No Arabic abstract
The estimation of causal effects is a primary goal of behavioral, social, economic and biomedical sciences. Under the unconfounded treatment assignment condition, adjustment for confounders requires estimating the nuisance functions relating outcome and/or treatment to confounders. The conventional approaches rely on either a parametric or a nonparametric modeling strategy to approximate the nuisance functions. Parametric methods can introduce serious bias into casual effect estimation due to possible mis-specification, while nonparametric estimation suffers from the curse of dimensionality. This paper proposes a new unified approach for efficient estimation of treatment effects using feedforward artificial neural networks when the number of covariates is allowed to increase with the sample size. We consider a general optimization framework that includes the average, quantile and asymmetric least squares treatment effects as special cases. Under this unified setup, we develop a generalized optimization estimator for the treatment effect with the nuisance function estimated by neural networks. We further establish the consistency and asymptotic normality of the proposed estimator and show that it attains the semiparametric efficiency bound. The proposed methods are illustrated via simulation studies and a real data application.
Estimation of heterogeneous treatment effects is an essential component of precision medicine. Model and algorithm-based methods have been developed within the causal inference framework to achieve valid estimation and inference. Existing methods such as the A-learner, R-learner, modified covariates method (with and without efficiency augmentation), inverse propensity score weighting, and augmented inverse propensity score weighting have been proposed mostly under the square error loss function. The performance of these methods in the presence of data irregularity and high dimensionality, such as that encountered in electronic health record (EHR) data analysis, has been less studied. In this research, we describe a general formulation that unifies many of the existing learners through a common score function. The new formulation allows the incorporation of least absolute deviation (LAD) regression and dimension reduction techniques to counter the challenges in EHR data analysis. We show that under a set of mild regularity conditions, the resultant estimator has an asymptotic normal distribution. Within this framework, we proposed two specific estimators for EHR analysis based on weighted LAD with penalties for sparsity and smoothness simultaneously. Our simulation studies show that the proposed methods are more robust to outliers under various circumstances. We use these methods to assess the blood pressure-lowering effects of two commonly used antihypertensive therapies.
The empirical literature on program evaluation limits its scope almost exclusively to models where treatment effects are homogenous for observationally identical individuals. This paper considers a treatment effect model in which treatment effects may be heterogeneous, even among observationally identical individuals. Specifically, extending the classical instrumental variables (IV) model with an endogenous binary treatment and a binary instrument, we allow the heteroskedasticity of the error disturbance to also depend upon the treatment variable so that treatment has both mean and variance effects on the outcome. In this endogenous heteroskedasticity IV (EHIV) model with heterogeneous individual treatment effects, the standard IV estimator can be inconsistent and lead to incorrect inference. After showing identification of the mean and variance treatment effects in a nonparametric version of the EHIV model, we provide closed-form estimators for the linear EHIV for the mean and variance treatment effects and the individual treatment effects (ITE). Asymptotic properties of the estimators are provided. A Monte Carlo simulation investigates the performance of the proposed approach, and an empirical application regarding the effects of fertility on female labor supply is considered.
We develop new semiparametric methods for estimating treatment effects. We focus on a setting where the outcome distributions may be thick tailed, where treatment effects are small, where sample sizes are large and where assignment is completely random. This setting is of particular interest in recent experimentation in tech companies. We propose using parametric models for the treatment effects, as opposed to parametric models for the full outcome distributions. This leads to semiparametric models for the outcome distributions. We derive the semiparametric efficiency bound for this setting, and propose efficient estimators. In the case with a constant treatment effect one of the proposed estimators has an interesting interpretation as a weighted average of quantile treatment effects, with the weights proportional to (minus) the second derivative of the log of the density of the potential outcomes. Our analysis also results in an extension of Hubers model and trimmed mean to include asymmetry and a simplified condition on linear combinations of order statistics, which may be of independent interest.
In observational studies, balancing covariates in different treatment groups is essential to estimate treatment effects. One of the most commonly used methods for such purposes is weighting. The performance of this class of methods usually depends on strong regularity conditions for the underlying model, which might not hold in practice. In this paper, we investigate weighting methods from a functional estimation perspective and argue that the weights needed for covariate balancing could differ from those needed for treatment effects estimation under low regularity conditions. Motivated by this observation, we introduce a new framework of weighting that directly targets the treatment effects estimation. Unlike existing methods, the resulting estimator for a treatment effect under this new framework is a simple kernel-based $U$-statistic after applying a data-driven transformation to the observed covariates. We characterize the theoretical properties of the new estimators of treatment effects under a nonparametric setting and show that they are able to work robustly under low regularity conditions. The new framework is also applied to several numerical examples to demonstrate its practical merits.
We propose to use deep learning to estimate parameters in statistical models when standard likelihood estimation methods are computationally infeasible. We show how to estimate parameters from max-stable processes, where inference is exceptionally challenging even with small datasets but simulation is straightforward. We use data from model simulations as input and train deep neural networks to learn statistical parameters. Our neural-network-based method provides a competitive alternative to current approaches, as demonstrated by considerable accuracy and computational time improvements. It serves as a proof of concept for deep learning in statistical parameter estimation and can be extended to other estimation problems.