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Register a new userSpatial-Temporal Dynamic Graph Attention Networks for Ride-hailing Demand Prediction
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Weiguo Pian
Publication date
2020
fields
Informatics Engineering
and research's language is
English
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Ride-hailing demand prediction is an essential task in spatial-temporal data mining. Accurate Ride-hailing demand prediction can help to pre-allocate resources, improve vehicle utilization and user experiences. Graph Convolutional Networks (GCN) is commonly used to model the complicated irregular non-Euclidean spatial correlations. However, existing GCN-based ride-hailing demand prediction methods only assign the same importance to different neighbor regions, and maintain a fixed graph structure with static spatial relationships throughout the timeline when extracting the irregular non-Euclidean spatial correlations. In this paper, we propose the Spatial-Temporal Dynamic Graph Attention Network (STDGAT), a novel ride-hailing demand prediction method. Based on the attention mechanism of GAT, STDGAT extracts different pair-wise correlations to achieve the adaptive importance allocation for different neighbor regions. Moreover, in STDGAT, we design a novel time-specific commuting-based graph attention mode to construct a dynamic graph structure for capturing the dynamic time-specific spatial relationships throughout the timeline. Extensive experiments are conducted on a real-world ride-hailing demand dataset, and the experimental results demonstrate the significant improvement of our method on three evaluation metrics RMSE, MAPE and MAE over state-of-the-art baselines.
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Urban ride-hailing demand prediction is a crucial but challenging task for intelligent transportation system construction. Predictable ride-hailing demand can facilitate more reasonable vehicle scheduling and online car-hailing platform dispatch. Conventional deep learning methods with no external structured data can be accomplished via hybrid models of CNNs and RNNs by meshing plentiful pixel-level labeled data, but spatial data sparsity and limited learning capabilities on temporal long-term dependencies are still two striking bottlenecks. To address these limitations, we propose a new virtual graph modeling method to focus on significant demand regions and a novel Deep Multi-View Spatiotemporal Virtual Graph Neural Network (DMVST-VGNN) to strengthen learning capabilities of spatial dynamics and temporal long-term dependencies. Specifically, DMVST-VGNN integrates the structures of 1D Convolutional Neural Network, Multi Graph Attention Neural Network and Transformer layer, which correspond to short-term temporal dynamics view, spatial dynamics view and long-term temporal dynamics view respectively. In this paper, experiments are conducted on two large-scale New York City datasets in fine-grained prediction scenes. And the experimental results demonstrate effectiveness and superiority of DMVST-VGNN framework in significant citywide ride-hailing demand prediction.
Ride-hailing services are growing rapidly and becoming one of the most disruptive technologies in the transportation realm. Accurate prediction of ride-hailing trip demand not only enables cities to better understand peoples activity patterns, but also helps ride-hailing companies and drivers make informed decisions to reduce deadheading vehicle miles traveled, traffic congestion, and energy consumption. In this study, a convolutional neural network (CNN)-based deep learning model is proposed for multi-step ride-hailing demand prediction using the trip request data in Chengdu, China, offered by DiDi Chuxing. The CNN model is capable of accurately predicting the ride-hailing pick-up demand at each 1-km by 1-km zone in the city of Chengdu for every 10 minutes. Compared with another deep learning model based on long short-term memory, the CNN model is 30% faster for the training and predicting process. The proposed model can also be easily extended to make multi-step predictions, which would benefit the on-demand shared autonomous vehicles applications and fleet operators in terms of supply-demand rebalancing. The prediction error attenuation analysis shows that the accuracy stays acceptable as the model predicts more steps.
Flow prediction (e.g., crowd flow, traffic flow) with features of spatial-temporal is increasingly investigated in AI research field. It is very challenging due to the complicated spatial dependencies between different locations and dynamic temporal dependencies among different time intervals. Although measurements of both dependencies are employed, existing methods suffer from the following two problems. First, the temporal dependencies are measured either uniformly or bias against long-term dependencies, which overlooks the distinctive impacts of short-term and long-term temporal dependencies. Second, the existing methods capture spatial and temporal dependencies independently, which wrongly assumes that the correlations between these dependencies are weak and ignores the complicated mutual influences between them. To address these issues, we propose a Spatial-Temporal Self-Attention Network (ST-SAN). As the path-length of attending long-term dependency is shorter in the self-attention mechanism, the vanishing of long-term temporal dependencies is prevented. In addition, since our model relies solely on attention mechanisms, the spatial and temporal dependencies can be simultaneously measured. Experimental results on real-world data demonstrate that, in comparison with state-of-the-art methods, our model reduces the root mean square errors by 9% in inflow prediction and 4% in outflow prediction on Taxi-NYC data, which is very significant compared to the previous improvement.
Taxi demand prediction has recently attracted increasing research interest due to its huge potential application in large-scale intelligent transportation systems. However, most of the previous methods only considered the taxi demand prediction in origin regions, but neglected the modeling of the specific situation of the destination passengers. We believe it is suboptimal to preallocate the taxi into each region based solely on the taxi origin demand. In this paper, we present a challenging and worth-exploring task, called taxi origin-destination demand prediction, which aims at predicting the taxi demand between all region pairs in a future time interval. Its main challenges come from how to effectively capture the diverse contextual information to learn the demand patterns. We address this problem with a novel Contextualized Spatial-Temporal Network (CSTN), which consists of three components for the modeling of local spatial context (LSC), temporal evolution context (TEC) and global correlation context (GCC) respectively. Firstly, an LSC module utilizes two convolution neural networks to learn the local spatial dependencies of taxi demand respectively from the origin view and the destination view. Secondly, a TEC module incorporates both the local spatial features of taxi demand and the meteorological information to a Convolutional Long Short-term Memory Network (ConvLSTM) for the analysis of taxi demand evolution. Finally, a GCC module is applied to model the correlation between all regions by computing a global correlation feature as a weighted sum of all regional features, with the weights being calculated as the similarity between the corresponding region pairs. Extensive experiments and evaluations on a large-scale dataset well demonstrate the superiority of our CSTN over other compared methods for taxi origin-destination demand prediction.
Understanding individual mobility behavior is critical for modeling urban transportation. It provides deeper insights on the generative mechanisms of human movements. Emerging data sources such as mobile phone call detail records, social media posts, GPS observations, and smart card transactions have been used before to reveal individual mobility behavior. In this paper, we report the spatio-temporal mobility behaviors using large-scale data collected from a ride-hailing service platform. Based on passenger-level travel information, we develop an algorithm to identify users visited places and the category of those places. To characterize temporal movement patterns, we reveal the differences in trip generation characteristics between commuting and non-commuting trips and the distribution of gap time between consecutive trips. To understand spatial mobility patterns, we observe the distribution of the number of visited places and their rank, the spatial distribution of residences and workplaces, and the distributions of travel distance and travel time. Our analysis highlights the differences in mobility patterns of the users of ride-hailing services, compared to the findings of existing mobility studies based on other data sources. It shows the potential of developing high-resolution individual-level mobility models that can predict the demand of emerging mobility services with high fidelity and accuracy.
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