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Register a new userRevised estimates of the frequency of Earth-like planets in the Kepler field
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The search for Earth-like planets around Sun-like stars and the evaluation of their occurrence rate is a major topic of research for the exoplanetary community. Two key characteristics in defining a planet as Earth-like are having a radius between 1 and 1.75 times the Earths radius and orbiting inside the host stars habitable zone; the measurement of the planets radius and related error is however possible only via transit observations and is highly dependent on the precision of the host stars radius. A major improvement in the determination of stellar radius is represented by the unprecedented precision on parallax measurements provided by the Gaia astrometry satellite. We present a new estimate of the frequency of Earth-sized planets orbiting inside the host starss habitable zones, obtained using Gaia measurements of parallax for solar-type stars hosting validated planets in the Kepler field as input for reassessing the values of planetary radius and incident stellar flux. This updated occurrence rate can usefully inform future observational efforts searching for Earth-like system in the Sun backyard using a variety of techniques such as the spectrograph ESPRESSO, the space observatory PLATO and the proposed astrometric satellite Theia.
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Determining which small exoplanets have stony-iron compositions is necessary for quantifying the occurrence of such planets and for understanding the physics of planet formation. Kepler-10 hosts the stony-iron world Kepler-10b (K10b), and also contains what has been reported to be the largest solid silicate-ice planet, Kepler-10c (K10c). Using 220 radial velocities (RVs), including 72 precise RVs from Keck-HIRES of which 20 are new from 2014-2015, and 17 quarters of Kepler photometry, we obtain the most complete picture of the Kepler-10 system to date. We find that K10b (Rp=1.47 Re) has mass 3.72$pm$0.42 Me and density 6.46$pm$0.73 g/cc. Modeling the interior of K10b as an iron core overlaid with a silicate mantle, we find that the iron core constitutes 0.17$pm$0.11 of the planet mass. For K10c (Rp=2.35 Re) we measure Mp=13.98$pm$1.79 Me and $rho$=5.94$pm$0.76 g/cc, significantly lower than the mass computed in Dumusque et al. (2014, 17.2$pm$1.9 Me). Internal compositional modeling reveals that at least $10%$ of the radius of Kepler-10c is a volatile envelope composed of hydrogen-helium ($0.2%$ of the mass, $16%$ of the radius) or super-ionic water ($28%$ of the mass, $29%$ of the radius). Analysis of only HIRES data yields a higher mass for K10b and a lower mass for K10c than does analysis of the HARPS-N data alone, with the mass estimates for K10c formally inconsistent by 3$sigma$. Splitting the RVs from each instrument leads to inconsistent measurements for the mass of planet c in each data set. This suggests that time-correlated noise is present and that the uncertainties in the planet masses (especially K10c) exceed our formal estimates. Transit timing variations (TTVs) of K10c indicate the likely presence of a third planet in the system, KOI-72.X. The TTVs and RVs are consistent with KOI-72.X having an orbital period of 24, 71, or 101 days, and a mass from 1-7 Me.
In the search for life in the cosmos, NASAs Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite (TESS) mission has already monitored about 74% of the sky for transiting extrasolar planets, including potentially habitable worlds. However, TESS only observed a fraction of the stars long enough to be able to find planets like Earth. We use the primary mission data - the first two years of observations - and identify 4,239 stars within 210pc that TESS observed long enough to see 3 transits of an exoplanet that receives similar irradiation to Earth: 738 of these stars are located within 30pc. We provide reliable stellar parameters from the TESS Input Catalog that incorporates Gaia DR2 and also calculate the transit depth and radial velocity semi-amplitude for an Earth-analog planet. Of the 4,239 stars in the Revised TESS HZ Catalog, 9 are known exoplanet hosts - GJ 1061, GJ 1132, GJ 3512, GJ 685, Kepler-42, LHS 1815, L98-59, RR Cae, TOI 700 - around which TESS could identify additional Earth-like planetary companions. 37 additional stars host yet unconfirmed TESS Objects of Interest: three of these orbit in the habitable zone - TOI 203, TOI 715, and TOI 2298. For a subset of 614 of the 4,239 stars, TESS has observed the star long enough to be able to observe planets throughout the full temperate, habitable zone out to the equivalent of Mars orbit. Thus, the Revised TESS Habitable Zone Catalog provides a tool for observers to prioritize stars for follow-up observation to discover life in the cosmos. These stars are the best path towards the discovery of habitable planets using the TESS mission data.
