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Register a new userHigh-Confidence Off-Policy (or Counterfactual) Variance Estimation
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Added by
Yash Chandak
Publication date
2021
fields
Informatics Engineering
and research's language is
English
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Many sequential decision-making systems leverage data collected using prior policies to propose a new policy. For critical applications, it is important that high-confidence guarantees on the new policys behavior are provided before deployment, to ensure that the policy will behave as desired. Prior works have studied high-confidence off-policy estimation of the expected return, however, high-confidence off-policy estimation of the variance of returns can be equally critical for high-risk applications. In this paper, we tackle the previously open problem of estimating and bounding, with high confidence, the variance of returns from off-policy data
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We study high-confidence behavior-agnostic off-policy evaluation in reinforcement learning, where the goal is to estimate a confidence interval on a target policys value, given only access to a static experience dataset collected by unknown behavior policies. Starting from a function space embedding of the linear program formulation of the $Q$-function, we obtain an optimization problem with generalized estimating equation constraints. By applying the generalized empirical likelihood method to the resulting Lagrangian, we propose CoinDICE, a novel and efficient algorithm for computing confidence intervals. Theoretically, we prove the obtained confidence intervals are valid, in both asymptotic and finite-sample regimes. Empirically, we show in a variety of benchmarks that the confidence interval estimates are tighter and more accurate than existing methods.
We develop confidence bounds that hold uniformly over time for off-policy evaluation in the contextual bandit setting. These confidence sequences are based on recent ideas from martingale analysis and are non-asymptotic, non-parametric, and valid at arbitrary stopping times. We provide algorithms for computing these confidence sequences that strike a good balance between computational and statistical efficiency. We empirically demonstrate the tightness of our approach in terms of failure probability and width and apply it to the gated deployment problem of safely upgrading a production contextual bandit system.
Off-policy policy optimization is a challenging problem in reinforcement learning (RL). The algorithms designed for this problem often suffer from high variance in their estimators, which results in poor sample efficiency, and have issues with convergence. A few variance-reduced on-policy policy gradient algorithms have been recently proposed that use methods from stochastic optimization to reduce the variance of the gradient estimate in the REINFORCE algorithm. However, these algorithms are not designed for the off-policy setting and are memory-inefficient, since they need to collect and store a large ``reference batch of samples from time to time. To achieve variance-reduced off-policy-stable policy optimization, we propose an algorithm family that is memory-efficient, stochastically variance-reduced, and capable of learning from off-policy samples. Empirical studies validate the effectiveness of the proposed approaches.
Reinforcement learning algorithms are typically geared towards optimizing the expected return of an agent. However, in many practical applications, low variance in the return is desired to ensure the reliability of an algorithm. In this paper, we propose on-policy and off-policy actor-critic algorithms that optimize a performance criterion involving both mean and variance in the return. Previous work uses the second moment of return to estimate the variance indirectly. Instead, we use a much simpler recently proposed direct variance estimator which updates the estimates incrementally using temporal difference methods. Using the variance-penalized criterion, we guarantee the convergence of our algorithm to locally optimal policies for finite state action Markov decision processes. We demonstrate the utility of our algorithm in tabular and continuous MuJoCo domains. Our approach not only performs on par with actor-critic and prior variance-penalization baselines in terms of expected return, but also generates trajectories which have lower variance in the return.
In this work, we consider the problem of estimating a behaviour policy for use in Off-Policy Policy Evaluation (OPE) when the true behaviour policy is unknown. Via a series of empirical studies, we demonstrate how accurate OPE is strongly dependent on the calibration of estimated behaviour policy models: how precisely the behaviour policy is estimated from data. We show how powerful parametric models such as neural networks can result in highly uncalibrated behaviour policy models on a real-world medical dataset, and illustrate how a simple, non-parametric, k-nearest neighbours model produces better calibrated behaviour policy estimates and can be used to obtain superior importance sampling-based OPE estimates.
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