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Register a new userNon-detection of O$_2$/O$_3$ informs frequency of Earth-like planets with LUVOIR but not HabEx
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A critical question in the search for extraterrestrial life is whether exoEarths are Earth-like, in that they host life that progressively oxygenates their atmospheres roughly following Earths oxygenation history. This question could be answered statistically by searching for O$_2$ and O$_3$ on exoEarths detected by HabEx or LUVOIR. The point of this paper is to compare the ability of HabEx and LUVOIR to prevent a false negative answer to this question, in which we do not detect O$_2$ or O$_3$ on any planet even if all exoEarths are Earth-like. Our approach is to assign O$_2$ and O$_3$ values drawn from Earths history to a distribution of detectable exoEarths and determine whether O$_2$ and O$_3$ would be detectable using the Planetary Spectrum Generator. We find that if exoEarths tend to be Earth-like, we expect to detect O$_3$ with a LUVOIR-sized instrument. We also find that LUVOIR is unlikely to have a false negative scenario in the context of searching for Earth-like life on its targeted exoEarths. Because of that, if LUVOIR does not detect O$_2$ or O$_3$ on any exoEarths, we will be able to constrain the maximum number of exoEarths that could be Earth-like. In contrast, we find that even if all exoEarths are Earth-like, HabEx has up to a 22% chance of not detecting O$_2$ or O$_3$ on any of them. This is because HabEx will detect less planets and cannot reliably detect O$_2$ and O$_3$ at all potential Proterozoic levels. This is a strong argument for building a larger telescope such as LUVOIR if we want to determine whether exoEarths tend to be Earth-like.
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A critical question in astrobiology is whether exoEarth candidates (EECs) are Earth-like, in that they originate life that progressively oxygenates their atmospheres similarly to Earth. We propose answering this question statistically by searching for O2 and O3 on EECs with missions such as HabEx or LUVOIR. We explore the ability of these missions to constrain the fraction, fE, of EECs that are Earth-like in the event of a null detection of O2 or O3 on all observed EECs. We use the Planetary Spectrum Generator to simulate observations of EECs with O2 and O3 levels based on Earths history. We consider four instrument designs: LUVOIR-A (15m), LUVOIR-B (8m), HabEx with a starshade (4m, HabEx/SS), HabEx without a starshade (4m, HabEx/no-SS); as well as three estimates of the occurrence rate of EECs (eta_earth): 24%, 5%, and 0.5%. In the case of a null-detection, we find that for eta_earth = 24%, LUVOIR-A, LUVOIR-B, and HabEx/SS would constrain fE to <= 0.094, <= 0.18, and <= 0.56, respectively. This also indicates that if fE is greater than these upper limits, we are likely to detect O3 on at least 1 EEC. Conversely, we find that HabEx/no-SS cannot constrain fE, due to the lack of an coronagraph ultraviolet channel. For eta_earth = 5%, only LUVOIR-A and LUVOIR-B would be able to constrain fE, to <= 0.45 and <= 0.85, respectively. For eta_earth = 0.5%, none of the missions would allow us to constrain fE, due to the low number of detectable EECs. We conclude that the ability to constrain fE is more robust to uncertainties in eta_earth for missions with larger aperture mirrors. However all missions are susceptible to an inconclusive null detection if eta_earth is sufficiently low.
The search for Earth-like planets around Sun-like stars and the evaluation of their occurrence rate is a major topic of research for the exoplanetary community. Two key characteristics in defining a planet as Earth-like are having a radius between 1 and 1.75 times the Earths radius and orbiting inside the host stars habitable zone; the measurement of the planets radius and related error is however possible only via transit observations and is highly dependent on the precision of the host stars radius. A major improvement in the determination of stellar radius is represented by the unprecedented precision on parallax measurements provided by the Gaia astrometry satellite. We present a new estimate of the frequency of Earth-sized planets orbiting inside the host starss habitable zones, obtained using Gaia measurements of parallax for solar-type stars hosting validated planets in the Kepler field as input for reassessing the values of planetary radius and incident stellar flux. This updated occurrence rate can usefully inform future observational efforts searching for Earth-like system in the Sun backyard using a variety of techniques such as the spectrograph ESPRESSO, the space observatory PLATO and the proposed astrometric satellite Theia.
Stellar activity produced by spots and plages affects the radial velocity (RV) signatures. Because even low activity stars would produce such a signal, it is crucial to determine how it influences our ability to detect small planetary signals such as those produced by Earth-mass planets in the habitable zone (HZ). In a recent paper, we investigated the impact of sunlike spots. We aim here to investigate the additional impact of plages. We used the spot and plage properties over a solar cycle to derive the RV that would be observed if the Sun was seen edge-on. The RV signal comes from the photometric contribution of spots and plages and from the attenuation of the convective blueshift in plages. We compared the RV signal with the signal that would be produced by an Earth-mass planet in the HZ. We find that the photometric contributions of spots and plages to the RV signal partially balance each other out, so that the residual signal is comparable to the spot signal. However, the plage contribution due to the convective blueshift attenuation dominates the total signal, with an amplitude over the solar cycle of about 8-10 m/s. This contribution is very strongly correlated with the Ca index on the long term, which may be a way to distinguish between stellar activity and a planet. Providing a very good temporal sampling and signal-to-noise ratio, the photometric contribution of plages and spots should not prevent detection of Earth-mass planets in the HZ. However, the convection contribution makes such a direct detection impossible, unless its effect can be corrected for by methods that still need to be found. We show that it is possible to identify the convection contribution if the sensitivity is good enough, for example, by using activity indicators.
The carbon-silicate cycle regulates the atmospheric $CO_2$ content of terrestrial planets on geological timescales through a balance between the rates of $CO_2$ volcanic outgassing and planetary intake from rock weathering. It is thought to act as an efficient climatic thermostat on Earth and, by extension, on other habitable planets. If, however, the weathering rate increases with the atmospheric $CO_2$ content, as expected on planets lacking land vascular plants, the carbon-silicate cycle feedback can become severely limited. Here we show that Earth-like planets receiving less sunlight than current Earth may no longer possess a stable warm climate but instead repeatedly cycle between unstable glaciated and deglaciated climatic states. This has implications for the search for life on exoplanets in the habitable zone of nearby stars.
Transmission spectroscopy of Earth-like exoplanets is a potential tool for habitability screening. Transiting planets are present-day Rosetta Stones for understanding extrasolar planets because they offer the possibility to characterize giant planet atmospheres and should provide an access to biomarkers in the atmospheres of Earth-like exoplanets, once they are detected. Using the Earth itself as a proxy we show the potential and limits of the transiting technique to detect biomarkers on an Earth-analog exoplanet in transit. We quantify the Earths cross section as a function of wavelength, and show the effect of each atmospheric species, aerosol, and Rayleigh scattering. Clouds do not significantly affect this picture because the opacity of the lower atmosphere from aerosol and Rayleigh losses dominates over cloud losses. We calculate the optimum signal-to-noise ratio for spectral features in the primary eclipse spectrum of an Earth-like exoplanet around a Sun-like star and also M stars, for a 6.5-m telescope in space. We find that the signal to noise values for all important spectral features are on the order of unity or less per transit - except for the closest stars - making it difficult to detect such features in one single transit, and implying that co-adding of many transits will be essential.
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