No Arabic abstract
In observational studies, balancing covariates in different treatment groups is essential to estimate treatment effects. One of the most commonly used methods for such purposes is weighting. The performance of this class of methods usually depends on strong regularity conditions for the underlying model, which might not hold in practice. In this paper, we investigate weighting methods from a functional estimation perspective and argue that the weights needed for covariate balancing could differ from those needed for treatment effects estimation under low regularity conditions. Motivated by this observation, we introduce a new framework of weighting that directly targets the treatment effects estimation. Unlike existing methods, the resulting estimator for a treatment effect under this new framework is a simple kernel-based $U$-statistic after applying a data-driven transformation to the observed covariates. We characterize the theoretical properties of the new estimators of treatment effects under a nonparametric setting and show that they are able to work robustly under low regularity conditions. The new framework is also applied to several numerical examples to demonstrate its practical merits.
Consider the problem of estimating the local average treatment effect with an instrument variable, where the instrument unconfoundedness holds after adjusting for a set of measured covariates. Several unknown functions of the covariates need to be estimated through regression models, such as instrument propensity score and treatment and outcome regression models. We develop a computationally tractable method in high-dimensional settings where the numbers of regression terms are close to or larger than the sample size. Our method exploits regularized calibrated estimation, which involves Lasso penalties but carefully chosen loss functions for estimating coefficient vectors in these regression models, and then employs a doubly robust estimator for the treatment parameter through augmented inverse probability weighting. We provide rigorous theoretical analysis to show that the resulting Wald confidence intervals are valid for the treatment parameter under suitable sparsity conditions if the instrument propensity score model is correctly specified, but the treatment and outcome regression models may be misspecified. For existing high-dimensional methods, valid confidence intervals are obtained for the treatment parameter if all three models are correctly specified. We evaluate the proposed methods via extensive simulation studies and an empirical application to estimate the returns to education.
Causal effect sizes may vary among individuals and they can even be of opposite directions. When there exists serious effect heterogeneity, the population average causal effect (ACE) is not very informative. It is well-known that individual causal effects (ICEs) cannot be determined in cross-sectional studies, but we will show that ICEs can be retrieved from longitudinal data under certain conditions. We will present a general framework for individual causality where we will view effect heterogeneity as an individual-specific effect modification that can be parameterized with a latent variable, the receptiveness factor. The distribution of the receptiveness factor can be retrieved, and it will enable us to study the contrast of the potential outcomes of an individual under stationarity assumptions. Within the framework, we will study the joint distribution of the individuals potential outcomes conditioned on all individuals factual data and subsequently the distribution of the cross-world causal effect (CWCE). We discuss conditions such that the latter converges to a degenerated distribution, in which case the ICE can be estimated consistently. To demonstrate the use of this general framework, we present examples in which the outcome process can be parameterized as a (generalized) linear mixed model.
Randomization (a.k.a. permutation) inference is typically interpreted as testing Fishers sharp null hypothesis that all effects are exactly zero. This hypothesis is often criticized as uninteresting and implausible. We show, however, that many randomization tests are also valid for a bounded null hypothesis under which effects are all negative (or positive) for all units but otherwise heterogeneous. The bounded null is closely related to important concepts such as monotonicity and Pareto efficiency. Inverting tests of this hypothesis yields confidence intervals for the maximum (or minimum) individual treatment effect. We then extend randomization tests to infer other quantiles of individual effects, which can be used to infer the proportion of units with effects larger (or smaller) than any threshold. The proposed confidence intervals for all quantiles of individual effects are simultaneously valid, in the sense that no correction due to multiple analyses is needed. In sum, we provide a broader justification for Fisher randomization tests, and develop exact nonparametric inference for quantiles of heterogeneous individual effects. We illustrate our methods with simulations and applications, where we find that Stephenson rank statistics often provide the most informative results.
We extend balloon and sample-smoothing estimators, two types of variable-bandwidth kernel density estimators, by a shift parameter and derive their asymptotic properties. Our approach facilitates the unified study of a wide range of density estimators which are subsumed under these two general classes of kernel density estimators. We demonstrate our method by deriving the asymptotic bias, variance, and mean (integrated) squared error of density estimators with gamma, log-normal, Birnbaum-Saunders, inverse Gaussian and reciprocal inverse Gaussian kernels. We propose two new density estimators for positive random variables that yield properly-normalised density estimates. Plugin expressions for bandwidth estimation are provided to facilitate easy exploratory data analysis.
The empirical literature on program evaluation limits its scope almost exclusively to models where treatment effects are homogenous for observationally identical individuals. This paper considers a treatment effect model in which treatment effects may be heterogeneous, even among observationally identical individuals. Specifically, extending the classical instrumental variables (IV) model with an endogenous binary treatment and a binary instrument, we allow the heteroskedasticity of the error disturbance to also depend upon the treatment variable so that treatment has both mean and variance effects on the outcome. In this endogenous heteroskedasticity IV (EHIV) model with heterogeneous individual treatment effects, the standard IV estimator can be inconsistent and lead to incorrect inference. After showing identification of the mean and variance treatment effects in a nonparametric version of the EHIV model, we provide closed-form estimators for the linear EHIV for the mean and variance treatment effects and the individual treatment effects (ITE). Asymptotic properties of the estimators are provided. A Monte Carlo simulation investigates the performance of the proposed approach, and an empirical application regarding the effects of fertility on female labor supply is considered.