorithms to estimate cyclone grade and MSWS. We have used the basin of origin, date, time, latitude, longitude, estimated central pressure, and pressure drop as attributes of our models. We use multi-class classification models for the categorical outcome variable, cyclone grade, and regression models for MSWS as it is a continuous variable. Using the best track data of 28 years over the North Indian Ocean, we estimate grade with an accuracy of 88% and MSWS with a root mean square error (RMSE) of 2.3. For higher grade categories (5-7), accuracy improves to an average of 98.84%. We tested our model with two recent tropical cyclones in the North Indian Ocean, Vayu and Fani. For grade, we obtained an accuracy of 93.22% and 95.23% respectively, while for MSWS, we obtained RMSE of 2.2 and 3.4 and $R^2$ of 0.99 and 0.99, respectively.
Our collective understanding of azimuthally-asymmetric features within the coherent structure of a tropical cyclone (TC) continues to improve with the availability of more detailed observations and high-resolution model outputs. However, a precise understanding of how these asymmetries impact TC intensity changes is lacking. Prior attempts at investigating the asymmetric impacts follow a mean-eddy partitioning that condenses the effect of all the asymmetries into one term and fails to highlight the differences in the role of asymmetries at different scales. In this study, we present a novel energetics-based approach to analyze the asymmetric impacts at multiple length-scales during periods of TC rapid intensity changes. Using model outputs of TCs under low and high shear, we compute the different energy pathways that enhance/suppress the growth of multi-scale asymmetries in the wavenumber (WN) domain. We then compare and contrast the energetics of the mean flow field (WN 0) with that of the persistent, coherent vortex-scale asymmetric structures (WNs 1,2) and the more local, transient, sub-vortex-scale asymmetries (WNs $geq$ 3). We find in our case-studies that the dominant mechanisms of growth/decay of the asymmetries are the baroclinic conversion from available potential to kinetic energy at individual scales of asymmetries, and the transactions of kinetic energy between the asymmetries of various length-scales; rather than the barotropic mean-eddy transactions as is typically assumed. Our case-study analysis further shows that the growth/decay of asymmetries is largely independent of the mean. Certain aspects of eddy energetics can potentially serve as early-warning indicators of TC rapid intensity changes.
suggested questions
Log in to be able to interact and post comments
comments
Fetching comments
Sign in to be able to follow your search criteria
