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Register a new userOff-policy Confidence Sequences
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Added by
Nikos Karampatziakis
Publication date
2021
fields
Informatics Engineering
and research's language is
English
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We develop confidence bounds that hold uniformly over time for off-policy evaluation in the contextual bandit setting. These confidence sequences are based on recent ideas from martingale analysis and are non-asymptotic, non-parametric, and valid at arbitrary stopping times. We provide algorithms for computing these confidence sequences that strike a good balance between computational and statistical efficiency. We empirically demonstrate the tightness of our approach in terms of failure probability and width and apply it to the gated deployment problem of safely upgrading a production contextual bandit system.
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We study high-confidence behavior-agnostic off-policy evaluation in reinforcement learning, where the goal is to estimate a confidence interval on a target policys value, given only access to a static experience dataset collected by unknown behavior policies. Starting from a function space embedding of the linear program formulation of the $Q$-function, we obtain an optimization problem with generalized estimating equation constraints. By applying the generalized empirical likelihood method to the resulting Lagrangian, we propose CoinDICE, a novel and efficient algorithm for computing confidence intervals. Theoretically, we prove the obtained confidence intervals are valid, in both asymptotic and finite-sample regimes. Empirically, we show in a variety of benchmarks that the confidence interval estimates are tighter and more accurate than existing methods.
Many sequential decision-making systems leverage data collected using prior policies to propose a new policy. For critical applications, it is important that high-confidence guarantees on the new policys behavior are provided before deployment, to ensure that the policy will behave as desired. Prior works have studied high-confidence off-policy estimation of the expected return, however, high-confidence off-policy estimation of the variance of returns can be equally critical for high-risk applications. In this paper, we tackle the previously open problem of estimating and bounding, with high confidence, the variance of returns from off-policy data
Due to the recent advancements in wearables and sensing technology, health scientists are increasingly developing mobile health (mHealth) interventions. In mHealth interventions, mobile devices are used to deliver treatment to individuals as they go about their daily lives. These treatments are generally designed to impact a near time, proximal outcome such as stress or physical activity. The mHealth intervention policies, often called just-in-time adaptive interventions, are decision rules that map an individuals current state (e.g., individuals past behaviors as well as current observations of time, location, social activity, stress and urges to smoke) to a particular treatment at each of many time points. The vast majority of current mHealth interventions deploy expert-derived policies. In this paper, we provide an approach for conducting inference about the performance of one or more such policies using historical data collected under a possibly different policy. Our measure of performance is the average of proximal outcomes over a long time period should the particular mHealth policy be followed. We provide an estimator as well as confidence intervals. This work is motivated by HeartSteps, an mHealth physical activity intervention.
Multi-agent policy gradient (MAPG) methods recently witness vigorous progress. However, there is a significant performance discrepancy between MAPG methods and state-of-the-art multi-agent value-based approaches. In this paper, we investigate causes that hinder the performance of MAPG algorithms and present a multi-agent decomposed policy gradient method (DOP). This method introduces the idea of value function decomposition into the multi-agent actor-critic framework. Based on this idea, DOP supports efficient off-policy learning and addresses the issue of centralized-decentralized mismatch and credit assignment in both discrete and continuous action spaces. We formally show that DOP critics have sufficient representational capability to guarantee convergence. In addition, empirical evaluations on the StarCraft II micromanagement benchmark and multi-agent particle environments demonstrate that DOP significantly outperforms both state-of-the-art value-based and policy-based multi-agent reinforcement learning algorithms. Demonstrative videos are available at https://sites.google.com/view/dop-mapg/.
This paper investigates the problem of online prediction learning, where learning proceeds continuously as the agent interacts with an environment. The predictions made by the agent are contingent on a particular way of behaving, represented as a value function. However, the behavior used to select actions and generate the behavior data might be different from the one used to define the predictions, and thus the samples are generated off-policy. The ability to learn behavior-contingent predictions online and off-policy has long been advocated as a key capability of predictive-knowledge learning systems but remained an open algorithmic challenge for decades. The issue lies with the temporal difference (TD) learning update at the heart of most prediction algorithms: combining bootstrapping, off-policy sampling and function approximation may cause the value estimate to diverge. A breakthrough came with the development of a new objective function that admitted stochastic gradient descent variants of TD. Since then, many sound online off-policy prediction algorithms have been developed, but there has been limited empirical work investigating the relative merits of all the variants. This paper aims to fill these empirical gaps and provide clarity on the key ideas behind each method. We summarize the large body of literature on off-policy learning, focusing on 1- methods that use computation linear in the number of features and are convergent under off-policy sampling, and 2- other methods which have proven useful with non-fixed, nonlinear function approximation. We provide an empirical study of off-policy prediction methods in two challenging microworlds. We report each methods parameter sensitivity, empirical convergence rate, and final performance, providing new insights that should enable practitioners to successfully extend these new methods to large-scale applications.[Abridged abstract]
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