We introduce a novel Earth-like planet surface temperature model (ESTM) for habitability studies based on the spatial-temporal distribution of planetary surface temperatures. The ESTM adopts a surface Energy Balance Model complemented by: radiative-convective atmospheric column calculations, a set of physically-based parameterizations of meridional transport, and descriptions of surface and cloud properties more refined than in standard EBMs. The parameterization is valid for rotating terrestrial planets with shallow atmospheres and moderate values of axis obliquity (epsilon >= 45^o). Comparison with a 3D model of atmospheric dynamics from the literature shows that the equator-to-pole temperature differences predicted by the two models agree within ~5K when the rotation rate, insolation, surface pressure and planet radius are varied in the intervals 0.5 <= Omega/Omega_o <= 2, 0.75 <= S/S_o <= 1.25, 0.3 <= p/(1 bar) <= 10, and 0.5 <= R/R_o <= 2, respectively. The ESTM has an extremely low computational cost and can be used when the planetary parameters are scarcely known (as for most exoplanets) and/or whenever many runs for different parameter configurations are needed. Model simulations of a test-case exoplanet (Kepler-62e) indicate that an uncertainty in surface pressure within the range expected for terrestrial planets may impact the mean temperature by ~60 K. Within the limits of validity of the ESTM, the impact of surface pressure is larger than that predicted by uncertainties in rotation rate, axis obliquity, and ocean fractions. We discuss the possibility of performing a statistical ranking of planetary habitability taking advantage of the flexibility of the ESTM.
A critical question in astrobiology is whether exoEarth candidates (EECs) are Earth-like, in that they originate life that progressively oxygenates their atmospheres similarly to Earth. We propose answering this question statistically by searching for O2 and O3 on EECs with missions such as HabEx or LUVOIR. We explore the ability of these missions to constrain the fraction, fE, of EECs that are Earth-like in the event of a null detection of O2 or O3 on all observed EECs. We use the Planetary Spectrum Generator to simulate observations of EECs with O2 and O3 levels based on Earths history. We consider four instrument designs: LUVOIR-A (15m), LUVOIR-B (8m), HabEx with a starshade (4m, HabEx/SS), HabEx without a starshade (4m, HabEx/no-SS); as well as three estimates of the occurrence rate of EECs (eta_earth): 24%, 5%, and 0.5%. In the case of a null-detection, we find that for eta_earth = 24%, LUVOIR-A, LUVOIR-B, and HabEx/SS would constrain fE to <= 0.094, <= 0.18, and <= 0.56, respectively. This also indicates that if fE is greater than these upper limits, we are likely to detect O3 on at least 1 EEC. Conversely, we find that HabEx/no-SS cannot constrain fE, due to the lack of an coronagraph ultraviolet channel. For eta_earth = 5%, only LUVOIR-A and LUVOIR-B would be able to constrain fE, to <= 0.45 and <= 0.85, respectively. For eta_earth = 0.5%, none of the missions would allow us to constrain fE, due to the low number of detectable EECs. We conclude that the ability to constrain fE is more robust to uncertainties in eta_earth for missions with larger aperture mirrors. However all missions are susceptible to an inconclusive null detection if eta_earth is sufficiently low.
The carbon-silicate cycle regulates the atmospheric $CO_2$ content of terrestrial planets on geological timescales through a balance between the rates of $CO_2$ volcanic outgassing and planetary intake from rock weathering. It is thought to act as an efficient climatic thermostat on Earth and, by extension, on other habitable planets. If, however, the weathering rate increases with the atmospheric $CO_2$ content, as expected on planets lacking land vascular plants, the carbon-silicate cycle feedback can become severely limited. Here we show that Earth-like planets receiving less sunlight than current Earth may no longer possess a stable warm climate but instead repeatedly cycle between unstable glaciated and deglaciated climatic states. This has implications for the search for life on exoplanets in the habitable zone of nearby stars.
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