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Register a new userData-Driven Multi-step Demand Prediction for Ride-hailing Services Using Convolutional Neural Network
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Added by
Chao Wang
Publication date
2019
fields
Informatics Engineering
and research's language is
English
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Ride-hailing services are growing rapidly and becoming one of the most disruptive technologies in the transportation realm. Accurate prediction of ride-hailing trip demand not only enables cities to better understand peoples activity patterns, but also helps ride-hailing companies and drivers make informed decisions to reduce deadheading vehicle miles traveled, traffic congestion, and energy consumption. In this study, a convolutional neural network (CNN)-based deep learning model is proposed for multi-step ride-hailing demand prediction using the trip request data in Chengdu, China, offered by DiDi Chuxing. The CNN model is capable of accurately predicting the ride-hailing pick-up demand at each 1-km by 1-km zone in the city of Chengdu for every 10 minutes. Compared with another deep learning model based on long short-term memory, the CNN model is 30% faster for the training and predicting process. The proposed model can also be easily extended to make multi-step predictions, which would benefit the on-demand shared autonomous vehicles applications and fleet operators in terms of supply-demand rebalancing. The prediction error attenuation analysis shows that the accuracy stays acceptable as the model predicts more steps.
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Urban ride-hailing demand prediction is a crucial but challenging task for intelligent transportation system construction. Predictable ride-hailing demand can facilitate more reasonable vehicle scheduling and online car-hailing platform dispatch. Conventional deep learning methods with no external structured data can be accomplished via hybrid models of CNNs and RNNs by meshing plentiful pixel-level labeled data, but spatial data sparsity and limited learning capabilities on temporal long-term dependencies are still two striking bottlenecks. To address these limitations, we propose a new virtual graph modeling method to focus on significant demand regions and a novel Deep Multi-View Spatiotemporal Virtual Graph Neural Network (DMVST-VGNN) to strengthen learning capabilities of spatial dynamics and temporal long-term dependencies. Specifically, DMVST-VGNN integrates the structures of 1D Convolutional Neural Network, Multi Graph Attention Neural Network and Transformer layer, which correspond to short-term temporal dynamics view, spatial dynamics view and long-term temporal dynamics view respectively. In this paper, experiments are conducted on two large-scale New York City datasets in fine-grained prediction scenes. And the experimental results demonstrate effectiveness and superiority of DMVST-VGNN framework in significant citywide ride-hailing demand prediction.
The rapid growth of ride-hailing platforms has created a highly competitive market where businesses struggle to make profits, demanding the need for better operational strategies. However, real-world experiments are risky and expensive for these platforms as they deal with millions of users daily. Thus, a need arises for a simulated environment where they can predict users reactions to changes in the platform-specific parameters such as trip fares and incentives. Building such a simulation is challenging, as these platforms exist within dynamic environments where thousands of users regularly interact with one another. This paper presents a framework to mimic and predict user, specifically driver, behaviors in ride-hailing services. We use a data-driven hybrid reinforcement learning and imitation learning approach for this. First, the agent utilizes behavioral cloning to mimic driver behavior using a real-world data set. Next, reinforcement learning is applied on top of the pre-trained agents in a simulated environment, to allow them to adapt to changes in the platform. Our framework provides an ideal playground for ride-hailing platforms to experiment with platform-specific parameters to predict drivers behavioral patterns.
Ride-hailing demand prediction is an essential task in spatial-temporal data mining. Accurate Ride-hailing demand prediction can help to pre-allocate resources, improve vehicle utilization and user experiences. Graph Convolutional Networks (GCN) is commonly used to model the complicated irregular non-Euclidean spatial correlations. However, existing GCN-based ride-hailing demand prediction methods only assign the same importance to different neighbor regions, and maintain a fixed graph structure with static spatial relationships throughout the timeline when extracting the irregular non-Euclidean spatial correlations. In this paper, we propose the Spatial-Temporal Dynamic Graph Attention Network (STDGAT), a novel ride-hailing demand prediction method. Based on the attention mechanism of GAT, STDGAT extracts different pair-wise correlations to achieve the adaptive importance allocation for different neighbor regions. Moreover, in STDGAT, we design a novel time-specific commuting-based graph attention mode to construct a dynamic graph structure for capturing the dynamic time-specific spatial relationships throughout the timeline. Extensive experiments are conducted on a real-world ride-hailing demand dataset, and the experimental results demonstrate the significant improvement of our method on three evaluation metrics RMSE, MAPE and MAE over state-of-the-art baselines.
New forms of on-demand transportation such as ride-hailing and connected autonomous vehicles are proliferating, yet are a challenging use case for electric vehicles (EV). This paper explores the feasibility of using deep reinforcement learning (DRL) to optimize a driving and charging policy for a ride-hailing EV agent, with the goal of reducing costs and emissions while increasing transportation service provided. We introduce a data-driven simulation of a ride-hailing EV agent that provides transportation service and charges energy at congested charging infrastructure. We then formulate a test case for the sequential driving and charging decision making problem of the agent and apply DRL to optimize the agents decision making policy. We evaluate the performance against hand-written policies and show that our agent learns to act competitively without any prior knowledge.
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