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Register a new userJWST Transit Spectra II: Constraining Aerosol Species, Particle-size Distributions, Temperature, and Metallicity for Cloudy Exoplanets
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JWST will provide moderate resolution transit spectra with continuous wavelength coverage from the optical to the mid-infrared for the first time. In this paper, we illustrate how different aerosol species, size-distributions, and spatial distributions encode information in JWST transit spectra. We use the transit spectral modeling code METIS, along with Mie theory and several flexible treatments of aerosol size and spatial distributions to perform parameter sensitivity studies, calculate transit contribution functions, compute Jacobians, and retrieve parameters with Markov Chain Monte Carlo. The broader wavelength coverage of JWST will likely encompass enough non-gray aerosol behavior to recover information about the species and size-distribution of particles, especially if distinct resonance features arising from the aerosols are present. Within the JWST wavelength range, the optical and mid-infrared typically provide information about 0.1-1 $mu$m sized aerosols, while the near-infrared to mid-infrared wavelengths usually provide information about gaseous absorption, even if aerosols are present. Strong gaseous absorption features in the infrared often remain visible, even when clouds and hazes are flattening the optical and NIR portion of the spectrum that is currently observable. For some combinations of aerosol properties, temperature, and surface gravity, one can make a precise measure of metallicity despite the presence of aerosols, but more often the retrieved metallicity of a cloudy or hazy atmosphere has significantly lower precision than for a clear atmosphere with otherwise similar properties. Future efforts to securely link aerosol properties to atmospheric metallicity and temperature in a physically motivated manner will ultimately enable a robust physical understanding of the processes at play in cloudy, hazy exoplanet atmospheres.
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Observational studies of exoplanets are suggestive of a ubiquitous presence of clouds. The current modelling techniques used in emission to account for the clouds tend to require prior knowledge of the cloud condensing species and often do not consider the scattering effects of the cloud. We explore the effects that thermal scattering has on the emission spectra by modelling a suite of hot Jupiter atmospheres with varying cloud single-scattering albedos (SSAs) and temperature profiles. We examine cases ranging from simple isothermal conditions to more complex structures and physically driven cloud modelling. We show that scattering from nightside clouds would lead to brightness temperatures that are cooler than the real atmospheric temperature if scattering is unaccounted for. We show that scattering can produce spectral signatures in the emission spectrum even for isothermal atmospheres. We identify the retrieval degeneracies and biases that arise in the context of simulated JWST spectra when the scattering from the clouds dominates the spectral shape. Finally, we propose a novel method of fitting the SSA spectrum of the cloud in emission retrievals, using a technique that does not require any prior knowledge of the cloud chemical or physical properties.
We present results from the first observations of the Hubble Space Telescope (HST) Panchromatic Comparative Exoplanet Treasury (PanCET) program for WASP-101b, a highly inflated hot Jupiter and one of the community targets proposed for the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) Early Release Science (ERS) program. From a single HST Wide Field Camera 3 (WFC3) observation, we find that the near-infrared transmission spectrum of WASP-101b contains no significant H$_2$O absorption features and we rule out a clear atmosphere at 13{sigma}. Therefore, WASP-101b is not an optimum target for a JWST ERS program aimed at observing strong molecular transmission features. We compare WASP-101b to the well studied and nearly identical hot Jupiter WASP-31b. These twin planets show similar temperature-pressure profiles and atmospheric features in the near-infrared. We suggest exoplanets in the same parameter space as WASP-101b and WASP-31b will also exhibit cloudy transmission spectral features. For future HST exoplanet studies, our analysis also suggests that a lower count limit needs to be exceeded per pixel on the detector in order to avoid unwanted instrumental systematics.
The James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) will measure exoplanet transmission and eclipse spectroscopy at un-precedented precisions to better understand planet structure, dynamics, chemistry and formation. These are essential tools on the march towards biosignature searches on potentially habitable planets. We explore a range of exoplanet atmospheric conditions and forecast the expected results with JWST. We take realistic CHIMERA models that match existing Spitzer and HST results and simulate the spectra achievable with the JWST MIRI + NIRCam Guaranteed Time Observations (GTO) survey. We then retrieve atmospheric parameters from these spectra to estimate the precision to which the planets atmospheric compositions can be measured. We find that emission spectra have well-constrained unimodal solutions but transmission spectra near 10X solar abundance and solar C/O ratios can suffer from bimodal solutions. Broad wavelength coverage as well as higher precision data can resolve bimodal solutions and provide dramatically better atmospheric parameter constraints. We find that metallicities can be measured to within 20% to 170%, which approaches the precisions on Solar System planets, and C/O ratios can be constrained to ~10% to 60%, assuming that observers can leverage short wavelength data to select the correct solution from the bimodal posteriors. These compositional precisions are sufficient to validate or refute predictions from disk formation models on final atmospheric abundances as long as their history is not erased by planet evolution processes. We also show the extent to which eclipse mapping with JWST is possible on our brightest system HD 189733 b.
We are on the verge of characterizing the atmospheres of terrestrial exoplanets in the habitable zones of M dwarf stars. Due to their large planet-to-star radius ratios and higher frequency of transits, terrestrial exoplanets orbiting M dwarf stars are favorable for transmission spectroscopy. In this work, we quantify the effect that water clouds have on the amplitude of water vapor transmission spectral features of terrestrial exoplanets orbiting M dwarf stars. To do so, we make synthetic transmission spectra from general circulation model (GCM) experiments of tidally locked planets. We improve upon previous work by considering how varying a broad range of planetary parameters affects transmission spectra. We find that clouds lead to a 10-100 times increase in the number of transits required to detect water features with the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) with varying rotation period, incident stellar flux, surface pressure, planetary radius, and surface gravity. We also find that there is a strong increase in the dayside cloud coverage in our GCM simulations with rotation periods $gtrsim 12 mathrm{days}$ for planets with Earths radius. This increase in cloud coverage leads to even stronger muting of spectral features for slowly rotating exoplanets orbiting M dwarf stars. We predict that it will be extremely challenging to detect water transmission features in the atmospheres of terrestrial exoplanets in the habitable zone of M dwarf stars with JWST. However, species that are well-mixed above the cloud deck (e.g., CO$_2$ and CH$_4$) may still be detectable on these planets with JWST.
We highlight how guaranteed time observations (GTOs) and early release science (ERS) will advance understanding of exoplanet atmospheres and provide a glimpse into what transiting exoplanet science will be done with JWST during its first year of operations. These observations of 27 transiting planets will deliver significant insights into the compositions, chemistry, clouds, and thermal profiles of warm-to-hot gas-dominated planets well beyond what we have learned from HST, Spitzer, and other observatories to date. These data and insights will in turn inform our understanding of planet formation, atmospheric transport and climate, and relationships between various properties. Some insight will likely be gained into rocky planet atmospheres as well. JWST will be the most important mission for characterizing exoplanet atmospheres in the 2020s, and this should be considered in assessing exoplanet science for the 2020s and 2030s and future facilities.
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