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Register a new userProbing the capability of future direct imaging missions to spectrally constrain the frequency of Earth-like planets
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A critical question in astrobiology is whether exoEarth candidates (EECs) are Earth-like, in that they originate life that progressively oxygenates their atmospheres similarly to Earth. We propose answering this question statistically by searching for O2 and O3 on EECs with missions such as HabEx or LUVOIR. We explore the ability of these missions to constrain the fraction, fE, of EECs that are Earth-like in the event of a null detection of O2 or O3 on all observed EECs. We use the Planetary Spectrum Generator to simulate observations of EECs with O2 and O3 levels based on Earths history. We consider four instrument designs: LUVOIR-A (15m), LUVOIR-B (8m), HabEx with a starshade (4m, HabEx/SS), HabEx without a starshade (4m, HabEx/no-SS); as well as three estimates of the occurrence rate of EECs (eta_earth): 24%, 5%, and 0.5%. In the case of a null-detection, we find that for eta_earth = 24%, LUVOIR-A, LUVOIR-B, and HabEx/SS would constrain fE to <= 0.094, <= 0.18, and <= 0.56, respectively. This also indicates that if fE is greater than these upper limits, we are likely to detect O3 on at least 1 EEC. Conversely, we find that HabEx/no-SS cannot constrain fE, due to the lack of an coronagraph ultraviolet channel. For eta_earth = 5%, only LUVOIR-A and LUVOIR-B would be able to constrain fE, to <= 0.45 and <= 0.85, respectively. For eta_earth = 0.5%, none of the missions would allow us to constrain fE, due to the low number of detectable EECs. We conclude that the ability to constrain fE is more robust to uncertainties in eta_earth for missions with larger aperture mirrors. However all missions are susceptible to an inconclusive null detection if eta_earth is sufficiently low.
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In the near-future, atmospheric characterization of Earth-like planets in the habitable zone will become possible via reflectance spectroscopy with future telescopes such as the proposed LUVOIR and HabEx missions. While previous studies have considered the effect of clouds on the reflectance spectra of Earth-like planets, the molecular detectability considering a wide range of cloud properties has not been previously explored in detail. In this study, we explore the effect of cloud altitude and coverage on the reflectance spectra of Earth-like planets at different geological epochs and examine the detectability of $mathrm{O_2}$, $mathrm{H_2O}$, and $mathrm{CH_4}$ with test parameters for the future mission concept, LUVOIR, using a coronagraph noise simulator previously designed for WFIRST-AFTA. Considering an Earth-like planet located at 5 pc away, we have found that for the proposed LUVOIR telescope, the detection of the $mathrm{O_2}$ A-band feature (0.76 $mathrm{mu}$m) will take approximately 100, 30, and 10 hours for the majority of the cloud parameter space modeled for the atmospheres with 10%, 50%, and 100% of modern Earth O$_2$ abundances, respectively. Especially, for {the case of $gtrsim 50$%} of modern Earth O$_2$ abundance, the feature will be detectable with integration time $lesssim 10$ hours as long as there are lower altitude ($lesssim 8$ km) clouds with a global coverage of $gtrsim 20%$. For the 1% of modern Earth $mathrm{O_2}$ abundance case, however, it will take more than 100 hours for all the cloud parameters we modeled.
Ground-based telescopes coupled with adaptive optics (AO) have been playing a leading role in exoplanet direct imaging science and technological development for the past two decades and will continue to have an indispensable role for the next decade and beyond. Over the next decade, extreme AO systems on 8-10m telescopes will 1) mitigate risk for WFIRST-CGI by identifying numerous planets the mission can spectrally characterize, 2) validate performance requirements and motivate improvements to atmosphere models needed to unambiguously characterize solar system-analogues from space, and 3) mature novel technological innovations useful for space. Extremely Large Telescopes can deliver the first thermal infrared (10 $mu m$) images of rocky planets around Sun-like stars and identify biomarkers. These data provide a future NASA direct imaging flagship mission (i.e. HabEx, LUVOIR) with numerous exo-Earth candidates and critical ancillary information to help clarify whether these planets are habitable.
The search for Earth-like planets around Sun-like stars and the evaluation of their occurrence rate is a major topic of research for the exoplanetary community. Two key characteristics in defining a planet as Earth-like are having a radius between 1 and 1.75 times the Earths radius and orbiting inside the host stars habitable zone; the measurement of the planets radius and related error is however possible only via transit observations and is highly dependent on the precision of the host stars radius. A major improvement in the determination of stellar radius is represented by the unprecedented precision on parallax measurements provided by the Gaia astrometry satellite. We present a new estimate of the frequency of Earth-sized planets orbiting inside the host starss habitable zones, obtained using Gaia measurements of parallax for solar-type stars hosting validated planets in the Kepler field as input for reassessing the values of planetary radius and incident stellar flux. This updated occurrence rate can usefully inform future observational efforts searching for Earth-like system in the Sun backyard using a variety of techniques such as the spectrograph ESPRESSO, the space observatory PLATO and the proposed astrometric satellite Theia.
A critical question in the search for extraterrestrial life is whether exoEarths are Earth-like, in that they host life that progressively oxygenates their atmospheres roughly following Earths oxygenation history. This question could be answered statistically by searching for O$_2$ and O$_3$ on exoEarths detected by HabEx or LUVOIR. The point of this paper is to compare the ability of HabEx and LUVOIR to prevent a false negative answer to this question, in which we do not detect O$_2$ or O$_3$ on any planet even if all exoEarths are Earth-like. Our approach is to assign O$_2$ and O$_3$ values drawn from Earths history to a distribution of detectable exoEarths and determine whether O$_2$ and O$_3$ would be detectable using the Planetary Spectrum Generator. We find that if exoEarths tend to be Earth-like, we expect to detect O$_3$ with a LUVOIR-sized instrument. We also find that LUVOIR is unlikely to have a false negative scenario in the context of searching for Earth-like life on its targeted exoEarths. Because of that, if LUVOIR does not detect O$_2$ or O$_3$ on any exoEarths, we will be able to constrain the maximum number of exoEarths that could be Earth-like. In contrast, we find that even if all exoEarths are Earth-like, HabEx has up to a 22% chance of not detecting O$_2$ or O$_3$ on any of them. This is because HabEx will detect less planets and cannot reliably detect O$_2$ and O$_3$ at all potential Proterozoic levels. This is a strong argument for building a larger telescope such as LUVOIR if we want to determine whether exoEarths tend to be Earth-like.
New and unique opportunities now exist to look for technosignatures (TS) beyond traditional SETI radio searches, motivated by tremendous advances in exoplanet science and observing capabilities in recent years. Space agencies, both public and private, may be particularly interested in learning about the communitys views as to the optimal methods for future TS searches with current or forthcoming technology. This report is an effort in that direction. We put forward a set of possible mission concepts designed to search for TS, although the data supplied by such missions would also benefit other areas of astrophysics. We introduce a novel framework to analyze a broad diversity of TS in a quantitative manner. This framework is based on the concept of ichnoscale, which is a new parameter related to the scale of a TS cosmic footprint, together with the number of potential targets where such TS can be searched for, and whether or not it is continuous in time.
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