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Register a new userDrift Estimation of Multiscale Diffusions Based on Filtered Data
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Added by
Giacomo Garegnani
Publication date
2020
fields
Informatics Engineering
and research's language is
English
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We study the problem of drift estimation for two-scale continuous time series. We set ourselves in the framework of overdamped Langevin equations, for which a single-scale surrogate homogenized equation exists. In this setting, estimating the drift coefficient of the homogenized equation requires pre-processing of the data, often in the form of subsampling; this is because the two-scale equation and the homogenized single-scale equation are incompatible at small scales, generating mutually singular measures on the path space. We avoid subsampling and work instead with filtered data, found by application of an appropriate kernel function, and compute maximum likelihood estimators based on the filtered process. We show that the estimators we propose are asymptotically unbiased and demonstrate numerically the advantages of our method with respect to subsampling. Finally, we show how our filtered data methodology can be combined with Bayesian techniques and provide a full uncertainty quantification of the inference procedure.
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We propose a novel method for drift estimation of multiscale diffusion processes when a sequence of discrete observations is given. For the Langevin dynamics in a two-scale potential, our approach relies on the eigenvalues and the eigenfunctions of the homogenized dynamics. Our first estimator is derived from a martingale estimating function of the generator of the homogenized diffusion process. However, the unbiasedness of the estimator depends on the rate with which the observations are sampled. We therefore introduce a second estimator which relies also on filtering the data and we prove that it is asymptotically unbiased independently of the sampling rate. A series of numerical experiments illustrate the reliability and efficiency of our different estimators.
We present a methodology based on filtered data and moving averages for estimating robustly effective dynamics from observations of multiscale systems. We show in a semi-parametric framework of the Langevin type that the method we propose is asymptotically unbiased with respect to homogenization theory. Moreover, we demonstrate with a series of numerical experiments that the method we propose here outperforms traditional techniques for extracting coarse-grained dynamics from data, such as subsampling, in terms of bias and of robustness.
We consider the problem of statistical inference for the effective dynamics of multiscale diffusion processes with (at least) two widely separated characteristic time scales. More precisely, we seek to determine parameters in the effective equation describing the dynamics on the longer diffusive time scale, i.e. in a homogenization framework. We examine the case where both the drift and the diffusion coefficients in the effective dynamics are space-dependent and depend on multiple unknown parameters. It is known that classical estimators, such as Maximum Likelihood and Quadratic Variation of the Path Estimators, fail to obtain reasonable estimates for parameters in the effective dynamics when based on observations of the underlying multiscale diffusion. We propose a novel algorithm for estimating both the drift and diffusion coefficients in the effective dynamics based on a semi-parametric framework. We demonstrate by means of extensive numerical simulations of a number of selected examples that the algorithm performs well when applied to data from a multiscale diffusion. These examples also illustrate that the algorithm can be used effectively to obtain accurate and unbiased estimates.
Reduced model spaces, such as reduced basis and polynomial chaos, are linear spaces $V_n$ of finite dimension $n$ which are designed for the efficient approximation of families parametrized PDEs in a Hilbert space $V$. The manifold $mathcal{M}$ that gathers the solutions of the PDE for all admissible parameter values is globally approximated by the space $V_n$ with some controlled accuracy $epsilon_n$, which is typically much smaller than when using standard approximation spaces of the same dimension such as finite elements. Reduced model spaces have also been proposed in [13] as a vehicle to design a simple linear recovery algorithm of the state $uinmathcal{M}$ corresponding to a particular solution when the values of parameters are unknown but a set of data is given by $m$ linear measurements of the state. The measurements are of the form $ell_j(u)$, $j=1,dots,m$, where the $ell_j$ are linear functionals on $V$. The analysis of this approach in [2] shows that the recovery error is bounded by $mu_nepsilon_n$, where $mu_n=mu(V_n,W)$ is the inverse of an inf-sup constant that describe the angle between $V_n$ and the space $W$ spanned by the Riesz representers of $(ell_1,dots,ell_m)$. A reduced model space which is efficient for approximation might thus be ineffective for recovery if $mu_n$ is large or infinite. In this paper, we discuss the existence and construction of an optimal reduced model space for this recovery method, and we extend our search to affine spaces. Our basic observation is that this problem is equivalent to the search of an optimal affine algorithm for the recovery of $mathcal{M}$ in the worst case error sense. This allows us to perform our search by a convex optimization procedure. Numerical tests illustrate that the reduced model spaces constructed from our approach perform better than the classical reduced basis spaces.
There is an intimate connection between numerical upscaling of multiscale PDEs and scattered data approximation of heterogeneous functions: the coarse variables selected for deriving an upscaled equation (in the former) correspond to the sampled information used for approximation (in the latter). As such, both problems can be thought of as recovering a target function based on some coarse data that are either artificially chosen by an upscaling algorithm, or determined by some physical measurement process. The purpose of this paper is then to study that, under such a setup and for a specific elliptic problem, how the lengthscale of the coarse data, which we refer to as the subsampled lengthscale, influences the accuracy of recovery, given limited computational budgets. Our analysis and experiments identify that, reducing the subsampling lengthscale may improve the accuracy, implying a guiding criterion for coarse-graining or data acquisition in this computationally constrained scenario, especially leading to direct insights for the implementation of the Gamblets method in the numerical homogenization literature. Moreover, reducing the lengthscale to zero may lead to a blow-up of approximation error if the target function does not have enough regularity, suggesting the need for a stronger prior assumption on the target function to be approximated. We introduce a singular weight function to deal with it, both theoretically and numerically. This work sheds light on the interplay of the lengthscale of coarse data, the computational costs, the regularity of the target function, and the accuracy of approximations and numerical simulations.
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