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Register a new userBitcoin Trading is Irrational! An Analysis of the Disposition Effect in Bitcoin
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Investors tend to sell their winning investments and hold onto their losers. This phenomenon, known as the emph{disposition effect} in the field of behavioural finance, is well-known and its prevalence has been shown in a number of existing markets. But what about new atypical markets like cryptocurrencies? Do investors act as irrationally as in traditional markets? One might suspect this and hypothesise that cryptocurrency sells occur more frequently in positive market conditions and less frequently in negative market conditions. However, there is still no empirical evidence to support this. In this paper, we expand on existing research and empirically investigate the prevalence of the disposition effect in Bitcoin by testing this hypothesis. Our results show that investors are indeed subject to the disposition effect, tending to sell their winning positions too soon and holding on to their losing position for too long. This effect is very prominently evident from the boom and bust year 2017 onwards, confirmed via most of the applied technical indicators. In this study, we show that Bitcoin traders act just as irrationally as traders in other, more established markets.
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Bitcoin is a peer-to-peer electronic payment system that popularized rapidly in recent years. Usually, we need to query the complete history of Bitcoin blockchain data to acquire variables with economic meaning. This becomes increasingly difficult now with over 1.6 billion historical transactions on the Bitcoin blockchain. It is thus important to query Bitcoin transaction data in a way that is more efficient and provides economic insights. We apply cohort analysis that interprets Bitcoin blockchain data using methods developed for population data in social science. Specifically, we query and process the Bitcoin transaction input and output data within each daily cohort, which enables us to create datasets and visualizations for some key indicators of Bitcoin transactions, including the daily lifespan distributions of spent transaction output (STXO) and the daily age distributions of the accumulated unspent transaction output (UTXO). We provide a computationally feasible approach to characterize Bitcoin transactions, which paves the way for the future economic studies of Bitcoin.
We survey recent results on the mathematical stability of Bitcoin protocol. Profitability and probability of a double spend are estimated in closed form with classical special functions. The stability of Bitcoin mining rules is analyzed and several theorems are proved using martingale and combinatorics techniques. In particular, the empirical observation of the stability of the Bitcoin protocol is proved. This survey article on the mathematics of Bitcoin is published by the Newsletter of the European Mathematical Society, vol.115, 2020, p.31-37. Continuation of arXiv:1601.05254 (EMS Newsletter, 100, 2016 p.32).
Bitcoin has become the leading cryptocurrency system, but the limit on its transaction processing capacity has resulted in increased transaction fees and delayed transaction confirmation. As such, it is pertinent to understand and probably predict how transactions are handled by Bitcoin such that a user may adapt the transaction requests and a miner may adjust the block generation strategy and/or the mining pool to join. To this aim, the present paper introduces results from an analysis of transaction handling in Bitcoin. Specifically, the analysis consists of two-part. The first part is an exploratory data analysis revealing key characteristics in Bitcoin transaction handling. The second part is a predictability analysis intended to provide insights on transaction handling such as (i) transaction confirmation time, (ii) block attributes, and (iii) who has created the block. The result shows that some models do reasonably well for (ii), but surprisingly not for (i) or (iii).
Background: During the last years, there has been a lot of discussion and estimations on the energy consumption of Bitcoin miners. However, most of the studies are focused on estimating energy consumption, not in exploring the factors that determine it. Goal: To explore the factors that determine maximum energy consumption of Bitcoin miners. In particular, analyze the limits of energy consumption, and to which extent variations of the factors could produce its reduction. Method: Estimate the overall profit of all Bitcoin miners during a certain period of time, and the costs (including energy) that they face during that time, because of the mining activity. The underlying assumptions is that miners will only consume energy to mine Bitcoin if they have the expectation of profit, and at the same time they are competitive with respect of each other. Therefore, they will operate as a group in the point where profits balance expenditures. Results: We show a basic equation that determines energy consumption based on some specific factors: minting, transaction fees, exchange rate, energy price, and amortization cost. We also define the Amortization Factor, which can be computed for mining devices based on their cost and energy consumption, helps to understand how the cost of equipment influences total energy consumption. Conclusions: The factors driving energy consumption are identified, and from them, some ways in which Bitcoin energy consumption could be reduced are discussed. Some of these ways do not reduce the most important properties of Bitcoin, such as the chances of control of the aggregated hashpower, or the fundamentals of the proof of work mechanism. In general, the methods presented can help to predict energy consumption in different scenarios, based on factors that can be calculated from available data, or assumed in scenarios.
The Bitcoin protocol prescribes certain behavior by the miners who are responsible for maintaining and extending the underlying blockchain; in particular, miners who successfully solve a puzzle, and hence can extend the chain by a block, are supposed to release that block immediately. Eyal and Sirer showed, however, that a selfish miner is incentivized to deviate from the protocol and withhold its blocks under certain conditions. The analysis by Eyal and Sirer, as well as in followup work, considers a emph{single} deviating miner (who may control a large fraction of the hashing power in the network) interacting with a remaining pool of honest miners. Here, we extend this analysis to the case where there are emph{multiple} (non-colluding) selfish miners. We find that with multiple strategic miners, specific deviations from honest mining by multiple strategic agents can outperform honest mining, even if individually miners would not be incentivised to be dishonest. This previous point effectively renders the Bitcoin protocol to be less secure than previously thought.
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